Macroscopically: the dollar strengthened sharply in the evening, mainly because of strong retail sales data in the US in June. Retail sales rose 0.4% in June, better than expected, according to figures released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday. The expected increase was 0.1%. The previous value was revised down to 0.4% from 0.5%. Us retail news data performed well, boosting the dollar. Us retail sales rose faster than expected in June, suggesting strong consumer spending will help mitigate the blow to the economy caused by weak business investment, according to US retail sales data. Separately, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated on Tuesday that he would "take appropriate action" to maintain the expansion of the US economy. Chicago Fed Chairman Evans said he thought it necessary to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost inflation. According to CME "Fed observation": the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.00% 2.25% in July is 66.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 33.8%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.00% to 2.25% by September is 28.0%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points and 75 basis points is 52.5% and 19.5%, respectively.
Nickel spot market: SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 106200 107800 yuan / ton. Russian nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 discount about 500yuan / ton, more stable than yesterday. Although the spot market trading is light in the near future, but the Russian nickel paste has not gradually expanded, mainly because of the serious import loss, there has not been a large number of sources of goods flowing into China in the near future, and the holders believe that even if the rising water is reduced, the stimulation for the transaction is limited. Jinchuan nickel than Shanghai nickel 1908 contract generally reported a water rise of 1000 yuan / ton, slightly narrower than yesterday. Prices continue to rise today, the spot market transactions are cold, only a few downstream, because of the future bullish, into the market procurement, but the overall wait-and-see. The ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company was quoted at 107500 yuan, an increase of 500 yuan per ton from yesterday, and the mainstream transaction was 106 500 yuan to 108 000 yuan per ton. Although the nickel price continued to rise in the afternoon, close to 110000, but there are large steel mills into the market to purchase nickel plate, transaction improvement, trading volume is considerable, the mainstream transaction at 107500 to 109, 000 yuan / ton.
Nickel pig iron: July 16, according to SMM research, a northern factory on July 9 to send electricity to a 33000KVA hot furnace, has been slag today, is expected to be able to produce iron in the near future. The output of 33000KVA ore furnace can reach 5000 physical tons in normal production, but because the furnace has not been produced for a long time, the specific output still needs to be concerned. In addition, the power limit in Wulanchabu area currently has little impact on the production of nickel pig iron plants.
Stainless steel: the guiding price of cold rolling in stainless steel plant on July 16 is generally flat than that on Monday. According to SMM research, the price of state 3042B edge cutting coil in Wuxi market is 14600 14800 yuan / ton, and the price of private 3042B rough edge roll is 14400 14500 yuan / ton. Recently, as a result of nickel prices continue to rise, stainless steel prices rose slightly, but the actual demand downstream is weak, the overall transaction is light.
In terms of stocks: nickel stocks were 143200 tons on 16 July, a decrease of 1002 tons compared with 15 July.
Nickel price judgment: in addition to the bullish price factor is still dominant, the recent strong rise in nickel prices, and the recent improvement in the macro environment, the strengthening of expectations of interest rate cuts in the dollar and the performance of nickel's own fundamentals are still good, stainless steel plants have not significantly reduced production as expected, the market has revised the pessimistic expectations of the previous period. In addition, from the emotional point of view, the recent frequent natural disasters in Indonesia also provide a certain amount of hype. In the short term, there is a strong trend, but there is no substantial and obvious support in the case of high space is limited.