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[brief Review of SMM Hot Volume] the social database will continue to increase spot prices or will continue to be under pressure.
Jun 20,2019 19:21CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

On the treasury side: the total inventory of hot rolls nationwide this week was 3.1387 million tons, + 1.7% from the previous week and + 3.1% from the same period last year. Mainly due to the synchronous rise of factory and social libraries this week, leading to the increase of the total treasury. Among them: factory warehouse: this week's hot rolling plant warehouse 905800 tons, month-on-month ratio of + 2.0%, year-on-year-9.4%. Although there has been an increase in the month-on-month comparison, it is still down a lot from the same period last year. Mainly because, in the first two weeks, stimulated by the good news of steel mill price reduction and local debt, the demand for terminal replenishment has been temporarily released, and the shipping situation of steel mills has improved slightly. However, as downstream rigid demand is still weak, so this week's replenishment situation can not continue. Steel mill orders have weakened, so there has been an increase this week compared with the previous month. But the sad thing is that the factory warehouse fell by a large extent compared with the same period last year. Mainly due to the current steel mill production hot rolling profit fell 92% to 93% (the same period last year hot rolled steel mill profit of 1133 yuan / ton, the current hot rolled steel mill profit of 70 to 80 yuan / ton), the decline is huge, so the willingness to reduce production is strong. Therefore, there may be a turnaround in the later stage of the factory warehouse. Social warehouse: hot rolled this week 2.2329 million tons, month-on-month ratio + 1.5 per cent, year-on-year + 9.3 per cent. It has increased for four weeks. Mainly due to, early in the road resources have arrived in the market, resulting in a significant increase in shipments in the mainstream market this week. In addition, the interference of vertical and horizontal and other new production lines, but also caused greater pressure on social inventory.

In terms of price: the national average price of hot rolls this week was 3811.26 yuan per ton, down from 3848.52 yuan per ton last week. The decline was about the same as last week. Supply side: due to the current steel mill profits are low, coupled with some steel mills feedback July orders are still under pressure, so in order to cope with the low profit period and demand off-season, some steel mills may have maintenance plans. Therefore, it is expected that the supply of hot rolling in the later stage may be affected. Demand side: by this month downstream macro data feedback, downstream terminal demand is still poor, although there are cars, infrastructure and other good news released recently, but the specific implementation to the market still needs a certain period of time. Therefore, it is expected that it is difficult to improve the terminal demand in the late June. Combined with two aspects, spot prices are expected to maintain low volatility in late June. [SMM Steel]

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