Current Review (17 June)
< 1 > spot aspect.
Over the weekend, steel billet fell 70 yuan per ton in Tangshan. As a result, the overall steel market price fell sharply, ranging from 30 yuan to 100 yuan per ton in three days (the actual transaction price of the three brands in Shanghai in East China was 3720 yuan / ton). Trading volume: OK. Billet prices in Tangshan fell by 90 to 3410 yuan per ton. Market mentality: singing in unison!
Phase II steel.
Today's stock market consolidation; goods light green, black is the overall fat green.
RB1910 main contract:
During the day, a huge increase in positions, tail positions to 148172 hands, in the day between 3754 and 3700 shock downward, closing 3704. The main organization has a net increase of 4268 hands per day.
HC1910 main contract:
During the day, a small increase in positions, tail positions to 16606 hands, in the day between 3634 and 3570 shock downward, closing 3585. The main organization has a net increase of 6161 hands per day.
Iron ore l1909 main contract:
During the day, a substantial reduction in positions, tail positions to 36334 hands, within the day between 777 and 760.5 shock down, closing 768.5. The main organization within the day clearance single 5932 hands.
Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:
During the day, a huge increase in positions, tail positions to 44102 hands, in the day between 2126 and 2056 shock, line, closing 2064. The main organization within the day clearance order 542 hands.
Coking coal JM1909 main contract:
During the day, a small reduction, tail reduction to 13508 hands, within the day between 1396 and 1380 narrow range of shock down, closing 1383.5. The main organization has a net increase of 1143 hands per day.
Forecast for tomorrow.
1. Spot aspect: early weak afternoon strong probability is big, rebound is imminent.
RB1910 main contract: between 3700 and 3780 concussion.
HC1910 main contract: between 3570 and 3670 concussion.
Iron ore l1909 main contract: between 745 and 780 concussion.
Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2030 and 2130 concussion.
Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1360 and 1410 concussion.
< 4 > suggestions for current operation.
1. On the spot side.
Since the fall in May, most of the spot prices have been in the range of 300 + 30. The full opening of the low input is greater than the gradual replenishment stage. Don't dance with the parapet.
At the end of the material side.
The trend is mainly single and low and gradually involved.
On the raw material side.
Iron ore L1909 contract: multiple orders near the lower value and then intervene.
Demon Jiao J1909 contract: it is appropriate to wait and see for a while.
Coking coal JM1909 contract: it is appropriate to wait and see or intervene in the vicinity of the value.
< 5 > Heart language and information.
1. "realistic" article: recognize the nature of Sino-US trade friction, struggle to the end.
2. From June 16 to June 23, the Yangtze River Basin will welcome a new round of heavy rainfall.
3. Coke: Shanxi Jinnan individual coke enterprises up and down 100 yuan / ton, the author predicted that the fourth round of price increases are dead in the middle of the ground. Due to the further convergence of steel mill profits, "deceiving soft (coke) afraid of hard (iron ore)" strengthening.
4. Iron ore: the ore on the impact of 800 fruitless, the basic no Qiang, more is the previous single profit-taking and disk infection. High demand (the impact of production restriction in Tangshan area is limited), high discount, supply-side substantial convergence has not changed essentially, looking back on more single re-intervention.
5. The current basis difference has entered a reasonable range, the late high probability period is now peer, the trend into the rebound cycle.
6. The average profit of long-process steel enterprises is 250 yuan / ton, some of the short-process electric arc furnace steel enterprises have entered the loss, most of them still have a small profit. Next, steel mill maintenance, stop production gradually return, until the market know that production capacity review, try to fill inventory in a hurry? How much can you make up for the bottom?! The road to the bottom, take the initiative to find the sleeve is the robust means of operation. Do not follow others, for your reference!
7. The steel billet in Tangshan fell sharply and production was suspended only by independent rolling mills. The environmental protection production limit in Tangshan in June was more than that of "Rain Water" in May, which is now in line with expectations. For more information, see the author's prediction of environmental protection and production restriction policy, not to repeat!
8. The weather to the demand short rhythm disturbance, the child all knows not to be worth to state; just emphasizes one point, the demand originally does not have Qiang, the return period is already in sight!
9. The demand for industrial materials is more sad, RB and its production capacity hole games take place? Familiar with it, most of the steel enterprises producing RB are small private enterprises, and the higher end of production includes and is not limited to cold heading steel, high quality carbon structural steel (hard wire, tire meridian, prestress), cold rolled sheet, seamless steel pipe, military steel, boiler steel, chemical steel and so on. In a word, the kinetic energy of hole motion is very limited.
The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. For details, see the outlook for the steel market in June and the weekly review on June 14.
Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781
(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)