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[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 20190 715: macro data exceed expectations, black again welcomes bullish feast
Jul 15,2019 16:10CST
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Source:SMM
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In terms of volume and price: RB1910 closed 65 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 4030 yuan / ton; HC1910 closed 61 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 3898 yuan / ton; I1909 closed 22 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 895 yuan / ton; J1909 closed 49 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 2167.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 sold 3.69 million transactions, down 38500 to 2.52 million; I1909, 1.85 million, down 4988 to 1.4 million; in terms of capital flows, the net inflow of RB1910 funds today was 9.03 million yuan; and the net inflow of I1909 funds was 211 million yuan.

Point of view: strong operation. Today, a number of macro data released, all exceeding market expectations, boosting the stock market, futures market, black once again ushered in a bullish feast. Early this morning, it was reported that a 6.6 magnitude earthquake occurred in the waters of western Australia, which was very close to the mining area, rekindling the enthusiasm of the ore. I1909 rose rapidly at the beginning of trading and rushed up to 898.5, just one step away from 900, and then fell back, but rose again to 896 in late trading. The average daily output of crude steel reached another all-time high in June, indicating that China's steel production is still strong, and the demand for ore is worry-free in the short term. It is expected that the ore is expected to run on the strong side under the basic support and disk discount, and the possibility of high before breaking is not ruled out. Coke today, second only to iron ore, has become another star of the black system. It is reported that metallurgical coke in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province has started to increase by 50 to 100 yuan / ton, and now quasi-first-class wet report 250, quasi-first-level dry report 2200, spot increase range further expanded, once again boost the market, coke is expected to usher in a wave of resonance rising market. In terms of materials, the logic of weakening the demand for major transactions in the market in the near future, under the influence of Everbright Trust suspending the raising of real estate projects and the poor demand caused by rainy weather, the thread and hot roll performance was relatively weak last week, but today's real estate data exceeded market expectations, and real estate weakness expectations were falsified. At the same time, according to the enhanced control plan issued by Tangshan Fengrun District, The vast majority of billet section steel plants will stop production in the early hours of July 16 in accordance with the policy, and the decline on the supply side is expected to be strengthened again. Coupled with the strong collective boost of raw materials, the price of finished steel has stopped falling ahead of schedule today. We continue to be optimistic about the site expectations before the 70th anniversary and the suppression of production by environmental protection and production restrictions. It is expected that there is still room for upward growth. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3900, 4100); I1909 contract range (850915), middle line multiple single hold, short-term high throw low suction. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.

 

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