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[SMM hot roll delivery feedback] Resource arrival is under too much pressure, want to fly? I think it's hard.
Jun 26,2019 17:31CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Feedback on arrival this week:

The overall resource arrival of hot rolled mainstream steel mills this week totaled 198000 tons, compared with 196000 tons + 2000 tons last week. The overall resource arrival continued to increase, but the growth rate slowed (last week + 19000 tons). And the trend of shipment in the three mainstream markets continues to be divided. Mainly due to, after the end of May spot prices continued to fall, coupled with the entry of June terminal demand gradually from the peak season to the off-season, resulting in a decline in the ordering sentiment of traders, the overall is still dominated by the long-term Association. Therefore, under the influence of the arrival cycle, the arrival of goods this week continued to increase last week, but the growth rate has slowed down. In addition, due to the influence of different degrees of pre-price difference and inventory accumulation in the mainstream market, there are differences between steel mills' willingness to put in and traders' mood to take goods, so the arrival of resources in each market is differentiated. Among them,

 

[Shanghai Market] Resources arrived at 76000 tons this week, compared with 79000 tons to 3000 tons last week. Due to the recent speculative demand in the market is OK, coupled with the continuous reduction in the arrival of goods, so the market pressure has been slightly alleviated.

Among them, the main resources are Yanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Benxi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., WISCO and Angang.

 

[happy from the market] Resources arrived at 108000 tons this week, compared with 101000 tons + 7000 tons last week. The growth rate slowed from last week, because the current terminal demand is still in a weak period, coupled with the recent Rain Water weather continues to affect terminal procurement, so the market resources are difficult to digest. In this case, if the late arrival continues to increase, it will cause market pressure. Among them, the arrival of resources is mainly Yangang, Jianlong.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

[Tianjin Market] Resources arrived at 14000 tons this week, compared with 16000 tons to 2000 tons last week. As the arrival of resources continues to be less, there is no pressure on the market. Among them, the main resources are China Railway and Tangshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.

Late arrival forecast:

Due to the impact of environmental protection and production restrictions in Tangshan and other areas, the output of hot rolling in the later stage of some steel mills may be reduced. And according to SMM research feedback, some steel mills have said that there is a discount on the amount agreed in July, in which the mainstream market, Yangang 30% discount; Benxi Iron and Steel plate thin specification ratio > 40% discount, ordinary plate thin specification ratio < 40% discount; vertical and horizontal 40% discount; Anfeng 30% discount, so the subsequent overall market supply will be reduced. Among them,

 

[Shanghai Market] at present, most steel mill orders are in an inverted state (Yangang resource to the stock price is 3930 yuan / ton, upside down 40 to 50 yuan / ton; Bengang to the warehouse about 4200 yuan / ton, upside down 200 to 300 yuan / ton; Shagang to the warehouse about 4100 yuan / ton, upside down 100 to 200 yuan / ton. ), coupled with the fact that the current actual demand for terminals is still weak, so traders are in a low mood to place orders. Therefore, on the whole, it is expected that the arrival of resources may continue to decrease at a later stage.

 

[happy from the market] although the current basically out of the inverted state (vertical and horizontal yesterday's settlement price of 3890 yuan / ton, profit of 100 to 120 yuan / ton; Yangang to the stock price of 3990 to 4000 yuan / ton, a small profit. However, due to the lack of terminal demand, the arrival of resources is difficult to digest, so the ordering sentiment of traders has also dropped. Therefore, on the whole, it is expected that the arrival of resources will be reduced at a later stage.

 

[Tianjin Market] at present, traders generally feedback that it is difficult to place orders and there are few resources. In addition to the overall impact of the current environmental protection and production restrictions, it is expected that the arrival of resources in the later period will continue to remain in a small state. [SMM Steel]

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