[SMM Black Review] although the rebound is on the road, but the high intensity is difficult to continue!

Current Review (1 July)

< 1 > spot aspect.

Boosted by the so-called easing of trade frictions between China and the United States and the surge in steel billets in Tangshan, steel market prices have rebounded sharply so far over the weekend, ranging from 40 to 270, with an average cumulative increase of about 300 + 50 since low prices. Today's trading volume: strong in the morning and weak in the afternoon, as a whole. The billet price in Tangshan area has risen by 80 to 3700 yuan / ton over the weekend (the lowest increase of 3410 yuan / ton so far).

Market mentality: high cautious, speculative demand disturbance increased.

Phase II steel.

The stock market and commodities are very popular. The black system is generally strong, iron ore continues to soar, hitting a new high of 874.5.

RB1910 main contract:

During the day, there was a substantial increase and decrease in positions and tail positions to 35526, with a wide range of strong fluctuations between 4148 and 4061 during the day, and a final closing of 4107. The main organization has a net increase of 8514 hands per day.

HC1910 main contract:

During the day, there was a substantial increase and decrease in positions and tail positions to 20480 hands, with a wide range of strong fluctuations between 4049 and 3947 during the day and a close of 3983. The main organization within the day clearance single 2341 hands.

Iron ore l1909 main contract:

During the day, a huge increase in positions, tail positions to 105214 hands, in the day between 806 and 838.5 strong rebound, closing 821.5. The main organization has a net increase of 7553 hands per day.

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:

During the day, there was a sharp decrease in positions and an increase in positions to 40702 hands, with a strong rebound between 2062.5 and 2140 during the day, with a close of 2130.5 at the end of the day. The main organization within the day clearance single 1776 hands.

Coking coal JM1909 main contract:

During the day, there was a small increase in positions and tail positions to 6800 hands, with a narrow range of weak oscillations between 1376 and 1 during the day, with a final closing of 1375. The main organization within the day clearance single 3375 hands.

Forecast for tomorrow.

1. On the spot side. There is a high probability of rut back.

two。 Futures:

RB1910 main contract: between 3960 and 4150 concussion.

HC1910 main contract: between 3850 and 4050 concussion.

Iron ore l1909 main contract: between 830 and 880 concussion.

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2080 and 2150 concussion.

Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1360 and 1430 concussion.

< 4 > suggestions for current operation:.

1. On the spot side:

In practice, the author recommends that those who have completed the replenishment of inventory at a low price:

Every high appropriate amount of inventory reduction, large reversal (100 yuan / ton) appropriate amount of replenishment inventory.

Non-implementation of the author's advice: smooth operation is appropriate, waiting for a big return dare to replenish inventory.

two。 Futures.

In terms of the end of the finished product:

Short rhythm: practice the author's suggestion: high short order position to fall (RB1910 contract review target position: 3830 to 3900).

Single trend: wait for the target position to intervene. Don't dance with the hindsight.

Trend strategy: according to the corresponding period steel position of 50% of the total inventory, gradually short the RB2001 contract or RB1910 contract (the author tends to be far away).

On the raw material side.

Iron ore L1909 contract: within the range, every along the value near the empty, the lower value near the cloth more. Fast in and out.

Demon Jiao J1909 contract:

It is appropriate to throw high and low absorption in the range of 2080 to 2160.

Coking coal JM1909 contract: maintain the same.

It is appropriate to wait and see or intervene in the vicinity of the value (although the author says that it is still tasteless to eat in the vicinity of the value).

< 5 > Heart language and information.

1. As the world focused on the G20 summit, the dust settled between the two heads of state on the trade friction between China and the United States, and the result was that the handshake was not reconciled, which was in line with the author's expectations.

Market interpretation is divided: everyone interprets the good.

The author bluntly interprets: only from the Sino-US trade friction stagnant at the origin, neutral; but the steel price fully reflects the optimistic expectations of the negotiations, only from this point of view is less than expected, is neutral and empty.

two。 Verification of the proposition of environmental protection and limited production in Jiangsu province, a big province of thread production.

The author has a dull understanding that the counterparts of environmental protection and thunderstorm in Tangshan are not only beautiful and moving excuses for air pollution, but also the main cause of supply-side reform results and policy combination. Similarly, based on the overall macroeconomic considerations, policy does not tolerate steel price sub-bomb flying is a high probability event. Therefore, Jiangsu Province's large-scale environmental protection and production restrictions are bound to be a high probability event, and the market copying is more likely to be a lot of silver. In short, the benevolent see benevolence, the wise see wisdom.

3. There is a good chance of returning to the fundamentals of the game in the second half of the week.

4. China's manufacturing PMl49.4%, was flat in June compared with the previous month.

5. Raw material end.

Iron ore:

Spot prices rose 15 to 25 yuan / ton, 62% PBpowder 870 yuan / ton, mine discount 73 yuan / ton.

Late interpretation of iron ore:

5.1. The actual environmental protection production limit area Tangshan area affects the production capacity of 5 million tons / month, even if the environmental protection production limit is closed in August, the blast furnace production cycle is calculated according to 25 days. That is, demand was reduced by about 15 million tons in July and August.

5.2. Australian guar early 85 US dollars / ton, shipment reduction is suspected of commercial operation; 120 yuan / ton above the probability of additional issuance is on the way; Brazil Vale recovery increment is also on the way.

5.3. The price of iron ore and diamonds is on the way.

In a word, at present, the failure of high demand and high discount is obvious, and the probability of shipment increases in the later period. Although the current market is one-sided, but the author tends to high-altitude strategy, control the position can be.

Coke:

Although the spot price is stable and weak, but Shanxi environmental protection to limit production probability is on the way. The author once said that the single strategy will remain the same, do not dance with the hindsight of riding the wall.

6. Steel RB1910 contract, if refused to reverse, the uplink space is very limited (4200 to 4250); if the normal reversal, the later can be expected.

The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. See the weekly reviews on June 1 and June 28 for details.

Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781

(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)