[minutes of morning meeting of SMM aluminum] the range of electrolytic aluminum storage is obviously narrowed, how to deduce the price of aluminum in the later stage?

7.9 minutes of SMM internal aluminum morning meeting

Market surface: the US index rose slightly yesterday to close at 97.374, up 0.129 points from the previous day. Lun Aluminum closed at a small shade line near the cross, slightly down $0.50 / ton to close at $1804.5 / ton. Shanghai Aluminum main 1908 contract concussion consolidation, closed at 13785 yuan / ton.

Macro: (1) the eurozone July Sentix investor confidence index is-5.8, the previous value is-3.3, and the expected value is 0.1, the lowest level since November 2014, mainly due to market investors' concerns about trade frictions between the European Union and the United States; (2) China's foreign exchange reserves in June 3.11923 trillion, up 0.6% from the previous month; and (3) the scale of China's social finance for June will be announced today.

Fundamentals: cost side, SMM Australian alumina FOB price continued to drop 1 US dollars / ton, the domestic quotation is stable than last Friday, but the actual transaction in the north has been in 2600 to 2650 yuan / ton; Inventory, Monday SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 1.022 million tons, down 6000 tons from last Thursday, the decline is significantly narrowed, mainly reflected in Shanghai, Wuxi, Gongyi region, Tianjin, Chongqing, Linyi inventory increased compared with last Thursday, do not rule out the possibility of July-August phased accumulation.

Spot: on Monday, the spot price in Shanghai was between 13740 and 13760 yuan / ton, and the rising water on the plate was between 10 and 20 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton from Friday. Wuxi spot price was between 13740 and 13760 yuan / ton, the average price was slightly higher than that in Shanghai, and the transaction price in Hangzhou was between 1378 and 13800 yuan / ton. Yesterday, there was an adequate supply of goods in the market, and the holders actively shipped the goods, but the market prices fell sharply in the morning, showing slightly higher prices, and the trading between middlemen and traders was still active. There is no obvious willingness to purchase downstream, and the receipt of goods is flat. The overall deal in East China on Monday was average.

Summary: the range of domestic electrolytic aluminum storage has narrowed, the consumption off-season has arrived, July-August may be phased accumulation, we maintain the previous point of view, the previous aluminum prices unilateral weakness, but extrapolated to the September consumption season brought about by the accelerated storage market, you can try in 13500 to 13800 yuan / ton waiting for a single layout.

(SMM Li Hao 021 5166 6863)