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[daily Review of SMM Black Futures] 20190702: relaxation of production restriction and reappearance of strong pattern of Steel weak Mineral Resources
Jul 2,2019 17:23CST
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Source:SMM
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In terms of volume and price: RB1910 closed down 54 yuan / ton to close at 4053 yuan / ton; HC1910 closed down 65 yuan / ton to 3918 yuan / ton; I1909 rose 27 yuan / ton to close at 900 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day; J1909 closed down 20 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day to close at 2110.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 sold 3.58 million transactions, down 71800 to 2.46 million; I1909, 2.77 million, down 59000 to 1.78 million; in terms of capital flows, RB1910 had a net outflow of 342 million yuan today; and I1909 recorded a net outflow of 40.66 million yuan. Viewpoint: differentiation and operation. Today, the Tangshan municipal government issued a "Tangshan air pollution prevention and control plan for July", reducing production restrictions from 50 per cent to 20 per cent, sparking concerns that production restrictions did not meet expectations and a high pullback of spiral rolls. At this stage, the environmental protection benefit falls to the ground, the current price is close to the flat water, the short-term upward driving force is insufficient, the market has the need to build a rising relay platform, and the probability of short-term shock operation is expected to be large. At the same time, due to production restrictions less than expected Lido ore, iron ore rose sharply again today, breaking through the 900 yuan / ton mark, refreshing a five-and-a-half-year high. At present, iron ore fundamentals are still strong, even after a sharp rally, there is still a large discount, there is still no sign of a turn in the short term, or will still maintain a high level of operation. Coke, Tangshan, Handan and other steel mills put forward the third round of 100 yuan / ton, but Shanxi Jinzhong, Changzhi and other coking plants made it clear that after two rounds of reduction, coke enterprises have been on the edge of profit and loss, and steel mill profits have greatly increased, so for the third round of price increases and falls do not accept and suspend supply, it is expected that the short-term coke price downward space is limited, the probability will rise at the bottom. Strategy: RB1910 contract to see the interval (3950, 4200); I1909 contract to look at the interval (800950), the middle line multiple single holding, short-term can be reduced on the high, after falling back, rolling operation. Arbitrage aspect, can intervene again to do short steel plant profit operation. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.

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