[SMM Black Futures Review] 20190 618: downstream demand is supported and ore returns strongly again

In terms of volume and price, RB1910 rose 28 yuan / ton to close at 3732 yuan / ton; HC1910 closed up 16 yuan / ton to close at 3601 yuan / ton; I1909 closed up 17.5yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day to close at 786yuan / ton; J1909 closed down 9 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day to close at 2055.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 handled 2.62 million transactions, an increase of 41400 to 2.72 million; I1909, 2.33 million, with a decrease of 48100 to 1.81 million; in terms of capital flows, the net inflow of RB1910 funds today was 184 million yuan; and the net outflow of I1909 funds was 42.88 million yuan.

Viewpoint: the concussion is strong. Iron ore futures hit the 800 barrier failed on Friday, the last two days of continuous adjustment, the market pessimism has been released, late today again sharply pulled up, close to the previous high. The strong performance of iron ore is closely related to its fundamentals, data show that iron ore port stocks continued to decline, pig iron production in May 72.19 million tons, an average daily output of 2.329 million tons, a record high, indicating that ore supply relations are still good, at the same time, the disk is still heavily discount spot, but also to support prices. Rebar, today showed a concussion upward trend, although the current steel inventory has begun to appear base warehouse, demand has also been weakened, but under the influence of environmental protection news, the market for supply-side contraction has a certain expectation, and the current steel mill profits have fallen sharply, some electric furnace plants have suffered losses, the expectation of steel mills to take the initiative to reduce production has also been enhanced, which also makes the space for futures prices to fall is more limited. Coke due to the increase in cost pressure of steel plants, the intention to suppress raw materials is obvious, yesterday, Shandong on behalf of steel enterprises on behalf of coke prices down 100, some steel mills have accepted price adjustment, the scope of late reduction or increase, coke price pressure is larger, short-term or maintain a weak shock pattern.

Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3650, 3850); I1909 contract range (750820), do more on the low side.

Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.