[SMM Thread Analysis] demand release is being dragged down by many parties. Is there hope of "seeing the light of day" next week?

[review and Prospect]:

Futures: this week's snail trend is weak, as of today snail 1910 contract settlement price of 3992, compared with Friday 4014 yuan / ton, down 22 yuan / ton.

Spot: the national average price of thread today fell from 4076.1 yuan / ton last Friday to 4042.8 yuan / ton. The average weekly price fell 46.6 yuan per ton, compared with an average price of 4050.2 yuan per ton this week.

This week thread period prices are weak shock trend, the overall performance of the "malaise", but the spot performance is weaker than futures. Mainly due to: first of all, last week limited production news to stimulate the rise in current prices, businesses in the "buy up or down" psychological impact of high enthusiasm for goods, resulting in demand for overdraft phenomenon; Secondly, under the influence of the continuous heavy precipitation weather (the Ministry of Water Resources and the General Administration of National Defense issued flood warning one after another this week), the terminal demand performance is not good, and the futures performance is not satisfactory, aggravating the pessimism of the market.

As far as next week is concerned, on the supply side, although the screw thread production under the influence of production restrictions has fallen somewhat since the beginning of this week, according to the Tangshan production restriction documents, which are the strongest in terms of production restrictions, some steel enterprises will no longer passively reduce production after the 15th. In addition, steel prices have risen since July compared with June, and steel mills have improved their profitability and a higher willingness to take the initiative to produce, so production has fallen or continues to slow down. On the demand side, although the southern region will continue to "plum" after entering the middle and late days, the range of precipitation has not been significantly narrowed, the situation of demand weakened by high temperature precipitation weather has not been significantly improved, and spot prices are still under great pressure. However, due to the release of demand is not very smooth, some steel mills feedback that the current plant warehouse is at a normal high level, so in the raw material prices on the cost of steel mills still have a strong "support" situation, steel mills have a strong willingness to push up the price, the price has formed a certain support.

Taken together, spot prices are expected to remain weak and stable next week without new policy documents or news stimulus (June macro data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 15th).

[fundamentals]

Although under the "inducement" that the thread has the highest profit in the common steel varieties, the steel mills have taken the initiative to produce unabated, in which the mainstream steel enterprises in East China have increased their production schedule, but the increment is still not as good as the reduction. Under the influence of environmental protection and production restrictions, steel enterprises in some areas, especially Tangshan, have to passively reduce production. According to SMM research, the threaded steel production of 31 steel mills mainly producing building materials in July was 0.38% lower than that in June. Among them, the volume of domestic trade investment decreased by 0.63% compared with June.

However, it is worth noting that due to the Tangshan released on July 2 in the latest production restrictions related documents named some local steel companies after July 15 can not be limited by production restrictions, supply or once again slightly increased.

2. Demand side: the real estate industry continues to be stable, and infrastructure helps boost the demand for building materials.

First of all, the real estate industry. Recently, not only some trust companies with excessive growth rate and excessive increment of real estate trust business have been warned of interviews, some banks with more real estate loans and faster growth have accepted the "window guidance" of relevant departments, and signals of real estate financing policy tightening have been coming out constantly. But on the other hand, according to statistics, 28 cities have recently raised the upper limit of housing provident fund deposits, and the rigid demand of the real estate industry has been "encouraged" by the policy. Overall, the housing market regulation and control is still "stable" as the main tone, the support of building materials demand is difficult to drive.

Secondly, the infrastructure industry. Called on by the policy of "making up for the shortcomings of infrastructure construction," the annual National Development and Reform Commission has approved more than 30 infrastructure projects, with a total investment of more than 850 billion yuan, mostly concentrated in urban tracks, airport expansion, coal mines, and other fields. Demand for building materials is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year under the strong support of the infrastructure industry.

[inventory]

This week in the factory community double growth trend, in which the factory bank after two consecutive weeks of continuous decline, returned to the cumulative state.

Total inventory:

Total thread stocks this week were 8.0752 million tons, up 17.58 tons from last week, or + 2.2 percent from the previous week, and up 152.13 tons from the same period last year, up 23.29 percent from the same period last year.

Social inventory:

This week, the screw thread stock was 5.773 million tons, up 29900 tons from last week, up 0.5 per cent from the previous month, and up 1.1461 million tons from the same period last year, up 24.8 per cent from the same period last year.

