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[SMM Thread Analysis] Thread circumference carding: the rising trend shows a sharp angle, and the basic surface is beginning to improve.
Jul 19,2019 17:16CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[review and Prospect]:

Futures: this week's snail trend is weak, as of today snail 1910 contract settlement price 3970, compared with Friday 3992 yuan / ton, down 22 yuan / ton.

Spot: the national average price of screw thread rose 1.8 yuan / ton to 4044.6 yuan / ton from 4042.8 yuan / ton last Friday. The weekly average price rose 7 yuan per ton, compared with an average weekly price of 4057.7 yuan per ton this week.

Futures deviated slightly this week, with snails continuing last week's decline without particularly good news, while spot prices remained strong despite a weaker fundamentals this week (thread production rallied again this week) for the following reasons:

First of all, on the supply side, on the one hand, under the environmental protection and production restriction policy, all independent rolling mills in Tangshan area have been closed; on the other hand, from the profit situation of steel mills, under the strong pull-up of the raw material side (iron ore, coke price), the profit compression and expansion is inevitable, and the willingness to push up the price is strong. Short process steel plant, recently, electric arc furnace steel plant again into the loss state (according to SMM data model calculation, as of July 18, 2350 yuan / ton tax scrap steel price calculation, electric arc furnace steel plant ton steel loss 5 yuan / ton), and scrap steel price momentum is still strong (a few days ago East China mainstream steel plant scrap price increase 60 yuan / ton), so with the continued deterioration of profit and loss situation, follow-up electric arc furnace steel plant thread supply may be reduced. In addition, the recent thread "quality inspection" in some parts of East China is under way, therefore, the improvement of thread supply may not be sustainable.

Secondly, on the demand side, with the emergence of plum in the southern region, the desalination of seasonal interference will make the release of rigid demand for building materials more smooth.

Therefore, generally speaking, at present, the basic improvement of thread has begun to show signs, spot prices pull up power to strengthen, next week near the end of the month, if the environmental protection production restriction policy stimulus, thread spot price or show concussion strong situation.

 

[fundamentals]

Under the influence of the recent maintenance end of the steel mills with maintenance plans and the relaxation of production restrictions in some steel enterprises in Tangshan, the thread supply has increased slightly again this week. However, the situation in which it continues to push higher is not sustainable.

On the one hand, Tangshan Fengrun District issued a strengthened control plan for the prevention and control of air pollution in the second half of July, requiring local independent rolling mills to implement production restrictions. According to SMM research, as of today, Tangshan Kaiping District, Yutian County, Fengrun District of the independent rolling mill has been closed. On the other hand, according to the statistical model of SMM data, as of the 18th, under the rise of scrap prices (Shagang and Zhongtian raised scrap prices again in the past two days), arc furnace steel mills once again turned profits into losses, and the subsequent start-up rate may decline again.

 

2. Demand side: the downstream industry is running smoothly, and the seasonal interference weakens the demand release.

This week, the National Bureau of Statistics released real estate-related data, from the data point of view, in the off-season, rigid demand performance exceeded expectations, the real estate industry continued to operate smoothly, the infrastructure industry rose steadily. With the emergence of plum in the southern market in late July, the reduction of precipitation will accelerate the release of demand for building materials.

[inventory]

This week, the situation of double increase in the social pool of the factory continued, with the total treasury increasing by 238600 tons compared with the previous month. The expansion of the general database is mainly dragged down by the social database. This week's social database is up 159900 tons from last week, or + 2.8 per cent from the previous month.

On the one hand, terminal demand, demand this week is still in the off-season, in addition to Monday macro positive data led to some transactions, the next few days the market mood to cool. On the other hand, the output of steel mills has continued to increase this week. At present, steel mills in Tangshan and Wu'an areas are still in a state of limited production, and steel mills in other areas are still in a state of full production because of profits.

