Minutes of SMM Bronze Morning meeting on July 12
[7.12 SMM minutes] Macro: 1) Fed Chairman Powell: monetary policy is not as loose as the Fed thinks, and wants to use tools to keep the economy good. News of the Fed's renewed easing expectations continues to ferment. 2) China's Ministry of Commerce: the Sino-US consultation team has maintained communication, and the next round of consultation arrangements have not been disclosed yet, and no new information on the purchase of US agricultural products has been released; the unreliable entity list system will be released in the near future. 3) the US government: the storm reduced US Gulf of Mexico crude oil production by 53%, equivalent to 1.000912 million barrels per day, and crude oil rushed higher in the morning. Fundamentals: 1) scrap copper: yesterday refined scrap price difference of 1654 yuan / ton. The small increase in the price difference between fine and waste is not obvious to the market. According to the existing approval, it is expected that the gap in the amount of copper scrap metal imported in the third quarter is not large, but now the market consumption is weak, the purchasing enthusiasm of waste enterprises is weak, and the copper scrap market is still weak. The market is now focused on the progress of restricted import scrap copper approvals in other regions. 2) imported copper: yesterday's import loss of about 100 yuan / ton. Yesterday, the market price was somewhat weak, the demand of the foreign trade market continued to be light, the search for goods was very few, and suppressed the market quotation. High quotations are difficult to close, traders do not have enough confidence in the price, the final transaction price maintained at the previous level, did not rise, and even individual low prices. Demand for warehouse receipts still outperformed bills of lading. 3) stocks: LME copper stocks decreased by 3525 tons to 290000 tons on 11 July, while copper warehouse receipts increased by 4212 tons to 67017 tons in the previous period. 4) spot: spot due to the high and narrow range of market prices, market transactions are suppressed by high prices, and close to delivery, the overall trading environment stalemate, holders are expected to remain firm quotation. It is expected that the spot water will rise by 60 yuan to 120 yuan per ton today. Copper prices and forecasts: last night, both inside and outside the high volatility, the center of gravity of 5940 U.S. dollars / ton outside, the center of gravity of 46600 yuan / ton inside, mainly due to the market continues to be influenced by the Fed doves, the dollar hovered at 97, good copper prices. At present, the Fed interest rate cut continues to ferment, the U. S. interest rate cut expectations of increased uncertainty, the market is waiting for the Fed's guidance. In addition, today focuses on the release of domestic social and financial data, copper prices are more likely to hit the short term. At present, Shanghai copper negative cross star, the bottom jump gap is large, a short time is difficult to complete. It is expected to be 5930 to 5970 US dollars per ton for London copper and 46400 to 46800 yuan per ton for Shanghai copper today.
(SMM Kwong Tze-si)