[SMM Thread Analysis] Thread circumference carding: the inflection point appears at the beginning-the spot price "does not change"

[review and Prospect]:

Futures: this week's snail trend volatility is strong, as of today snail 1910 contract settlement price 3785, compared with last Thursday 3713 yuan / ton, up 72 yuan / ton.

Spot: the national average price of thread today fell 36.6 yuan / ton from 3985.9 yuan / ton last Friday to 4022.5 yuan / ton. The average weekly price fell 44.3 yuan per ton, compared with an average price of 4006.2 yuan per ton this week.

The trend of this week is now separated, and the future snail is stimulated by good news (on June 11, the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the notice on doing a good job in the issuance of local special bonds and supporting their respective projects, and the infrastructure industry has once again received strong support. June 13, the Gulf of Oman two cruise ships were attacked, the raw material end of the plate fluttering red), the snail twice strong pull up, and spot prices are difficult to match the fundamental weakness of the pressure to continue the decline.

With the passage of time, the precipitation in the south has not decreased, while the north has gradually entered the high temperature range, and it is inevitable that demand will fall back. However, on the one hand, steel cost-side support is still strong (iron ore fundamentals support strong, Shanxi, Shandong and production restrictions, coking enterprise supply may be reduced); On the other hand, there are new variables in environmental protection-recently, the Ministry of Ecological Environment interviewed some cities in Hebei, Henan and Shanxi on the comprehensive control of air pollution in autumn and winter from 2018 to 2019, and Tangshan has issued a policy to limit production again on the issue of environmental protection, the specific implementation of which is not yet clear; In addition, short process steel mills in some areas have already reduced production due to losses, so it is expected that although the weakening trend of spot prices is difficult to reverse for the time being, there is not much room for decline, and the rate of decline may further converge.

[fundamentals]

According to the SMM survey, at present, the profits of steel mills are still ranging from 200 to 500yuan / ton, and the willingness to produce steel mills is still unabated. According to SMM statistics, the operating rate of blast furnace in June was 89.85%, an increase of 0.27% over May. (according to the SMM survey, 31 steel mills that mainly produce building materials in June plan to produce 8.2784 million tons, a month-on-month ratio of + 2.51%). Although in the case of falling spot prices and sharp contraction of steel profits, electric arc furnace steel mills in some areas may have plans to reduce production, but the operating rate of electric arc furnace steel plants in June remained high (79% in June). The operating rate of billet rolling mills is 77%, which is 1% lower than that in May, and the situation of high supply has not changed.

However, it is worth noting that recently, Shanxi, Tangshan and other places again to limit the production of environmental protection policy, its specific implementation is not clear, if the policy is tightened, coupled with increased interference from high temperature and precipitation, whether there will be steel mills to take advantage of this opportunity to repair is still unknown, the follow-up situation SMM steel will continue to track.

2. Demand side: the traditional off-season attack, the decline in demand is in line with expectations

The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that China's real estate development investment, new construction area, and infrastructure investment growth rate all slowed slightly from January to May, but under seasonal interference, the decline was basically in line with market expectations. Of which:

(1) Infrastructure: from January to May 2019, China's infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply) increased by 4% compared with the same period last year, down 0.4 percentage points from January to April.

(2) Real estate: from January to May 2019, investment in real estate development nationwide was 4.6075 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.2 percent over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.7 percentage points lower than that from January to April. New housing construction area of 797.84 million square meters, an increase of 10.5 percent, the growth rate fell 2.6 percentage points.

From January to May, the land purchase area of real estate development enterprises was 51.7 million square meters, down 33.2 percent from the same period last year, and the decline was 0.6 percentage points lower than that from January to April.

(3) fixed investment: from January to May 2019, national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 21.7555 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6 percent over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points lower than that from January to April. In terms of month-on-month speed, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) rose by 0.41% in May. Of this total, private fixed asset investment totaled 13.0823 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.3 percent over the same period last year, down 0.2 percentage points from January to April.

[inventory]

Total inventory: total inventory this week was 7.7966 million tons, up 2.6 per cent from last week to + 199000 tons, and up 1.0897 million tons from the same period last year, up 16.2 per cent from the same period last year.

Social inventory: this week's social inventory was 5.5206 million tons, up 1.9 per cent from last week, and up 768200 tons from the same period last year, up 16.2 per cent from the same period last year.

In-plant inventory: this week's factory inventory of 2.276 million tons, compared with last week + 96500 tons, an increase of 4.4% over the previous month, an increase of 321500 tons over the same period last year, an increase of 16.4% over the same period last year.