[macro and policy aspects]

1. Ministry of Ecological Environment and other four ministries issue "Comprehensive Control Plan of Air pollution in Industrial furnaces and kilns"

The Ministry of Ecology and Environment and other four ministries issued the Programme for the Comprehensive Control of Air pollution in Industrial furnaces and kilns. The key tasks mainly include: (1) strengthening the adjustment of industrial structure. Strict environmental access for construction projects. It is strictly forbidden to increase the production capacity of iron and steel, coking, electrolytic aluminum, casting, cement and flat glass, and strictly implement the measures for the replacement of production capacity in iron and steel, cement, flat glass and other industries. We will increase backward production capacity and eliminate substandard industrial furnaces and kilns. (2) to speed up the replacement of clean and low carbon fuels. (3) to carry out in-depth control of pollution. We will promote industrial furnaces and kilns to meet the discharge standards in an all-round way. (4) to carry out the comprehensive renovation of industrial parks and industrial clusters.

two。 Transmission by the National Development and Reform Commission: resolutely prevent the withdrawal of iron and steel and coal from production capacity and resurgence

On the morning of 16 July, the National Development and Reform Commission held a regular press conference on the theme of July. Meng Wei, deputy director of the political research office and spokesman for the committee, said: in the third quarter, the relevant departments will carry out supervision and inspection of the work of eliminating backwardness and resolving excess capacity in the steel and coal sectors, so as to resolutely prevent the resurgence of withdrawn production capacity. In the field of iron and steel, the National Development and Reform Commission, in conjunction with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration of Market Supervision, issued the "Circular on the Prevention of excess production capacity in the Iron and Steel Industry". It puts forward clear requirements for local governments to effectively prevent new production capacity in violation of laws and regulations and the resurgence of "ground strip steel". In view of the report on the illegal and illegal new production capacity of Taidu Iron and Steel and Guoxin Industry in Guangdong Province, the relevant member units of the interministerial joint meeting were organized to carry out on-the-spot verification, and the results of the verification were informed.

3. Comprehensive return of Supervision and upgrading Real Estate Trust

Since the second half of the year, the relevant departments have strengthened the "window guidance" for trust companies under their jurisdiction. According to the information disclosed by some regions, the positive and negative list of "can and can not" of the real estate business of trust companies in the second half of the year is clear: equity income rights, specific asset income rights, or the way of arranging bets for housing enterprises to provide land front-end financing and other models have been suspended, can only do in line with the "432" (project four certificates complete, 30% capital and secondary qualification) requirements of loans, real equity investment; In terms of industry investment, indemnificatory housing, industrial incubation, urban renewal or old city transformation, rigid demand housing and other projects have been strongly encouraged. The rectification of real estate trust is targeted, therefore, the leverage of the property market will continue to be limited, real estate speculation will not get out of control, "housing does not speculate" the direction will not deviate. At the same time, it can also give full play to the decentralized financing risk of real estate trust, and promote the real estate docking of the real economy and the needs of the people to live in peace.

4. It is prohibited to carry out environmental protection classification evaluation in 15 industries, such as iron and steel, coal and so on.

China will make greater efforts to regulate the production limit of high energy-consuming industries more accurately. It is reported that the relevant departments are planning to carry out performance grading evaluation and differentiation management in 15 key industries, such as iron and steel, coal, cement, chemical industry and so on. Through the production process level, treatment technology and other indicators to formulate performance rating rules, the industry enterprises will be divided into A, B, C grades, in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and surrounding, Yangtze River Delta region, Fenwei Plain and other key environmental protection areas, according to different weather conditions, according to the grade to take different measures to stop production.

5. The largest number of new local bonds issued in June was 717 billion yuan in land reserves.

In June, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) issued 183 local bonds, totaling 899.551 billion yuan, an increase of 196 percent over the previous month, according to data released by the Ministry of Finance. Of this total, 717.035 billion yuan was issued for new bonds, and the largest amount of funds was invested in land reserves, reaching 190.315 billion yuan, accounting for 26.5 percent of the total. The data show that the new bond funds in June will be used for transportation and transportation 125.829 billion yuan; municipal construction 56.371 billion yuan; land reserve 190.315 billion yuan; indemnificatory housing, shantytown transformation 184.862 billion yuan; education, culture and health, social security 43.005 billion yuan; ecological construction, environmental protection 33.261 billion yuan; poverty alleviation, agriculture, forestry and water 53.481 billion yuan; other 29.911 billion yuan.

