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[SMM Black Futures Review] 20190 619: Chinese and US heads of state exchange phone calls, commodities are again boosted
Jun 19,2019 13:29CST
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Source:SMM
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In terms of volume and price: RB1910 closed 38 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 3770 yuan / ton; HC1910 closed up 52 yuan / ton at 3653 yuan / ton; I1909 closed 20.5 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day, closing at 806.5 yuan / ton; J1909 closed up 10.5 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2066 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 handled 3.82 million transactions, with positions reduced by 126300 to 2.6 million; I1909, 3.53 million, increased by 62400 to 1.87 million; in terms of capital flows, RB1910 had a net outflow of 298 million yuan today; and I1909 had a net inflow of 699 million yuan. Viewpoint: the concussion is strong. Last night, Chinese President Xi Jinping made an ordinary telephone call with US President Trang to confirm that the two sides would meet on the sidelines of the Osaka summit to exchange views on fundamental issues related to the development of Sino-US relations. The prospect of a trade war may take a turn for the better. As soon as the news came out, commodities rebounded across the board. Ore soared, strong breakthrough 800, 810 two passes, the highest as high as 813 in nearly five years. Driven by the ore, other black varieties have also strengthened. At present, the relationship between supply and demand of ore is still good, although the price rose to a high level, the market is afraid of high, but the strong is always strong, in the gap is difficult to effectively make up, and demand has not been significantly weakened, prices lack of downward logic. In the case of rebar, the profits of steel mills have been further compressed recently, and it is unlikely that the profits will continue to be compressed downwards. After all, the consumer side does not see the possibility of a cliff-like decline, and there is room for repair of disk profits. Bifocal, recently affected by spot increases and falls, the trend is relatively weak, today, most steel mills following the mainstream steel mills to reduce 100 yuan / ton, coke enterprises, one after another to implement price reduction, however, due to Linyi area coke enterprises to limit production, Shandong dry quenching coke is more tense, the price is relatively strong, after the implementation of the price reduction, the price may maintain the concussion bottom pattern. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3650, 3850); I1909 contract range (750830), do more on the low side. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.

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