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[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 20190 621: production is slightly loosened and thread increases position upward
Jun 21,2019 18:17CST
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In terms of volume and price: RB1910 closed 34 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 3859 yuan / ton; HC1910 closed 49 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 3760 yuan / ton; I1909 closed 11 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day, closing at 820 yuan / ton; J1909 closed 13 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 2076.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 handled 3.58 million transactions, an increase of 37900 to 2.7 million; I1909, 2.72 million, with a decrease of 61900 to 1.88 million; in terms of capital flows, the net inflow of RB1910 funds today was 189 million yuan; and the net outflow of I1909 funds was 576 million yuan. Viewpoint: the concussion is strong. Although iron ore port inventories continued to decline this week, the decline was significantly narrowed, falling from 2.98% last week to 0.36%, sparking concerns about the accumulation of ore stocks and slightly loosening ore prices, but because the fundamentals are still strong and do not have the basis for a trend decline, they are still dominated by high shocks. In terms of timber, the decline in inventory data this week has narrowed, and production has fallen slightly under the influence of the strict production restriction policy and the active production reduction of some production capacity losses, resulting in an overall bullish market. From a technical point of view, the current trend of bulls is good, there is still room for further upward. Coke, the first round of spot landing, the disk has been basically digested bad, the recent release of Luliang City around the implementation of some enterprises around the wrong peak production and production limit notice, causing concern about supply contraction, the price has been supported. On the whole, the current macro surface has warmed up, environmental protection continues to limit production, demand is not worried about a cliff decline, the short-term disk is still expected to shock strong operation. Strategy: RB1910 contract to see the range (3650, 3900); I1909 contract to look at the range (750860), more single Fenggao reduction, fall back and then pick up, rolling operation. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.

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