6. In the first half of the year, China's GDP increased by 6.3 percent over the same period last year, and the operation of the national economy made steady progress.

The gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of the year was 45.0933 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.3 percent over the same period last year, according to data released today by the National Bureau of Statistics. Generally speaking, the operation of the national economy in the first half of the year was within a reasonable range, continuing the overall steady and steady development trend. On a quarterly basis, it rose 6.4% in the first quarter from a year earlier and 6.2% in the second quarter. In terms of industry, the added value of the primary industry was 2.3207 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.0 percent over the same period last year; the added value of the secondary industry was 17.9984 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.8 percent; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 24.7743 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.0 percent.

7. The scale of social financing in China increased by 2.26 trillion yuan in June.

China's social financing increased by 2.26 trillion yuan in June, expected to be 1.9 trillion yuan, compared with a previous value of 1.4 trillion yuan. China's new yuan loans in June were 1.66 trillion yuan, expected to be 1.675 trillion yuan, after a previous value of 1.18 trillion yuan.

8. Ministry of Commerce: urges the United States to correct its erroneous practices in the countervailing investigation against China

On July 16, Geneva time, the WTO released the report of the Appellate body against the implementation of China v. US countervailing measures (DS437), ruling that the US side was involved in 11 cases of countervailing measures in violation of WTO rules. The spokesman said: in this case, the original panel of experts and the appellant body have ruled that the countervailing measures involved in the case violated the WTO rules and asked the US side to correct its violations. However, it is regrettable that the United States continues to use violations in the process of implementing the WTO ruling. The decision of the Appellate body once again proves that the United States has violated WTO rules and repeatedly abused trade relief measures, which has seriously damaged the fairness and fairness of the international trade environment.

[summary of major events]

In the first half of the year, the land purchase area of real estate development enterprises nationwide was 80.35 million square meters, down 27.5 percent from the same period last year, a decrease of 5.7 percentage points from the previous five months, and the transaction price of land was 381.1 billion yuan, down 27.6 percent from the same period last year. The average transaction price of commercial housing in the whole country was 9329 yuan per square meter, up 7.5 percent from the same period last year, or 0.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous five months. In the first half of the year, the area of commercial housing sales fell 1.8 percent from the same period last year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous five months, and funds put in place by real estate development enterprises increased by 7.2 percent over the same period last year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous five months. The decline in multiple indicators shows that the market heat brought about by "Xiao Yangchun" is gradually fading. In addition, the financing environment of housing enterprises has continued to tighten in the past two months, and the national property market is expected to continue to cool down. The China Index Research Institute predicted that in 2019, the national real estate market will show the characteristics of "high market scale, stable prices, and low-speed growth in investment and new construction."

In the first half of the year, the added value of industries above the national scale increased by 6.0 percent over the same period last year, 0.5 percentage points lower than in the first quarter. In June, the added value of industries above the national scale increased by 6.3 percent over the same period last year, 1.3 percentage points faster than in May, and 0.68 percent higher than the previous month.

On the 15th, Fengrun District of Tangshan City issued a plan for strengthening the prevention and control of air pollution in the second half of July: Tianzhu and Xinbaotai were strictly carried out in accordance with the stop limit ratio required by the municipal government, allowing production equipment to meet ultra-low emission standards; Independent steel rolling and other enterprises shall be organized by the District Power Management Office (District Development and Reform Bureau) to organize all the power supply companies in the district to remove the meter and cut off the power on July 16, and the major customer enterprises of the city power supply company. Villages and towns, streets and development zones are responsible for affixing seals to electrical cabinets and main production equipment.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in June 2019, China's steel bar production was 22.693 million tons, an increase of 29.4 percent over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to June was 118.764 million tons, an increase of 19.3 percent over the same period last year. In June, the output of wire rod (wire rod) in China was 14.211 million tons, an increase of 3.0 percent over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to June was 77.379 million tons, an increase of 14.6 percent over the same period last year.

