[SMM Black Futures Review] 20190 613: a new round of environmental inspection is just around the corner, and black will take off again.

In terms of volume and price, RB1910 rose 16 yuan / ton to close at 3792 yuan / ton; HC1910 rose 17 yuan / ton to close at 3637 yuan / ton; I1909 rose 17 yuan / ton to close at 781.5 yuan / ton; J1909 closed 37 yuan / ton higher than the previous day to close at 2151.5 yuan / ton. In terms of position data, RB1910 sold 3.5 million transactions, down 12900 to 2.5 million; I1909, 2.04 million, increased by 98000 to 1.82 million; in terms of capital flows, RB1910 had a net outflow of 6.97 million yuan today; and I1909 recorded a net outflow of 855 million yuan.

Point of view: concussion upward. Today's new inventory data show that this week rebar plant inventory and social inventory data both increased, and production continues to hit a new high, the total amount of social inventory of the five major varieties also began to appear inflection point, the data caused short-term disturbance to the disk, RB1910 once fell below 3750 support level, down to 3744. However, there was sudden news in the afternoon that two cruise ships in the Gulf of Oman were attacked, raising concerns about the security of the global oil supply. Affected by the news, crude oil prices rose rapidly, and commodity markets were driven higher one after another. By the end of the day, all black varieties closed higher. Today, the Ministry of Ecological Environment interviewed the Baoding, Langfang, Luoyang, Anyang, Puyang and Jinzhong six municipal governments of Hebei Province on the comprehensive management of air pollution in autumn and winter from 2018 to 2019, demanding a resolute victory in the blue sky defense war, and the expectation of environmental protection heats up again. Shandong Linyi has also heard the news of stricter environmental protection. The government has asked local enterprises to stop production for one month and will be implemented within nearly three days. At present, the approved production capacity of the three metallurgical coke enterprises in Linyi is 4.2 million tons, of which the production capacity is 3.3 million tons. If the environmental protection shutdown policy is strictly implemented, the coke supply is expected to be reduced by about 270000 tons per month. At present, despite the inflection point of inventory, the absolute level is still low, and can not form immediate pressure on the market, and environmental protection policies began to tighten, will cause greater disturbance to the supply side. The contradiction between supply and demand of ore is difficult to solve effectively in the short term, cost-side support still exists, black prices are expected to rise and fall. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3750, 3900); I1909 contract range (750800). Multiple holdings. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.