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[SMM Black current Daily Review] return your pearl to tears, hate to meet when you are not married!
Jun 19,2019 17:47CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Current Review (19 June)



< 1 > spot aspect.


Steel market prices generally stopped falling and rebounded, rising 10 to 50 percent, and some regions gave up some of their gains in the afternoon. Trading volume: OK. The price of steel billet in Tangshan area rebounded 20 to 3440 yuan / ton yesterday. Market mentality: beautiful people in the rain.



Phase II steel.


Today, the stock market, commodities, black are all red.

If iron ore wants to see thousands of miles of scenery, please climb another high-rise building.


RB1910 main contract:


During the day, a huge reduction in positions, tail reduction to 130000 hands, within the day between 3723 to 3797 shock upward, closing 3770. The main organization has a net increase of 3204 hands per day.


HC1910 main contract:


During the day, a small reduction in positions, tail reduction to 16384 hands, within the day between 3588 to 3669 shock upward, closing 3653. The main organization within the day clearance single 24570 hands.


Iron ore l1909 main contract:


Looking back at 755.5 one smile 100 Meisheng 813


During the day, there was a substantial increase in positions and tail positions to 62384 hands, which rebounded strongly between 782.5 and 813 during the day, closing at 806.5 at the end of the day. The main organization has a net increase of 12094 hands per day.



Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:


During the day, there was a huge decrease in positions and an increase in positions to 42896 hands, with a strong shock between 2039.5 and 2089 during the day, with a final closing of 2066. The main organization within the day clearance single 226 hands.


Coking coal JM1909 main contract:


During the day, a small reduction, tail reduction to 658hands, in the day between 1383 to 1407 narrow range strong shock, closing 1393. The main organization within the day clearance order 676 hands.


Forecast for tomorrow.


1. Spot: concussion forward.


two。 Futures:


RB1910 main contract: between 3720 and 3820 concussion.


HC1910 main contract: between 3610 and 3710 concussion.


Iron ore l1909 main contract: 780 to 830 between shock.


Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2050 and 2130 concussion.


Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1360 and 1410 concussion.


< 4 > suggestions for current operation:


1. On the spot side. Stay the same.

Since the fall in May, most of the spot prices have been in the range of 300 + 30. The full opening of the low input is greater than the gradual replenishment stage. The smooth rolling operation of those who have completed the replenishment of the warehouse is the main one.


two。 Futures.


At the end of the material side.


The trend is more single, continue to grade, gradually intervene on the low side. If the operation ability is strong, it is appropriate to reduce the warehouse and roll along the value.


On the raw material side.


Iron ore l1909 contract:

Suggestion: it is appropriate for those with high stop earnings and trading ability to intervene in the vicinity of the upper edge value (the author forward-looking forecast position under the value of this landing).


Demon Jiao J1909 contract: multi-empty temporary wait-and-see is appropriate or near the lower edge value cloth more, the upper edge value near the cloth empty, fast in and out.


Coking coal JM1909 contract: it is appropriate to wait and see or intervene in the vicinity of the value.


< 5 > Heart language and information.

1. President Xi's appointment with Trump is not reliable, the global market is jubilant!

Note: it is particularly unreliable that Trump's election situation is urgent. The G20 summit is likely to hit the reef and leave the reef, but it is difficult to cover the clouds for a while.

two。 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: it is a global expectation for China and the United States to reach a mutually beneficial and win-win agreement on trade between China and the United States.

3. Electric arc furnace steel enterprises losses extended yesterday, long process profits continue to compress; many opportunities are far greater than empty opportunities.

4. Focus on tomorrow's data sunrise.

Forecast: the probability of increasing social database and looking back at factory warehouse is large.

5. Raw material end:

Scrap steel as a whole is stable and rising, and the rise and fall of all regions are mixed.

Spot iron ore prices continue to move forward: 62%PB powder prices 835, high prices ranging from 860 to 880. According to 835, the paste water is about 100.

