[SMM Black current Weekly Review] only feel that the sky collapsed, to save Yuan with empty hands!

Current weekly review (evening of 21 June)

Play back the current market this week.

1. The main logic of the multi-empty game this week includes, but is not limited to.

(1) the trade war between China and the United States has been alleviated for the time being.

(2) the Federal Reserve is on the cusp of redeeming monetary easing.

(3) the regulation of counter-periodic factors continues to accelerate.

(4) the domestic stock market bottomed out and rebounded.

(5) seasonal demand converges, but it is not sad.

(6) the inflection point of inventory continues to be rammed.

(7) the high yield of RB was reviewed.

(8) High demand for iron ore, high discount and substantial convergence on the supply side.

(9) Coke rose in the fourth round and fell to the ground in the first round of high-intensity game. no, no.

(10) the price of iron ore has been drilled, and the product cost support with and only long process is further strengthened.

(11) including the long process steel enterprise profit further convergence, overhaul, stop production is on the way.

two。 Spot: the overall price of the steel market this week is low and then high. East China region Shanghai three brands the lowest point of 3680 yuan / ton, Friday closed at 3730 yuan / ton (now affected by the ten-day price of Shagang, the price has not risen smoothly). The price of steel billet in Tangshan fell 40 yuan / ton, the lowest point was 3410 yuan / ton, and the weekly income was 3460 yuan / ton (3510 yuan / ton last week).

In a word, the author predicted the landing with a short rhythm: the front low and the back high were verified.

Market mentality: follow the trend.

3. Futures: overall concussion upward.

RB1910 contract:

During the week, it fluctuated upward between 3683 and 3860, closing 3859 per week (3755 last week).

HC1910 contract:

During the week, it fluctuated upward between 3558 and 3762, closing 3760 per week (3628 last week).

Iron ore l1909 contract:

During the week, he continued to get angry between 755.5 and 837, closing 820 per week (783.5 last week).

Demon Jiao J1909 contract:

It fluctuated weakly between 2033 and 2101 during the week, closing 2089.5 per week (2108.5 last week).

Coking coal JM1909 contract:

Within the week, it fluctuated in a narrow range from 1376 to 1407, closing at 1393.5 per week (1386 last week).

Next week's current forecast.

1. Spot: concussion forward!

two。 Futures:

RB1910 contract: between 3750 and 3950.

HC1910 contract: between 3680 and 3850.

Iron ore contract l1909: between 750 and 830.

Demon Jiao J1909 contract: between 2070 and 2200 concussion.

Coking coal JM1909 contract: between 1350 and 1430.

< 3 > suggestions for current operation.

1. On the spot side:

Has completed the replenishment of inventory: every high slightly greater than in, every low in slightly greater than out of the smooth rolling operation is appropriate.

two。 Futures:

End of finished material:

Practice the author's suggestion: low multi-single holding to rise, there are sub-low multi-single high throwing low suction rolling operation is appropriate.

The short RB1910 contract multi-HC1910 arbitrage warehouse receipt continues to be held, and the base difference of the target contract returns to zero.

Iron ore i1909 contract:

Practice the author's suggestion: 695 near a single intervention, stop profit has made a lot of money, falling bag is the right way; born in distress, die in peace; ore is not a diamond, how can longevity test. General principle, rest! For those who have the ability to operate, it is appropriate for a small amount of empty orders to intervene gradually every high (effective breakthrough 850 stop loss); short rhythm look back position 750 left.

Coke J1909 contract:

The author said: the fourth round of price increases are likely to land at the end of June and July.

Every time along the value near the multiple intervention and at that time (effective fall below 2000 stop loss).

Coking coal: wait-and-see or near the value of light warehouse empty operation is appropriate (low capital efficiency).

< 4 > Information and heart language.

1. Steel mills used to drink Maotai as a mineral spring can only be a memory collection, re-explore the way to reduce costs has become the current option; the theory of "tragedy of the Commons" is likely to be put into practice in the fourth quarter.

two。 Re-analysis of environmental protection and production restriction.

Considering the current situation of industry fundamentals, macro-economy, 70th anniversary of National Day, diamond price of iron ore, the author tends to environmental protection and production restrictions in July as a whole, "moderate rain" is a high probability event. I don't know.

3. This cycle is strong and weak, not only in the telephone market between Chinese and US heads of state, but also in the revision of expectations.

4. Re-verification of the relationship between supply and demand

Demand side:

Macroeconomic downward pressure warning has not been removed, the acceleration of counter-cyclical factor adjustment is inevitable, and there is no doubt that infrastructure construction is running on the road; although the growth rate of newly started real estate area has dropped, there is no Qiang on the whole.

At least in a short period, I have said that demand convergence is inevitable, do not use chicken feathers as a sharp arrow. The return of retaliatory demand after the rain is also inevitable, of course, regional differences, decided to return first and later.

In a word, the author still maintains: the judgment of demand entanglement. There is no worry for the "ancients".

Supply side:

At present, there is not much difference between the static long process gross profit and the short process electric arc furnace. Next, overhaul, stop production superimposed environmental protection and limited production rain, supply-side marginal contraction probability is already on the way.

5. The mutual infection between the material end and the raw material end of the futures disk is mainly emotional catharsis disturbance, and finally return to the essence. Staying steady is the right way.

6. Analysis of iron ore.

6.1. The decline in port inventories has converged sharply this week, with a clear signal that the short pace is peaking.

6.2. North Korean iron ore imports are full of information today, regardless of the results, at least indicating that the current diamond prices have alarmed the highest levels. From the point of view of the will of the country, the probability of beating the diamond price combination is on the way.

In short, the author suggests: the principle of more than profit rest is the king! Practice the author's advice, sugar cane the sweetest section to eat enough, do not ride the wall pie to coax!

7. Inventory inflection points are not the only footnotes to falling prices.

At present, the social database is about 5.6 million tons, the market so-called late bearish language inventory pressure, just whistling in the dark. Not to mention the persistence of doubt, the author tends to think that the next week or two to look back is a high probability event.

< 5 > trend analysis and views remain unchanged.

Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781

(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)