[macro and policy aspects]

1. The country has sufficient macro policy space and the ability to deal with all kinds of uncertainties.

Yi Gang, governor of the people's Bank of China, attended a meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Fukuoka, Japan, from June 8 to 9, according to a central bank announcement. At the meeting, Yi Gang expounded his position on China's economic and financial situation, RMB exchange rate, trade issues, and so on. Yi Gang said: China's economic operation is steady and advanced, and the economic fundamentals are good, and the people's Bank of China will keep the growth rate of broad money and social financing basically in line with the nominal GDP growth rate, continue to deepen the market-oriented reform of the exchange rate, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. President Yi Gang stressed that the G20 parties should jointly demonstrate their willingness to cooperate in resolving trade frictions and send a positive signal to the international community. China has plenty of macro policy space, rich policy toolbox and the ability to deal with all kinds of uncertainties.

two。 Circular on the issuance of Special Local Government Bonds and supporting financing of projects issued by the Central Office and the State Office

The circular calls for unwavering efforts to take supply-side structural reform as the main line, adhere to the basic idea of structural deleveraging, and further improve the local government borrowing and financing mechanism in accordance with firm, controllable, orderly, and moderate requirements. We will promote the reform of the management of special bonds, on the basis of significantly increasing the scale of special bonds, strengthen coordination and coordination of macro policies, and maintain reasonable and abundant market liquidity. Do a good job in special bond issuance and project financing to promote economic operation in a reasonable range. For major projects with certain returns and all of which belong to the income of government funds, local governments shall issue special bonds to finance them.

[summary of major events]

1. Starting from next month, the National sixth Emission Standard will be implemented in many places to promote and clear the inventory of the national five cars.

In the "three-year Action Plan to win the Blue Sky Defense War" issued by the State Council in July last year, it was clearly stipulated that the sixth National Emission Standard would be implemented in advance in key areas, the Pearl River Delta region and Chengdu and Chongqing regions starting from July 1 this year. We will promote the use of gas vehicles that meet the sixth emission standards of the country. Recently, many places have announced the implementation of the new policy of switching from country five to country six, that is, starting from July 1 this year, only vehicles that meet the country six emission standards can be licensed. For a while, car dealers in these areas began to step up efforts to promote the national five cars.

2. The "era of big central enterprises" has come one after another. Chinalco, China Merchants and Baowu have made a series of moves.

Recently, Anhui SASAC transferred 51% of the stake in Maanshan Iron and Steel Group to China Baowu Iron and Steel Group for free. At the same time, China Merchants Group has realized the holding of Liaogang Group. The above cases are the reorganization of local state-owned enterprises by central enterprises, which reflects the new trend of the reform of state-owned enterprises. Industry insiders said that a new era of cooperation between the central and local governments has begun, and at the same time, the direction of making the main industry bigger and stronger in the reform of state-owned enterprises has not changed. With regard to a series of new changes in the field of state-owned enterprise reform, the organization even said bluntly that the reform of state-owned enterprises is expected to open a new chapter, and 2019 is expected to be the key year for a breakthrough in the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises.

3. Zhejiang Province to promote the "Belt and Road Initiative" Construction Conference signed a project investment of more than 14.3 billion US dollars

The Zhejiang Provincial Conference on promoting the Construction of "Belt and Road Initiative" was held in Ningbo on June 8. The reporter learned from the meeting that the conference successfully signed 20 projects, with a total investment of more than US $14.3 billion. Of these, 9 were foreign-funded projects with a total investment of US $2.4 billion, and 11 were overseas investment projects with a total investment of US $11.9 billion.

The inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in April and May is 1.65 and the inventory level is above the warning line.

According to a survey released by the China Automobile Circulation Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of auto dealers in May was 1.65, up 4% from a year earlier, down 18% from the previous month, and the inventory level was above the warning line. The China Automobile Circulation Association said that under the influence of the country's five countries and six switching policies, dealers are under increased pressure to clear warehouses and enter cars more cautiously. As the car market entered the off-season in June, the pressure on dealers increased further.

5. Tianjin supports the construction of planning and design, ecological protection and port logistics in Xiongan New District.

Tianjin actively docking Xiongan New District, fully support its planning and design, ecological protection, port logistics and other areas of construction. Sun Hujun, deputy director of the Tianjin Municipal Development and Reform Commission, said that Tianjin will fully implement the Tianjin-Hebei strategic cooperation agreement on actively promoting the construction and development of Xiongan New District, as well as the new round of strategic cooperation agreements between Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. We will deepen coordination in planning and construction, industry, ecology and public services, and promote the sharing of talent, technology and other resources.