6. Emphasis: Tangshan environmental protection to limit production "leachate in the rain". The author forecasts that the "rainfall" in July is larger than that in June. Any inflection point is formed, always in one-sided differences with it opposite to each other, hope and cherish!


With yesterday's heart words and information.

1. The United States and the United States held a hearing on the additional tariff of US $300 billion on China. Our Ministry of Foreign Affairs: opposition has gone from wave to wave.

two。 Macro policy:

A new round of 300 billion fee reduction is under way.

The scale of local bond issuance has accelerated again.

3. National Bureau of Statistics:

In May, China's steel bar output was 21.817 million tons, an increase of 22.9 percent over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to May was 95.743 million tons, an increase of 17.1 percent over the same period last year.

4. Tangshan area environmental protection limit production "leachate drizzle". No, no.

5. Electric arc furnace steel enterprises loss surface to expand, maintenance, stop production has been on the way! The profit of long process steel enterprise converges to 100 yuan / ton right small profit. Shagang raised scrap prices by 50 yuan per ton. The more clear the characteristics at the bottom of the steel price are, don't sing empty with the hindsight of riding the wall.

6. Iron ore from the fundamentals, short rhythm after looking back, continue to move on the road! The return of the "patriot" is a highly probable event; it is by no means a technical hulk, the manipulation of funds is so simple!

There is no big Qiang in the nature of 7.RB requirements. The nature of real estate demand in the medium term depends on the growth rate of new construction area, although 10.5% is down 2.6 PBs from 13.1% in April, superimposed on the road to make up for the shortcomings of infrastructure. The overall demand is resilient, do not groan without illness! Electric arc furnace production capacity review of large probability on the road, supply and demand is only a matter of time, high probability return period is already in sight!

With yesterday's heart words and information.

1. "seeking reality" article: recognize the nature of Sino-US trade friction, understand the general trend, and struggle to the end.

2. From June 16 to June 23, the Yangtze River Basin will welcome a new round of heavy rainfall.

3. Coke: Shanxi Jinnan individual coke enterprises up and down 100 yuan / ton, the author predicted that the fourth round of price increases are dead in the middle of the ground. Due to the further convergence of steel mill profits, "deceiving soft (coke) afraid of hard (iron ore)" strengthening.

4. Iron ore: the ore on the impact of 800 fruitless, the basic no Qiang, more is the previous single profit-taking and disk infection. High demand (the impact of production restriction in Tangshan area is limited), high discount, supply-side substantial convergence has not changed essentially, looking back on more single re-intervention.

5. The current basis difference has entered a reasonable range, the late high probability period is now peer, the trend into the rebound cycle.

6. The average profit of long-process steel enterprises is 200 yuan / ton, some of the short-process electric arc furnace steel enterprises have entered the loss, most of them still have a small profit. Next, steel mill maintenance, stop production gradually return, until the market know that production capacity review, try to fill inventory in a hurry? How much can you make up for the bottom?! The road to the bottom, take the initiative to find the sleeve is the robust means of operation. Do not follow others, for your reference!

7. The steel billet in Tangshan fell sharply and production was suspended only by independent rolling mills. The environmental protection production limit in Tangshan in June was more than that of "Rain Water" in May, which is now in line with expectations. For more information, see the author's prediction of environmental protection and production restriction policy, not to repeat!

8. The weather to the demand short rhythm disturbance, the child all knows not to be worth to state; just emphasizes one point, the demand originally does not have Qiang, the return period is already in sight!

9. The demand for industrial materials is more sad, RB and its production capacity hole games take place? Familiar with it, most of the steel enterprises producing RB are small private enterprises, and the higher end of production includes and is not limited to cold heading steel, high quality carbon structural steel (hard wire, tire meridian, prestress), cold rolled sheet, seamless steel pipe, military steel, boiler steel, chemical steel and so on. In a word, the kinetic energy of hole motion is very limited.


The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. For details, see the outlook for the steel market in June and the weekly review on June 14.



Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781


(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)


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