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[brief comment on SMM Hot Volume] this week, the steel mill will continue the transfer of the factory warehouse to the social database in order to reduce the price in order to close the deal.
Jun 13,2019 18:29CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Inventory:

The total inventory of hot rolls nationwide this week was 3.0867 million tons, + 2.0 per cent from last week and + 4.8 per cent from the same period last year. The rise in the treasury this week was mainly driven by a rise in social inventories. Among them,

Steel plant inventory: this week's hot rolling mill warehouse 887700 tons, month-on-month ratio of-2.8%, compared with the same period last year-6.4%. This week is still in the process of transferring the factory warehouse to the social database. According to SMM steel mill research feedback, led by a sharp rise in futures earlier this week, terminal procurement sentiment has been boosted, so traders orders have been released, and steel mill feedback initial order situation has improved slightly. However, due to the overall market rigid demand is weak, so the overall change is not significant.

Social inventory: hot rolled this week 2.199 million tons, month-on-month + 4.1%, year-on-year + 10.1%. The social base has increased significantly, and the growth rate has been enlarged. Mainly due to, from May to now the overall terminal procurement demand continues to be weak, the market resources are difficult to digest in time, resulting in continuous accumulation of inventory in recent weeks. In addition, new production resources have reached the market one after another this week, so the growth of the social database has been increased.

In terms of price:

The national average price of hot rolls this week was 3848.52 yuan per ton, down from 3900 yuan per ton last week, a drop of-51.48 yuan per ton, basically the same as last week.

Supply side: the planned output of steel mills has fallen (- 3%) this month, but the decline is relatively small, and the overall supply is more stable.

Demand side: currently in the traditional off-season, the overall real demand is relatively weak.

As a result, some steel mills have chosen to lower their ex-factory prices in response to continued weak demand. Coupled with the recent policy side of good news and raw material price rise support, so it is expected that the subsequent spot price probability is in a weak state of shock, but there is not much room.

In terms of transaction:

Today, the spot price in the mainstream market is relatively stable, the respective markets have fallen, and the trading volume has continued to be weak. Among them,

Shanghai market: the spot price of hot coil is down 10-30 yuan / ton this year, and the mainstream price is 3810-3830 yuan / ton. The transaction performance is weak.

Tianjin market: the spot price of today's hot volume is basically stable, with a mainstream price of 3800 to 3810 yuan per ton. The deal is poor.

Lecong market: today's hot volume spot price is basically stable, the mainstream reported 3890 3920 yuan / ton. Transaction deviation. [SMM Steel]

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