In-plant inventory:

Inventories at the plant this week were 2.3023 million tons, up 146000 tons from last week, up 6.8 percent from the previous month, and up 375300 tons from the same period last year, or + 19.5 percent from the same period last year.

[macro and policy aspects]

1. Launch of the second round of the first batch of central eco-environmental protection inspectors

The second round of the first batch of central eco-environmental protection inspectors will be launched in an all-round way in the near future, and eight central eco-environmental protection inspection teams have been set up. Inspectors will be stationed in six provinces (cities), including Shanghai, Fujian, Hainan, Chongqing, Gansu and Qinghai, and two central enterprises in China Minmetals Group Co., Ltd. And China Chemical Group Co., Ltd. It is reported that the current round of inspection teams will be stationed for about one month, a few days ago. The Seventh Ecological Environmental Protection Supervision team of the Central Committee has been stationed in China Minmetals Group Co., Ltd to carry out inspectors.

two。 Commerce Department: economic and Trade teams of China and the United States will resume Economic and Trade consultations

Gao, spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said at a regular news conference on the 11th that the economic and trade teams of China and the United States will resume economic and trade consultations on the basis of equality and mutual respect in accordance with the requirements of the Osaka meeting between the two heads of state. China's core concerns must be properly resolved. It is believed that the two sides can take care of each other's legitimate concerns through equal dialogue and will certainly be able to find a solution to the problem. This is in the interests of the two countries and the two peoples, as well as the interests of the world and the people of the world.

3. Powell's testimony speech announced that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has greatly increased.

Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said recently that the Fed's basic expectation is that US economic growth will remain stable, the labor market will remain strong, and inflation will return to the Fed's 2 per cent target, reaffirming that the Fed will maintain US economic growth "as appropriate". After his testimony was released in advance, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.00% 2.25% in July was 97.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points was 2.8%. By September, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.00%-2.25% is 36.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 61.4%.

4. National Bureau of Statistics: CPI rose 2.7 per cent in June from a year earlier, while PPI was flat from a year earlier

In June 2019, consumer prices rose 2.7 per cent year-on-year. Of this total, both urban and rural areas rose 2.7 per cent; food prices rose 8.3 per cent and non-food prices rose 1.4 per cent; consumer prices rose 3.2 per cent and service prices rose 1.8 per cent. In the first half of the year, consumer prices rose 2.2 percent over the same period last year. In June, consumer prices across the country fell 0.1 percent from a month earlier. Of these, urban prices fell by 0.1%, rural areas by 0.2%, food prices by 0.3%, non-food prices by 0.1%, consumer prices by 0.2%, and service prices by 0.1%. In June 2019, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide were unchanged from a year earlier, down 0.3 percent from the previous month, and the purchase prices of industrial producers fell 0.3 percent from a year earlier and 0.1 percent from the previous month. In the first half of the year, factory prices rose 0.3 percent over the same period last year, and purchase prices rose 0.1 percent.

5. the approval of major projects has exceeded 800 billion, with a steady investment in a hot start to the second half.

According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, the NDRC has approved more than 800 billion yuan of major projects, and the scale of corporate bonds has reached hundreds of billions of yuan. It is worth noting that more attention should be paid to accurate efforts to make up for the shortcomings, as well as to create a better business environment to attract private capital. Data show that since the beginning of this year, Beijing has accelerated the construction of key projects this year, and 58.8 percent of the investment progress has been completed in the first six months, and the number of projects started has reached an all-time high. The industry expects that in the second half of the year, multi-measures to solve the difficulties of funds will become the key to stable investment. With the landing of new rules on special bonds, infrastructure investment will heat up.

[summary of major events]

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, which released the economic operation of the automobile industry in June 2019, judging from the production and marketing situation in the first half of the year, the overall production and marketing of cars is at a low level, which is lower than we expected at the beginning of the year. The momentum of market consumption has not been enhanced by factors such as "price promotion", and the wait-and-see mood of consumers has not improved. With the formal implementation of the new national purchase tax policy on July 1 and the formal switching of the six national standards in some areas, the momentum of consumption may have improved, which will become a positive factor for the improvement of market demand in the second half of the year. The completion of the first half of the year is lower than we expected, and the overall growth rate for the whole year is expected to be negative. We call on the Government to land its consumption promotion policy as soon as possible.