6. Baosteel shares cut the ex-factory prices of some products in July

Baosteel shares cut the ex-factory prices of some products in July: thick plate, cold rolling, pickling and other base prices remain unchanged, hot rolling, color coating, non-oriented electrical steel and other non-tax reduction of 100 yuan / ton.

7. The first phase of the 2 million ton cold rolling project of Tangshan Port and Land Iron and Steel was put into production smoothly.

On the morning of June 10, the first phase of the 2 million ton cold rolling project of Tangshan Port and Land Cold Rolling Co., Ltd. was officially put into production. The first phase of the total investment of 1.45 billion yuan, the construction of 1.2 million tons of acid continuous rolling production line and ancillary facilities, the overall design of the project and major equipment are the use of domestic and foreign industry leading technology and high-end configuration.

8. Passenger Federation: retail sales of broad passenger cars in May 1.61 million units

Sales of narrow passenger cars were about 1.582 million in May, up 4.8 per cent from a month earlier and down 12.5 per cent from a year earlier, according to domestic passenger car production and sales figures released by the Federation on June 11. Of these, car sales were about 805000, down 13.2% from a year earlier to about 669000, down 9.6% from a year earlier to about 108000, down 22.9% from a year earlier. Retail sales of broad passenger cars in May were 1.61 million, down 12.5% from a year earlier, the 12th consecutive month of year-on-year decline.

9. Jiangsu Province issues "five Major plans" Special Action Plan to promote the Construction of "Belt and Road Initiative" intersection Point with High quality

Recently, the Jiangsu provincial government held a press conference to issue the "opinions of the provincial party committee and provincial government on promoting the construction of the" Belt and Road Initiative "intersection point of high quality" and the special action plan to promote the "five major plans." The "opinion" defines the key points and directions for the development of key districts and cities, including supporting Lianyungang to build a strategic fulcrum, Xuzhou to build an important node city, Nanjing to build an important hub city, Nantong to build an important sea gateway, Suzhou and Wuxi to build an international production capacity cooperation demonstration city, and other places to build characteristic cooperation bases, highlight key points, and create characteristics.

10. Shanxi issued a system to deal with the hidden dangers of major accidents in coal mines

From Shanxi Province Emergency Management Office learned that Shanxi recently issued the "notice on the establishment of coal mine major accident management supervision system", the notice requires that coal mine safety supervision departments at all levels to investigate the hidden dangers of major accidents, in accordance with the relevant provisions, immediately ordered the coal mine to stop production, eliminate hidden dangers, and timely issue relevant law enforcement documents to hidden trouble management units.

11. the attack on the tanker pushed up the price of oil. PetroAmerica closed 2.2% higher on Thursday.

Crude oil futures closed higher on Thursday. The attack on two oil tankers off the Iranian coast near the Strait of Hormuz has escalated tensions in US-Iranian relations and raised concerns about possible disruptions in crude oil supplies. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) for August delivery rose $1.14, or 2.2%, to close at $51.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising as high as $53.45 a barrel.

12. the focus of the new round of central ecological and environmental protection inspectors is to "keep a close eye on"

The second round of inspectors is just around the corner. The person in charge said, "will continue to adhere to problem-oriented" is the core key words of the second round of inspectors. In the future work, more emphasis will be placed on the effectiveness of inspectors and attention will be paid to the prevention of environmental pollution and ecological damage from the source. "five close eyes are the focus of the new round of inspectors." Liu Changgen, executive deputy director of the Central Ecological Environmental Protection Inspector's Office, explained that it is necessary to keep a close eye on the implementation of the political responsibility for ecological environmental protection, closely focus on the transformation of the concept and mode of development, closely focus on highlighting the solution of ecological and environmental problems, closely focus on the first round of inspectors and "look back" to find problems to rectify and reform, and closely focus on the long-term mechanism of ecological and environmental protection.

13. Tangshan environmental protection and production restrictions: Fengnan District June air pollution prevention and control of iron and steel enterprises stop production list, Fengrun District issued a notice on improving the intensity of air quality control in June

Recently, from the Tangshan Fengnan District Government website learned that in June air pollution prevention and control of iron and steel enterprises stop production list, involving steel enterprises are Ruifeng Iron and Steel, Donghua Iron and Steel, Kaiheng Iron and Steel, Jing'an Iron and Steel, vertical and horizontal iron and steel, Yuefeng Iron and Steel. Fengrun District also issued a notice on improving the intensity of air quality control in June.