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[SMM Black Daily Review] Rainbow after the wind and rain
Jun 18,2019 18:52CST
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Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Current Review (18 June)

            

 

< 1 > spot aspect.

 

Steel market prices are generally stable, the first class of regional brands are weak and stable, early weak and strong in the afternoon, and the third category of brands rose (ranging from 0 to 60 yuan / ton). Volume: better than yesterday. Billet prices in Tangshan have rebounded by 10 to 342 yuan per ton. Market mentality: metastable dominant.

    

 

Phase II steel.

      

The overall differentiation of the black system: strong shock at the end of the wood; strong coke at the end of the raw material.

       

RB1910 main contract:

 

During the day, there was a huge increase and decrease in positions, a sharp reduction in positions near the end of the day, and an increase in housing positions to 41368 hands, fluctuating between 3683 and 3737 during the day, with a close of 3732 at the end of the day. The main organization has a net increase of 20995 hands per day.

 

HC1910 main contract:

 

During the day, the number of positions increased or decreased slightly, and the number of positions increased to 816. during the day, there was a concussion between 3558 and 3604, with a final closing of 3601. The main organization within the day clearance single 1460 hands.

 

Iron ore l1909 main contract:

 

During the day, there was a sharp reduction in positions and tail positions to 48104 hands, and there was a strong rebound between 755.5 and 787.5 during the day, with a close of 786. in the first half of the day, there was a strong rebound in the bottom of the day. The main organization within the day clearance single 6797 hands.

 

 

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:

 

During the day, there was a huge reduction in positions and tail positions to 30964 hands, continuing the decline between 2033 and 2068.5 during the day, closing at 2055.5 at the end of the day. The main organization within the day clearance single 706 hands.

 

Coking coal JM1909 main contract:

 

During the day, a small increase in positions, tail positions to 1626 hands, in the day between 1376 and 1391 narrow horizontal plate concussion, closing 1389. The main organization within a day net more than 632 hands.

 

Forecast for tomorrow.

 

1. Spot: stable and stronger.

 

two。 Futures:

 

RB1910 main contract: between 3715 and 3800 concussion.

 

HC1910 main contract: between 3580 and 3680 concussion.

 

Iron ore l1909 main contract: between 770 and 810 concussion.

 

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2030 and 2130 concussion.

 

Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1360 and 1410 concussion.

 

< 4 > advice for current operation: remain unchanged, the same as yesterday.

 

1. On the spot side.

Since the fall in May, most of the spot prices have been in the range of 300 + 30. The full opening of the low input is greater than the gradual replenishment stage. Don't dance with the parapet.

 

two。 Futures.

 

At the end of the material side.

 

The trend is more single, continue to grade, gradually intervene on the low side. If the operation ability is strong, it is appropriate to reduce the warehouse and roll along the value.

 

On the raw material side.

 

Iron ore l1909 contract: practice the author's suggestion: more than one intervention near the lower value, more than one stop off the field around 800; high throwing and low suction rolling operation.

 

Demon Jiao J1909 contract: it is appropriate to wait and see for a while.

 

Coking coal JM1909 contract: it is appropriate to wait and see or intervene in the vicinity of the value.

 

< 5 > Heart language and information.

1. The United States and the United States held a hearing on the additional tariff of US $300 billion on China. Our Ministry of Foreign Affairs: opposition has gone from wave to wave.

two。 Macro policy:

A new round of 300 billion fee reduction is under way.

The scale of local bond issuance has accelerated again.

3. National Bureau of Statistics:

In May, China's steel bar output was 21.817 million tons, an increase of 22.9 percent over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to May was 95.743 million tons, an increase of 17.1 percent over the same period last year.

4. Tangshan area environmental protection limit production "leachate drizzle". No, no.

5. Electric arc furnace steel enterprises loss surface to expand, maintenance, stop production has been on the way! The profit of long process steel enterprise converges to 100 yuan / ton right small profit. Shagang raised scrap prices by 50 yuan per ton. The more clear the characteristics at the bottom of the steel price are, don't sing empty with the hindsight of riding the wall.

6. Iron ore from the fundamentals, short rhythm after looking back, continue to move on the road! The return of the "patriot" is a highly probable event; it is by no means a technical hulk, the manipulation of funds is so simple!

There is no big Qiang in the nature of 7.RB requirements. The nature of real estate demand in the medium term depends on the growth rate of new construction area, although 10.5% is down 2.6 PBs from 13.1% in April, superimposed on the road to make up for the shortcomings of infrastructure. The overall demand is resilient, do not groan without illness! Electric arc furnace production capacity review of large probability on the road, supply and demand is only a matter of time, high probability return period is already in sight!

With yesterday's heart words and information.

1. "seeking reality" article: recognize the nature of Sino-US trade friction, understand the general trend, and struggle to the end.

2. From June 16 to June 23, the Yangtze River Basin will welcome a new round of heavy rainfall.

3. Coke: Shanxi Jinnan individual coke enterprises up and down 100 yuan / ton, the author predicted that the fourth round of price increases are dead in the middle of the ground. Due to the further convergence of steel mill profits, "deceiving soft (coke) afraid of hard (iron ore)" strengthening.

4. Iron ore: the ore on the impact of 800 fruitless, the basic no Qiang, more is the previous single profit-taking and disk infection. High demand (the impact of production restriction in Tangshan area is limited), high discount, supply-side substantial convergence has not changed essentially, looking back on more single re-intervention.

5. The current basis difference has entered a reasonable range, the late high probability period is now peer, the trend into the rebound cycle.

6. The average profit of long-process steel enterprises is 200 yuan / ton, some of the short-process electric arc furnace steel enterprises have entered the loss, most of them still have a small profit. Next, steel mill maintenance, stop production gradually return, until the market know that production capacity review, try to fill inventory in a hurry? How much can you make up for the bottom?! The road to the bottom, take the initiative to find the sleeve is the robust means of operation. Do not follow others, for your reference!

7. The steel billet in Tangshan fell sharply and production was suspended only by independent rolling mills. The environmental protection production limit in Tangshan in June was more than that of "Rain Water" in May, which is now in line with expectations. For more information, see the author's prediction of environmental protection and production restriction policy, not to repeat!

8. The weather to the demand short rhythm disturbance, the child all knows not to be worth to state; just emphasizes one point, the demand originally does not have Qiang, the return period is already in sight!

9. The demand for industrial materials is more sad, RB and its production capacity hole games take place? Familiar with it, most of the steel enterprises producing RB are small private enterprises, and the higher end of production includes and is not limited to cold heading steel, high quality carbon structural steel (hard wire, tire meridian, prestress), cold rolled sheet, seamless steel pipe, military steel, boiler steel, chemical steel and so on. In a word, the kinetic energy of hole motion is very limited.

 

The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. For details, see the outlook for the steel market in June and the weekly review on June 14.

Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781

 

(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)

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