Under the influence of heavy rainfall, super alarm floods occurred in many rivers in China, and the State General headquarters of Flood Control started level IV emergency response at 20:00 on 9 July. It is required that the flood control and drought relief headquarters of Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai provinces and the relevant river basins should start the emergency response at the corresponding level in accordance with the relevant regulations, and earnestly do a good job in flood prevention, flood relief and disaster relief.

Recently, the "Shanxi Province wins the Blue Sky Defense War 2019 Action Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") has been implemented with the consent of the provincial government. It is also required that by the end of July, each city should complete the formulation of the wrong peak production plan, list the wrong peak production enterprises, refine the wrong peak production requirements to the enterprise production line, process and equipment, and clarify the execution content of the wrong peak production to ensure that it can be operated and verifiable. Enterprises that are included in the scope of wrong peak production should adjust their production plans in advance.

4. Wu'an City issued "the implementation Plan of differential Control and Control of Air pollution Prevention and Control in the third quarter of the reverse Industry of Iron and Steel Coking Water in Wu'an City in 2019"

A few days ago, Wu'an City air pollution prevention and control work and my leading group issued "Wu'an 2019 iron and steel coking water reverse industry in the third quarter of air pollution prevention and control implementation plan", "Circular" stipulated in the main urban area of Wenfeng, Wen'an, Mingfang and the recent 4 enterprises to increase the production load by 5% respectively, and clearly defined the local 14 iron and steel, 6 coking and 2 cement enterprises specific production limit measures.

5. Beijing: key projects such as the construction of Jingxiong Expressway will be concentrated in the second half of the year.

The Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission announced on the 9th the progress of the municipal government's key projects from January to June. According to reports, from January to June, the Beijing municipal government realized 48 new projects, an increase of 20 over the same period last year. At the same time, the reporter learned that in the second half of this year, Beijing will also focus on building a number of key projects, such as the Jingxiong Expressway and the Urban Green Heart Theater.

6. Ride Federation: the car market fell 9.3% in the first half of the year, and the vitality of the terminal retail market was not strong in July.

From January to June, the cumulative sales of narrow passenger cars in China was 9954232, down 9.3%, which was based on the substantial increase in sales volume brought about by "Guowu Qing inventory" in May and June. Therefore, in the first half of 2019, the car market in China is still in a difficult situation. On the 9th, when the National Ride Federation released the production and marketing data of the national car market in June, it made a forecast for the car market in the second half of the year. The Federation said that the first half of the year is characterized by "de-inventory", the second half of the "replenishment of inventory" trend will be further apparent. In addition, the Federation believes that a large number of promotions from May to June have disrupted the normal price trend of the automobile market, and that the repair of terminal prices needs to be adapted for a period of time. In addition, the super strong promotion efforts in the second quarter have an overdraft effect on the consumption of car buyers in the second half of the year. The implementation of the new purchase tax policy in July, whether the purchase of a car is preferential or not, consumers have a wait-and-see situation. Overall, the terminal retail market was not dynamic in July.

7. Raising the Mortgage rate of the first and second Suites in many places

In the past half month, the mortgage rates of the first suite and the second apartment in many places have been raised to varying degrees, and some banks have the phenomenon of tight quota and longer lending period. On the one hand, some local regulatory authorities intend to guide interest rates upward, beware of the property market overheating, on the other hand, some banks have also adjusted their own mortgage quota. Industry insiders said that for some time in the future, to prevent residents from buying too fast leverage ratio will still be the main tone of the relevant policies.

Retail sales of broad passenger cars and new energy passenger cars increased in August and June compared with the same period last year.

Ride federation: retail sales of broad passenger cars in china rose 4.9% in June from a year earlier to 1.8 million, the first year-on-year increase in 13 months. At the same time, although the new energy passenger car market entered the subsidy transition period in June, manufacturers wholesale new energy vehicles achieved a good sales level of 134000 units, up 38.7 percent from the previous month and 98.7 percent from the same period last year. It shows that new energy passenger cars are gradually getting rid of their dependence on policy. From January to June this year, the country sold 577000 new energy narrow passenger cars, an increase of 65.9 per cent over the same period last year.