According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 25 excavator manufacturers included in the statistics in June 2019 sold a total of 15121 excavators of all types, an increase of 6.58 per cent over the same period last year. Sales in the domestic market were 12426 units, down 0.31 per cent from a year earlier. Exports were 2695 units, an increase of 56.4 per cent over the same period last year. From January to June, total sales totaled 137207 units, an increase of 14.2 percent over the same period last year; cumulative domestic sales of 124872 units, an increase of 12.3 percent over the same period last year; and cumulative exports of 12335 units, an increase of 38.7 percent over the same period last year. After a brief pullback in May, excavator sales returned to positive growth in June. The negative growth in May was mainly related to three factors: first, sales exceeded expectations in the first quarter, overdrawn demand in the second quarter, and second, a higher base in the same period of 2018. Third, the demand for the replacement of old equipment in stock is weakened.

6. He Wenbo of the China Iron and Steel Association: 98% of the increase in crude steel output in the first five months was used in domestic steel consumption demand.

Crude steel production rose 10.2 per cent in the first five months of this year from a year earlier, an increase of 37.44 million tons. Of these, 98 per cent of the increase in output was spent on domestic steel consumption demand, and 2/3 met the demand in the construction sector. The current reality is that the continuous investment in capital construction has brought about the continuous growth of iron and steel demand, and China's steel industry has met the supply and demand of iron and steel materials for production and construction in the development of the national economy. Without a high increase in steel production, the current scale of infrastructure could not be achieved.

7. Ministry of Finance: the national general public budget revenue exceeded 10 trillion yuan in the first half of the year.

On the morning of the 16th, the Ministry of Finance released the national revenue and expenditure situation for the first half of this year. In the first half of the year, the country's general public budget revenue exceeded 10 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4 percent over the same period last year, of which non-tax revenue increased by 21.4 percent. At the same time, the national general public budget expenditure exceeded 12 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.7 percent over the same period last year, and the growth rate was significantly faster than that of income.

Retail sales of broad passenger cars and new energy passenger cars increased in August and June compared with the same period last year.

Ride federation: retail sales of broad passenger cars in china rose 4.9% in June from a year earlier to 1.8 million, the first year-on-year increase in 13 months. At the same time, although the new energy passenger car market entered the subsidy transition period in June, manufacturers wholesale new energy vehicles achieved a good sales level of 134000 units, up 38.7 percent from the previous month and 98.7 percent from the same period last year. It shows that new energy passenger cars are gradually getting rid of their dependence on policy. From January to June this year, the country sold 577000 new energy narrow passenger cars, an increase of 65.9 per cent over the same period last year.

9. In the second round, the first batch of central eco-environmental protection inspectors were all stationed.

The second round of central ecological and environmental protection inspectors first stationed in Shanghai, Fujian Province, Hainan Province, Chongqing, Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, as well as China Minmetals Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Minmetals Group), China Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Sinochem). According to the arrangement, the first batch of central eco-environmental protection inspectors in the second round will be stationed for one month. During the period of arrival, each inspection team set up a special duty telephone and post office box respectively to accept letters and calls from the object of inspection on the protection of the ecological environment.

10. Dobo: the handling fee for iron ore transactions shall be adjusted to 1 / 10 / 10 of the transaction amount

The firm issued a notice that from July 18, 2019 (that is, July 17 night trading section): iron ore futures trading fee standard adjusted to 1 / 10,000 of the transaction amount. Among them, the iron ore futures 1909 contract intra-day trading fee standard adjusted to the transaction amount of 2.5%, non-day trading fee standard is 1 / 10 000 of the transaction amount. The standard of intra-day trading fee for iron ore futures 2001 contract is adjusted to 1.5 / 10,000 of the transaction amount, and the standard of non-intra-day trading fee is 1 / 10 / 10, 000 of the transaction amount.

