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[2019.6.13 minutes of nickel internal morning meeting] Shanghai nickel contract Back structure expansion spot transaction is general, but traders are still rising water
Jun 13,2019 10:46CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Macroscopically, the US did not adjust the annual rate of CPI by 1.80% in May, below the expected value of 0.1%, compared with the previous value of 2%. In May, the core CPI recorded an annual rate of 2%, with both the previous value and the expected value of 2.1%. Us inflation fell in May as a rebound in food prices was offset by lower gasoline prices, suggesting moderate inflation could increase pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates this year. However, as the Fed's interest rate cut for the year is expected to have been overhyped by the market, the US index has rallied after the release of the index, while gold has rallied; the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that EIA crude oil stocks increased by 2.206 million barrels in the week to June 07, which is expected to fall by 481000 barrels, and the previous value was increased by 6.771 million barrels. After the release of the EIA data, WTI crude oil changed little in the short term, falling 1.64 percent within a day. Brent crude oil moved little, falling 2.44 per cent on the day; European stocks followed the overnight fall in US stocks as European central bank president Jean-Claude Draghi and International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director Christine Lagarde warned of global trade disputes on Wednesday. Today, we are mainly concerned about the number of initial jobless claims in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment. The 11th Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai today. Topics include strengthening financial cooperation between China and the UK. It is understood that there may be more "Shanghai Stock Connect" related content to be released today and tomorrow.

Nickel spot market: June 12 SMM 1 # electrolytic nickel 98200 to 99200 yuan / ton. Yesterday morning, Russian nickel than Wuxi 1906 level water to liter water 100 yuan / ton, Russian nickel rising water as a whole, but not caused by the improvement of downstream transactions, mainly due to some traders expected to expand the back structure in the later period, so even if the spot market due to the rise in absolute prices and lead to bad transactions, but the holders are still very high water, low-priced goods are not easy to receive. Compared with Wuxi 1906 contract, Jinchuan nickel generally reported a water rise of 900 yuan to 1, 100 yuan per ton. The rising water is basically stable, and Jinchuan Company is mainly shipping in the near future. Jinchuan ex-factory price quoted 98800 yuan / ton, up 1500 yuan / ton from yesterday, the mainstream transaction at 98100 99000 yuan / ton. In the afternoon nickel prices fell, some of the downstream a small amount of procurement, but still not to the downstream psychological price, traders continue to rise, transactions all day to see more light. The mainstream transaction is between 97700 and 98800 yuan per ton.

Stainless steel market: June 12, Wuxi market, the morning stainless steel plant cold rolling guide price flat, hot rolling price increased by 50 yuan / ton. SMM research, the downstream transaction situation is general, individual traders due to yesterday Lengni pull up, quoted price rose 50 yuan / ton, the actual transaction is still light. In Wuxi market, the price of state 304 2B rough edge roll is 14250 14300 yuan / ton, and the price of private 304 2B rough edge roll is 14000 14100 yuan / ton. Foshan market, the morning stainless steel plant cold rolling guidance price increased by 50 yuan / ton, hot rolling is generally flat. According to SMM research, the base price of Hongwang 304 / 2B rough edge market in Foshan today is 13700 yuan / ton, and the base price of Yongjin 304 / 2B rough edge market is 13800 yuan / ton, up 50 yuan / ton from yesterday. Lianzhong LH/2B market quotation 8050 8100 yuan / ton, the same as yesterday. The overall transaction situation of the market is general.

In terms of stocks: nickel stocks were 164000 tons on 12 June, an increase of 114 tons over 11 June.

Nickel price judgment: from the basic point of view, although the whole is short, but in the near future should be cautious operation. Shanghai nickel 1907 and 1909 contract back price difference has reached 1200 to 1300 yuan, short positions have closed out one after another, bulls occupy the upper hand, spot traders even if the high price transaction is not much also choose to wait and see. In addition, the recent large opening of the import window, bonded area goods more into the domestic, will be thrown to the market or intentionally hoarding goods to tie in with the squeeze is still unknown. Nickel prices are expected to close in the short term, and there is still a need to guard against the risk of overcrowding.

Nickel
minutes of internal morning meetings

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