9. The Shanghai work Mobilization meeting of the first Ecological Environmental Protection Supervision Group of the Central Committee was held in Shanghai

On July 11, the Central first Ecological Environment Protection Supervision Group held a mobilization meeting in Shanghai to carry out the work of eco-environmental protection inspectors in Shanghai. The key inspectors, the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee and the government, will implement Xi Jinping's thought of ecological civilization and the decision-making arrangements of the party Central Committee and the State Council for ecological environment protection; and the relevant departments at the municipal level will implement and assume the responsibility for ecological environment protection. The promotion and implementation of the ecological environment protection work of the party committees and governments at the district level. At the same time, in view of the seven iconic battles and other key areas in the battle for pollution prevention and control, and in the light of the specific conditions of Shanghai, a special inspector for eco-environmental protection will be arranged at the same time, in the form of unified implementation of inspectors, unified report feedback, and separate transfer, so as to further strengthen shock and awe, consolidate responsibilities, and promote implementation.

10. Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology announces "opinions on speeding up the Transformation and upgrading of Guangzhou Automobile Industry (draft for soliciting opinions)" will build a world-famous automobile city

On July 10, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Guangzhou Municipal work opinion on speeding up the Transformation and upgrading of the Automobile Industry (draft for soliciting opinions)," which proposed that it would promote the transformation and development of traditional automobile enterprises, accelerate the development of new energy vehicles to high quality, step up the layout of intelligent network automobile application demonstration, speed up the layout of automobile key parts industry chain, and grasp the trend of automobile industry reform in a timely manner. We will build an intelligent network to promote the industrial cluster of new energy vehicles, draw up a roadmap for the development of new energy vehicles, intelligent vehicles, vehicle networking, and key auto parts (2019-2021), and define the direction of medium-and long-term development. It is updated every two years.

11. The US Department of Commerce announces that it will lift the ban on the supply of Huawei

According to several Western media reports, the US Department of Commerce will allow some US companies to continue to do business with Huawei in China and sell products to the company. The news was also confirmed on the official website of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

twelve。 National Ride Federation: combined with the production and marketing data of the car market in June, the vitality of the terminal retail market is expected to be weak in July.

On July 9, 2019, when the National Ride Federation released the production and sales data of the national car market in June, it made a forecast for the car market in the second half of the year. The Federation said that the first half of the year is characterized by "de-inventory", the second half of the "replenishment of inventory" trend will be further apparent. In addition, the Federation believes that a large number of promotions from May to June have disrupted the normal price trend of the automobile market, and that the repair of terminal prices needs to be adapted for a period of time. In addition, the super strong promotion efforts in the second quarter have an overdraft effect on the consumption of car buyers in the second half of the year. The implementation of the new purchase tax policy in July, whether the purchase of a car is preferential or not, consumers have a wait-and-see situation. Overall, the terminal retail market was not dynamic in July.

13. United States Department of Commerce: impose tariffs on prefabricated steel structures exported to the United States

The US Commerce Department said on Monday that it would impose tariffs on Mexican steel products to punish them for supporting domestic manufacturers with unfair subsidies. The investigation concluded that Mexico's exports of structural steel benefited from domestic subsidies and decided to take steps to impose tariffs, the Commerce Department said in a statement. The United States Department of Commerce believes that Canadian subsidies are minimal, so the new tariffs do not affect Canada.

14. Tangshan holds Ecological Environment system Dispatch Conference

On the afternoon of July 7, Tangshan held an eco-environmental system dispatching meeting. The meeting conveyed and studied the spirit of the "Ten key tasks" dispatching meeting of the whole city on 6 July, and informed the city of the recent air quality and water environment quality as well as the outstanding problems existing in the city. arrangements and arrangements were made for the air quality assurance tasks and key work tasks of the on-site meeting on the construction of ecological civilization in the whole province.

15. the feasibility report of 12 expressway projects in Sichuan province was approved with a total investment of 196.3 billion yuan

The recent work promotion meeting of the Sichuan Provincial Comprehensive Traffic Construction and Transport Coordination leading Group revealed that the feasibility reports of 12 expressway projects, including Xichang to Zhaotong and Malkang to Jiuzhi, have been approved, with a total mileage of 1273 km and a total investment of 196.3 billion yuan. During the year, Sichuan Province plans to start a new 1000 km highway project.