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[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 20190701:G20 beat expectations, iron ore contracts rose by the limit.
Jul 1,2019 17:39CST
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Source:SMM
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In terms of volume and price, RB1910 rose 42 yuan / ton to close at 4107 yuan / ton; HC1910 rose 30 yuan / ton to close at 3983 yuan / ton; I1909 rose 34.50 yuan / ton to close at 873 yuan / ton; J1909 rose 59.5 yuan / ton to close at 2130.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 sold 4.06 million transactions, with positions reduced by 35500 to 2.53 million; I1909, 2.14 million, with positions increased by 4846 to 1.78 million; in terms of capital flows, RB1910 recorded a net outflow of 30.62 million yuan today; and I1909 recorded a net inflow of 524 million yuan. Viewpoint: the concussion is strong. At the weekend, the boots of the G20 summit fell to the ground, and the meeting of Chinese and US heads of state decided to resume economic and trade negotiations, which exceeded market expectations. Boosted by this, the stock market and futures market both opened high today, and the market welcomed another bullish feast. Iron ore several contracts rose by the limit, I1909 again refresh the high in recent years, as high as 873 yuan / ton. At present, the pattern of iron ore fundamentals has not changed significantly, the expected realization of supply contraction and the continuous decline of inventory confirm the strength of its fundamentals, while the disk is still in a high discount state, forming a strong support to the price. Good fundamentals superimposed macro benefits, resulting in prices repeatedly hit new highs. For mature wood, the accumulation rate of inventory is lower than expected, at the same time, the environmental protection and production restriction is stronger than in the past, and the supply can shrink. Last week, the spot rose less than expected, resulting in a sharp narrowing of the base difference and a rise in the hot roll, which restricted the increase of the disk surface. However, this situation has been significantly improved. Today, the spot increase of the screw coil has greatly exceeded the increase of the disk surface, and the thread base difference has expanded to 89 yuan / ton. Hot coil base difference has also returned to the discount state, under the current resonance, the price shock upward trend remains unchanged. Bifocal aspect, yesterday, Wu'an City air pollution prevention and control work leading group issued "on iron and steel, coking, cement industry in July 2019 differential control interim notice." It is mentioned that the coking enterprises located in the city ambient air quality demonstration area and the coking enterprises with coke oven of 5.5 m or above have prolonged the coking time to 36 hours; other coking enterprises have extended the coking time to 28 hours; recently, the coke enterprises have the second round of raising and lowering interest rate and empty cash, the superposition of environmental protection has become stricter, the supply has contraction expectations, and the shock is expected to run on the strong side, and the coke enterprises have extended the coking time to 36 hours and other coking enterprises have extended the coking time to 28 hours. Strategy: RB1910 contract to see the interval (3950, 4200); I1909 contract to look at the interval (800900), the middle line multiple single holding, short-term can be reduced on the high, after falling back, rolling operation. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.

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