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[SMM Black current Review] ask supply and demand, who is in charge of ups and downs?
Jun 24,2019 18:12CST
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Ask supply and demand, who is in charge of ups and downs?

            

Current Review (24 June)

            

 

< 1 > spot aspect.

 

Weekend so far the overall steel market price retaliatory rebound: an increase of about 100. Trading volume: strong return period. The price of steel billet in Tangshan area has rebounded from 120 yuan / ton to 3580 yuan / ton (3410 minimum up to 170 yuan / ton so far).

 

Market mentality: the vast majority of late wailing, a very small number of wise people open their faces.

    

 

Phase II steel.

     

The stock market, the commodity floats red; the black system: becomes the material end carnival; the raw material end overall is weak, the iron ore arrogance is no longer!

     

    

RB1910 main contract:

 

During the day, there was a huge reduction in positions and tail positions to 160000 hands, with a strong rebound between 3835 and 3966 during the day and a close of 3904. The main organization within the day clearance single 23879 hands.

 

HC1910 main contract:

 

During the day, there was a huge increase in positions and tail positions to 92980 hands, with a strong rebound between 3740 and 3928 during the day and a close of 3846. The main organization within the day clearance single 5941 hands.

 

Iron ore l1909 main contract:

 

During the day, there was a significant reduction in positions and tail positions to 130000 hands, with a downward fluctuation between 821 and 793.5 during the day, with a final closing of 813.5. The main organization within the day clearance single 11517 hands.

 

 

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:

 

During the day, a small reduction in positions, tail reduction to 15014 hands, in the day between 2057 and 2121 strong shock, closing 2081.5. The main organization has a net increase of 1573 hands per day.

 

Coking coal JM1909 main contract:

 

During the day, there was a small increase in positions and tail positions to 18102 hands, with a narrow range of weak shocks between 1393.5 and 1366.5 during the day, with a final closing of 1376. The main organization within the day clearance single 662 hands.

 

Forecast for tomorrow.

 

1. Spot: short rhythm pull up too fast, save the probability of looking back.

 

two。 Futures:

 

RB1910 main contract: between 3850 and 3980 concussion.

 

HC1910 main contract: between 3800 and 3930 concussion.

 

Iron ore l1909 main contract: 760 to 820 between shock.

 

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2050 and 2130 concussion.

 

Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1360 and 1410 concussion.

 

< 4 > suggestions for current operation:

 

1. On the spot side:

In practice, the author recommends that those who have completed the replenishment of inventory at a low price:

It is appropriate for smooth rolling operation that the appropriate amount of output is greater than the input, and the right amount of the low is greater than the output of the smooth rolling operation.

Those who are slow to understand: looking back can be appropriate to replenish inventory, do not overcatch up for the appropriate.

 

two。 Futures.

 

In terms of the end of the finished product:

Short rhythm: every high stop to leave the field, the upper edge of the value near the empty single appropriate amount of intervention; the lower edge of the trend near the single and then gradually involved. Do not dance with the hindsight of riding a wall, it is not advisable to chase up and down.

 

The author's forward-looking forecast: empty RB1910 multi-HC1910 (throwing the point of view when the base difference is about 190), today the minimum convergence to 20 yuan, basically landed.

Suggestion: it is appropriate to leave the field for a while.

 

On the raw material side.

 

Iron ore l1909 contract:

Practice the author's suggestion: the holding of high empty orders is waiting to fall.

Chi Wu did not practice the author's suggestion: it is appropriate to intervene in the vicinity of the value. Bodo is not recommended.

 

Demon Jiao J1909 contract:

The author forecasts that the fourth round of price increase will fall to the ground in July and August.

It is appropriate to intervene gradually when the order is low, and the position is waiting to rise.

Those with trading ability: sell high and absorb low in the range of 2050 to 2130.

 

Coking coal JM1909 contract: maintain the same.

It is appropriate to wait and see or intervene in the vicinity of the value (although the author says that it is still tasteless to eat in the vicinity of the value).

 

< 5 > Heart language and information.

1. The author's forward-looking forecast:

Downward trend: the resistance fell in May, and it was smoother in the first and middle of June; time and space dimension: 300 + 30, 45 days. Landed on schedule.

Rebound trend: there is a good chance of starting a rebound from the end of June to the first ten days of July. Expectations are on the way, wait and see!

As for the forward-looking forecast of environmental protection and production restriction: the next "moderate rain" falls to the ground. It's an accident, it's inevitable! I don't know!

 

two。 The production and iron ore demand reduction affected by environmental protection and production restrictions can be found in the SMM Nonferrous Network report.

The limited production (by landing) in Tangshan alone affects the rough estimated output of about 4.08 million tons per month, and the demand for iron ore is reduced by about 7 million tons per month. As for the other regions, the probability of falling to the ground gradually. Diamond price is easy, Yongan seat is far away and close, what does it mean?! Don't be trapped.

 

The 3.G20 summit will be held in Osaka, Japan, on June 28 and 29. Pay attention to the handshake between the heads of state of China and the United States!

 

4. The scale of local bond issuance has further accelerated, with a high probability of 900 billion yuan on its back in June.

 

5. The rebound is on the way and will not collapse, but the trend is difficult to reverse. It is particularly important to grasp the rhythm.

 

 

The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. For details, see the outlook for the steel market in June and the weekly review on June 14 and 21.

 

Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781

 

(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)

 

 

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