11. More than 6000 km of urban rail lines were put into operation in mainland China in the first half of the year.

According to the China Urban Rail Transit Association, as of June 30, 2019, a total of 37 cities in mainland China had put into operation 6126.82 kilometers of urban rail transit lines. Wenzhou and Jinan have been added to two operating cities, 12 new operating lines and 365.32 km of new operating lines.

twelve。 Chongqing-West Chongqing-Kunming High Speed Railway strives to start Construction during the year

On July 10, with the conclusion of the "216" cooperation between Chongqing and Sichuan, the two provinces and cities will jointly promote the integrated development of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, which includes 204 major projects and events, of which 70 are infrastructure interconnection projects.

13. the scale of tax reduction for two rounds of value-added tax deepening reform is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan

According to the State Administration of Taxation, the overall net VAT tax cut was 221.8 billion yuan from April to May 2019, with tax cuts for all industries. Among them, the effect of tax reduction in manufacturing industry is obvious, with a net tax reduction of 97 billion yuan from April to May, ranking first in all industries, and a net tax reduction of 80.8 billion yuan in wholesale and retail industries.

14. Trump to sign Executive order to promote the use of Steel made in the United States for Government contract projects

White House trade adviser Navarro told Fox News that President Trump will sign an executive order today to promote the use of domestic steel in federal contract projects, requiring a national production rate of 95 percent of the steel used in government projects.

15. In the first half of 2019, the country's three major indicators of shipbuilding continued to lead the way in terms of one liter and two drops in international market share.

According to the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to June 2019, the national shipbuilding capacity was 19.66 million deadweight tons, an increase of 4.2 percent over the same period last year, of which the total tonnage of seagoing ships was 5.71 million revised gross tons, and the order for new vessels was 12.06 million deadweight tons, down 46.9 percent from the same period last year, of which 3.93 million gross tons were revised for seagoing ships. As of the end of June, orders for hand-held ships were 81.72 million deadweight tons, down 14.3 percent from the same period last year, of which 26.84 million were revised gross tons for seagoing ships, accounting for 90.8 percent of the total. In the first half of this year, China's shipbuilding completion, new orders and hand-held orders accounted for 37.7%, 51.8% and 42.9% of the world market share in deadweight tonnage, respectively.

16. Shanxi Province joins the off-peak production of key Industries

From October 1, enterprises that fail to complete the task of annual governance and transformation (including unorganized emission management) will stop production. Iron and steel, building materials, coking, casting, non-ferrous, chemical and other high emission industries, to achieve the corresponding industry air pollutant emission limit and complete the requirements of unorganized emission control, the heating period to implement differential cross-peak production. Production facilities that belong to the category of "Industrial structure Adjustment guidance Catalog", with a production limit of 40%. Among them, located in the district and the surrounding area of 10 km, the production limit of 50%, does not affect the production safety of the case can be taken to stop production error peak. Enterprises that belong to the category of industrial policy incentives have a production limit of 20%. Among them, enterprises located within 10 kilometers of the built-up area and the surrounding area, with a production limit of 30 percent.

17. The output of household appliances increased in June compared with the same period last year.

In June, China produced 7.461 million refrigerators, an increase of 2.8 percent over the same period last year to 42.504 million units from January to June, an increase of 4.5 percent over the same period last year.

In June, China produced 21.331 million air conditioners, an increase of 2.4 percent over the same period last year to 119.788 million units from January to June, an increase of 10.2 percent over the same period last year.

In June, China produced 6.502 million washing machines, an increase of 19.8 percent over the same period last year to 37.325 million units from January to June, an increase of 9.2 percent over the same period last year.

In June, China produced 14.048 million color TV sets, down 1.7 percent from January to June, an increase of 4.6 percent over the same period last year.

 

Weekly review

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