[SMM Iron and Steel Analysis] Hot rolled Steel Plant maintenance tracking-supply "decompression" or Tangshan environmental protection production limit "reliable"

This week, the arrival of goods in the mainstream markets continued to increase, and social inventories continued to accumulate (social stocks have accumulated for seven weeks in a row, reaching 2.3835 million tons last week), causing greater pressure on spot prices in the market. In the later period, in addition to Tangshan environmental protection to limit production and reduce production, ease the pressure of market arrival, steel mills in other areas can help through maintenance, SMM carried out a comprehensive follow-up investigation.

According to the investigation and feedback of hot rolling steel mills, except for Tangshan steel mills, the current maintenance situation of steel mills in other areas is less, and the data statistics show that the total amount of hot rolling affected by steel mill maintenance in July is about 102700 tons, of which 53% has been reflected in the early July, and only 48200 tons in the late July. The overall impact is small.

At the same time, most steel mills said that the current hot rolling production is still profitable (the current hot rolling mill profit is about 200 yuan / ton), so the hot rolling production line is almost in a state of full load production, and said that there is no major maintenance plan in late July.

Therefore, on the whole, whether the supply pressure can be alleviated in the later period is still concentrated on whether the production limitation and reduction of environmental protection in Tangshan can be obviously reflected. From the tracking of Tangshan environmental protection and production restrictions, the overall production restrictions are still relatively strict, coupled with the recent new environmental protection policies requiring all rolling mills in Fengrun District of Tangshan to stop production (investigation and feedback that some rolling mills have been implemented one after another, and the overall implementation of SMM will continue to be followed up). It can be seen that the late environmental protection production restrictions are still strict, so although the maintenance of steel mills is difficult to help supply "decompression", However, there is still much room for environmental protection to limit production and reduce production. [SMM Steel]

The specific maintenance situation of the steel plant is as follows: