Home / Metal News / Steel & Iron Ore / [summary of SMM hot roll cycle] whether the macro uncertainty will play a key role in this week's main concussion next week.
[summary of SMM hot roll cycle] whether the macro uncertainty will play a key role in this week's main concussion next week.
Jul 12,2019 18:06CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

[review and Prospect]

Spot: as of Friday, the national average price of hot roll is 3886 yuan / ton, compared with 3909 yuan / ton-23 yuan / ton last week.

Futures: as of Friday, the national settlement price of hot volume is 3853 yuan / ton, compared with 3877 yuan / ton-24 yuan / ton last week.

This week's review:

This week's hot roll period is now showing a narrow range of concussion trend. Overall, demand weakened slightly in the off-season this week, with supply under pressure as the mainstream market continued to arrive. However, supported by the price of raw iron ore, hot coil spot prices are difficult to have a sharp decline, coupled with Baowu Iron and Steel issued the August price policy, with the intention of raising the ex-factory price of various varieties (each variety to increase 100-150 yuan / ton), to boost market confidence, so this week as a whole showed a narrow concussion trend.

Forecast for next week:

From the late July supply-side may continue to increase and demand-side continued weakness, the fundamental performance is still weak, so later spot prices may continue to continue the weak trend of this week's volatility. However, it is worth noting that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the macro fundamentals, and if there is good news from the resumption of the Sino-US trade talks, or if the macro manufacturing data perform well in June, it will stimulate the rise in spot prices.

 

[fundamentals]

1. Supply side: the hot rolling schedule of steel mills has increased this month, and the supply may continue to be under pressure in late July.

According to the survey data of mainstream sample steel mills, the planned output of hot rolling mills this month is 9.5922 million tons, an increase of + 0.73% compared with the previous month. Mainly due to the continued lack of vibration of the terminal, the production of cold rolling in steel mills is in a state of negative profit, so steel mills have no choice but to reduce production by cold rolling and increase hot rolling, and at a time of weaker demand in July, the total amount of cooling and heat transfer continues to increase, reaching about 450000 tons. Therefore, in the case of hot rolling reduction caused by Tangshan environmental protection and production restriction in the early stage of hedge, the production scheduling increased slightly this month.

In addition, according to the feedback of steel mill research, Wenfeng, Huaxi, Tianzhu and other steel mills, which can resume production from July 15 to July 31, have no significant impact on hot rolling output as a whole because of the small amount of sheet metal limited. in addition, the steel mills rated as Class A in Tangshan are less affected by environmental protection and production restrictions, and are basically in a normal state of production, so on the whole, the steel mills rated as Class A in Tangshan are less affected by environmental protection and production restrictions, and are basically in a normal state of production. Hot rolling supply in late July is likely to continue this week's incremental trend.

However, it is worth mentioning that steel mills said that due to the previous environmental protection production restrictions have not been fully implemented, so August production restrictions may continue to be strict, so hot rolling production in August may be limited concern.

2. Demand side: in the off-season, the trend of weak demand is difficult to change.

At present, judging from the production and sales data of the terminal industry (according to the CAAC, China sold 1.73 million passenger cars in June, year-on-year; China sold 2.06 million vehicles in June, year-on-year-9.6 per cent), the downstream industry is still in the weak season of demand, and it is difficult to boost in the short term, so if there is no good stimulus from news and policy in the near future, it will still maintain the current weak level.

 

[inventory]

This week, both the general treasury and the social database have accumulated for seven consecutive weeks, and this week the cumulative range has increased significantly, and the fundamentals are still weak, and by the sample steel mill research feedback, the late cooling and heat transfer operation still has the potential to continue, so in the case of continued weak demand, it is expected that the late social inventory will continue to accumulate.

On the treasury side: the total inventory of hot rolls in the country this week was 3.3485 million tons, + 3.9% compared with the previous week and + 6.9% over the same period last year.

Steel plant inventory: this week's hot rolling mill warehouse of 965000 tons, month-on-month ratio of + 6.8%, year-on-year-7.7%.

Social inventory: this week hot rolled social warehouse 2.3835 million tons, month-on-month ratio + 2.7%, year-on-year + 14.2%.

 

[macro and policy aspects]

1. Launch of the second round of the first batch of central eco-environmental protection inspectors

The second round of the first batch of central eco-environmental protection inspectors will be launched in an all-round way in the near future, and eight central eco-environmental protection inspection teams have been set up. Inspectors will be stationed in six provinces (cities), including Shanghai, Fujian, Hainan, Chongqing, Gansu and Qinghai, and two central enterprises in China Minmetals Group Co., Ltd. And China Chemical Group Co., Ltd. It is reported that the current round of inspection teams will be stationed for about one month, a few days ago. The Seventh Ecological Environmental Protection Supervision team of the Central Committee has been stationed in China Minmetals Group Co., Ltd to carry out inspectors.

two。 Commerce Department: economic and Trade teams of China and the United States will resume Economic and Trade consultations

Gao, spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said at a regular news conference on the 11th that the economic and trade teams of China and the United States will resume economic and trade consultations on the basis of equality and mutual respect in accordance with the requirements of the Osaka meeting between the two heads of state. China's core concerns must be properly resolved. It is believed that the two sides can take care of each other's legitimate concerns through equal dialogue and will certainly be able to find a solution to the problem. This is in the interests of the two countries and the two peoples, as well as the interests of the world and the people of the world.

3. Powell's speech announced that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has greatly increased.

Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, said recently that the Fed's basic expectation is that US economic growth will remain stable, the labor market will remain strong, and inflation will return to the Fed's 2 per cent target, reaffirming that the Fed will maintain US economic growth "as appropriate". After his testimony was released in advance, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.00% 2.25% in July was 97.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points was 2.8%. By September, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.00%-2.25% is 36.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 61.4%.

4. National Bureau of Statistics: CPI rose 2.7 per cent in June from a year earlier, while PPI was flat from a year earlier

In June 2019, consumer prices rose 2.7 per cent year-on-year. Of this total, both urban and rural areas rose 2.7 per cent; food prices rose 8.3 per cent and non-food prices rose 1.4 per cent; consumer prices rose 3.2 per cent and service prices rose 1.8 per cent. In the first half of the year, consumer prices rose 2.2 percent over the same period last year. In June, consumer prices across the country fell 0.1 percent from a month earlier. Of these, urban prices fell by 0.1%, rural areas by 0.2%, food prices by 0.3%, non-food prices by 0.1%, consumer prices by 0.2%, and service prices by 0.1%. In June 2019, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide were unchanged from a year earlier, down 0.3 percent from the previous month, and the purchase prices of industrial producers fell 0.3 percent from a year earlier and 0.1 percent from the previous month. In the first half of the year, factory prices rose 0.3 percent over the same period last year, and purchase prices rose 0.1 percent.

5. the approval of major projects has exceeded 800 billion, with a steady investment in a hot start to the second half.

According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, the NDRC has approved more than 800 billion yuan of major projects, and the scale of corporate bonds has reached hundreds of billions of yuan. It is worth noting that more attention should be paid to accurate efforts to make up for the shortcomings, as well as to create a better business environment to attract private capital. Data show that since the beginning of this year, Beijing has accelerated the construction of key projects this year, and 58.8 percent of the investment progress has been completed in the first six months, and the number of projects started has reached an all-time high. The industry expects that in the second half of the year, multi-measures to solve the difficulties of funds will become the key to stable investment. With the landing of new rules on special bonds, infrastructure investment will heat up.

 

[summary of major events]

1. CAAC: the completion of the first half of the year is lower than expected, and the overall growth rate for the whole year will be negative.

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, which released the economic operation of the automobile industry in June 2019, judging from the production and marketing situation in the first half of the year, the overall production and marketing of cars is at a low level, which is lower than we expected at the beginning of the year. The momentum of market consumption has not been enhanced by factors such as "price promotion", and the wait-and-see mood of consumers has not improved. With the formal implementation of the new national purchase tax policy on July 1 and the formal switching of the six national standards in some areas, the momentum of consumption may have improved, which will become a positive factor for the improvement of market demand in the second half of the year. The completion of the first half of the year is lower than we expected, and the overall growth rate for the whole year is expected to be negative. We call on the Government to land its consumption promotion policy as soon as possible.

2. The State General Administration of Prevention and Control has launched level IV emergency response, which requires to do a good job in flood prevention, flood prevention and disaster relief.

Under the influence of heavy rainfall, super alarm floods occurred in many rivers in China, and the State General headquarters of Flood Control started level IV emergency response at 20:00 on 9 July. It is required that the flood control and drought relief headquarters of Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai provinces and the relevant river basins should start the emergency response at the corresponding level in accordance with the relevant regulations, and earnestly do a good job in flood prevention, flood relief and disaster relief.

3. Shanxi: the 2019 Action Plan of Shanxi Province to win the Blue Sky Defense War was implemented with the consent of the provincial government.

Recently, the "Shanxi Province wins the Blue Sky Defense War 2019 Action Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") has been implemented with the consent of the provincial government. It is also required that by the end of July, each city should complete the formulation of the wrong peak production plan, list the wrong peak production enterprises, refine the wrong peak production requirements to the enterprise production line, process and equipment, and clarify the execution content of the wrong peak production to ensure that it can be operated and verifiable. Enterprises that are included in the scope of wrong peak production should adjust their production plans in advance.

4. Wu'an City issued "the implementation Plan of differential Control and Control of Air pollution Prevention and Control in the third quarter of the reverse Industry of Iron and Steel Coking Water in Wu'an City in 2019"

A few days ago, Wu'an City air pollution prevention and control work and my leading group issued "Wu'an 2019 iron and steel coking water reverse industry in the third quarter of air pollution prevention and control implementation plan", "Circular" stipulated in the main urban area of Wenfeng, Wen'an, Mingfang and the recent 4 enterprises to increase the production load by 5% respectively, and clearly defined the local 14 iron and steel, 6 coking and 2 cement enterprises specific production limit measures.

5. Beijing: key projects such as the construction of Jingxiong Expressway will be concentrated in the second half of the year.

The Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission announced on the 9th the progress of the municipal government's key projects from January to June. According to reports, from January to June, the Beijing municipal government realized 48 new projects, an increase of 20 over the same period last year. At the same time, the reporter learned that in the second half of this year, Beijing will also focus on building a number of key projects, such as the Jingxiong Expressway and the Urban Green Heart Theater.

6. Ride Federation: the car market fell 9.3% in the first half of the year, and the vitality of the terminal retail market was not strong in July.

From January to June, the cumulative sales of narrow passenger cars in China was 9954232, down 9.3%, which was based on the substantial increase in sales volume brought about by "Guowu Qing inventory" in May and June. Therefore, in the first half of 2019, the car market in China is still in a difficult situation. On the 9th, when the National Ride Federation released the production and marketing data of the national car market in June, it made a forecast for the car market in the second half of the year. The Federation said that the first half of the year is characterized by "de-inventory", the second half of the "replenishment of inventory" trend will be further apparent. In addition, the Federation believes that a large number of promotions from May to June have disrupted the normal price trend of the automobile market, and that the repair of terminal prices needs to be adapted for a period of time. In addition, the super strong promotion efforts in the second quarter have an overdraft effect on the consumption of car buyers in the second half of the year. The implementation of the new purchase tax policy in July, whether the purchase of a car is preferential or not, consumers have a wait-and-see situation. Overall, the terminal retail market was not dynamic in July.

7. Raising the Mortgage rate of the first and second Suites in many places

In the past half month, the mortgage rates of the first suite and the second apartment in many places have been raised to varying degrees, and some banks have the phenomenon of tight quota and longer lending period. On the one hand, some local regulatory authorities intend to guide interest rates upward, beware of the property market overheating, on the other hand, some banks have also adjusted their own mortgage quota. Industry insiders said that for some time in the future, to prevent residents from buying too fast leverage ratio will still be the main tone of the relevant policies.

Retail sales of broad passenger cars and new energy passenger cars increased in August and June compared with the same period last year.

Ride federation: retail sales of broad passenger cars in china rose 4.9% in June from a year earlier to 1.8 million, the first year-on-year increase in 13 months. At the same time, although the new energy passenger car market entered the subsidy transition period in June, manufacturers wholesale new energy vehicles achieved a good sales level of 134000 units, up 38.7 percent from the previous month and 98.7 percent from the same period last year. It shows that new energy passenger cars are gradually getting rid of their dependence on policy. From January to June this year, the country sold 577000 new energy narrow passenger cars, an increase of 65.9 per cent over the same period last year.

9. The Shanghai work Mobilization meeting of the first Ecological Environmental Protection Supervision Group of the Central Committee was held in Shanghai

On July 11, the Central first Ecological Environment Protection Supervision Group held a mobilization meeting in Shanghai to carry out the work of eco-environmental protection inspectors in Shanghai. The key inspectors, the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee and the government, will implement Xi Jinping's thought of ecological civilization and the decision-making arrangements of the party Central Committee and the State Council for ecological environment protection; and the relevant departments at the municipal level will implement and assume the responsibility for ecological environment protection. The promotion and implementation of the ecological environment protection work of the party committees and governments at the district level. At the same time, in view of the seven iconic battles and other key areas in the battle for pollution prevention and control, and in the light of the specific conditions of Shanghai, a special inspector for eco-environmental protection will be arranged at the same time, in the form of unified implementation of inspectors, unified report feedback, and separate transfer, so as to further strengthen shock and awe, consolidate responsibilities, and promote implementation.

10. Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology announces "opinions on speeding up the Transformation and upgrading of Guangzhou Automobile Industry (draft for soliciting opinions)" will build a world-famous automobile city

On July 10, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Guangzhou Municipal work opinion on speeding up the Transformation and upgrading of the Automobile Industry (draft for soliciting opinions)," which proposed that it would promote the transformation and development of traditional automobile enterprises, accelerate the development of new energy vehicles to high quality, step up the layout of intelligent network automobile application demonstration, speed up the layout of automobile key parts industry chain, and grasp the trend of automobile industry reform in a timely manner. We will build an intelligent network to promote the industrial cluster of new energy vehicles, draw up a roadmap for the development of new energy vehicles, intelligent vehicles, vehicle networking, and key auto parts (2019-2021), and define the direction of medium-and long-term development. It is updated every two years.

11. The US Department of Commerce announces that it will lift the ban on the supply of Huawei

According to several Western media reports, the US Department of Commerce will allow some US companies to continue to do business with Huawei in China and sell products to the company. The news was also confirmed on the official website of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

12. National Ride Federation: combined with the production and marketing data of the car market in June, the vitality of the terminal retail market is expected to be weak in July.

On July 9, 2019, when the National Ride Federation released the production and sales data of the national car market in June, it made a forecast for the car market in the second half of the year. The Federation said that the first half of the year is characterized by "de-inventory", the second half of the "replenishment of inventory" trend will be further apparent. In addition, the Federation believes that a large number of promotions from May to June have disrupted the normal price trend of the automobile market, and that the repair of terminal prices needs to be adapted for a period of time. In addition, the super strong promotion efforts in the second quarter have an overdraft effect on the consumption of car buyers in the second half of the year. The implementation of the new purchase tax policy in July, whether the purchase of a car is preferential or not, consumers have a wait-and-see situation. Overall, the terminal retail market was not dynamic in July.

13. United States Department of Commerce: imposing tariffs on prefabricated steel structures imported from Mexico

The US Commerce Department said on Monday that it would impose tariffs on Mexican steel products to punish them for supporting domestic manufacturers with unfair subsidies. The investigation concluded that Mexico's exports of structural steel benefited from domestic subsidies and decided to take steps to impose tariffs, the Commerce Department said in a statement. The United States Department of Commerce believes that Canadian subsidies are minimal, so the new tariffs do not affect Canada.

14. Tangshan holds Ecological Environment system Dispatch Conference

On the afternoon of July 7, Tangshan held an eco-environmental system dispatching meeting. The meeting conveyed and studied the spirit of the "Ten key tasks" dispatching meeting of the whole city on 6 July, and informed the city of the recent air quality and water environment quality as well as the outstanding problems existing in the city. arrangements and arrangements were made for the air quality assurance tasks and key work tasks of the on-site meeting on the construction of ecological civilization in the whole province.

15. the feasibility report of 12 expressway projects in Sichuan province was approved with a total investment of 196.3 billion yuan

The recent work promotion meeting of the Sichuan Provincial leading Group for Comprehensive Traffic Construction and Transport Coordination revealed that the feasibility reports of 12 expressway projects, including Xichang to Zhaotong and Malkang to Jiuzhi, have been approved, with a total mileage of 1273 km and a total investment of 196.3 billion. [SMM Steel]

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