Home / Metal News / Steel & Iron Ore / [SMM Black current Daily Review] do not listen to the sound of rain through the forest, why not shout and gradually replenish the inventory one by one!
[SMM Black current Daily Review] do not listen to the sound of rain through the forest, why not shout and gradually replenish the inventory one by one!
Jun 12,2019 17:39CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Current Review (12 June)

            

 

< 1 > spot aspect.

Today, the overall price of the steel market is stable and volatile, strong in the morning and weak in the afternoon, and the network celebrities are really green. Trading volume: generally weak. The price of billet in Tangshan area has dropped by 10 to 3500 yuan per ton. Market mentality: stable dominant.

    

 

Phase II steel.

Today's stock market, commodities, black system overall review.

       

RB1910 main contract:

 

During the day, there was a huge reduction in positions and tail positions to 110000 hands, with a fall in height between 3844 and 3772 and a final closing of 3776. The main organization within the day clearance single 34581 hands.

 

HC1910 main contract:

 

During the day, a small reduction in positions, tail reduction to 5198 hands, in the day between 3679 and 3615 high fall, the end of the harvest of 3620. The main organization has a net increase of 1578 hands per day.

 

Iron ore l1909 main contract:

 

During the day, there was a substantial increase in positions and tail positions to 43392 hands, with a strong shock between 778.5 and 761during the day, followed by a close of 764. during the day, there was a sharp increase in positions and a sharp increase in positions to 43392 hands. The main organization has a net increase of 17281 hands per day.

 

 

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:

 

Significantly reduced positions within the day, tail reduction to 21042 hands, in the day between 2210.5 and 2113 high fall, the end of the harvest of 2114.5. The main organization within the day clearance single 3803 hands.

 

Coking coal JM1909 main contract:

 

Significantly reduced positions within days, tail reduction to 38348 hands, in the day between 1438.5 and 1398 high fall, the end of the harvest of 1399. The main organization within the day clearance single 856 hands.

 

Forecast for tomorrow.

 

1. Spot: stable, early weak afternoon strong probability.

 

two。 Futures:

 

RB1910 main contract: between 3750 and 3820 concussion.

 

HC1910 main contract: between 3580 and 3680 concussion.

 

Iron ore l1909 main contract: 750 to 780 between shock.

 

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2070 and 2250 concussion.

 

Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1380 and 1420 concussion.

 

< 4 > suggestions for current operation.

1. On the spot side. Same as yesterday.

Practice the author's suggestion, complete the replenishment inventory operator: it is appropriate to enter the smooth rolling operation.

Those who have not implemented the author's suggestion: although it is too late to start replenishing inventory operation! But don't go up!

two。 Futures.

At the end of the material side.

In practice, the author suggests that more than a single gradual intervention, the general principle of position to be increased; with the ability to operate, can be high throwing low suction rolling operation.

Do not practice the author's advice: every time the return of multiple single intervention, do not chase up!

On the raw material side.

Iron ore L1909 contract: the position is waiting to rise, it is recommended to drop the bag around 800 for safety! Wait until you make a mistake.

Demon Jiao J1909 contract: wait for more than one order near the value before getting involved.

 

Friendly tip: not many single late enlightenment, wait for Thursday inventory data sunrise opportunity!

 

< 5 > Heart language and information.

1. Macroeconomic data transmission.

China's CPl in May was 2.7 per cent from a year earlier and is expected to be 2.7 per cent, compared with a previous value of 2.5 per cent.

The scale of social financing in China increased by 1.4 trillion yuan in May, with an estimated 1.41 trillion yuan, compared with a previous value of 13592 yuan.

China's broad money M2 in May was 8.5 per cent year-on-year, with an estimate of 8.6 per cent and a previous value of 8.5 per cent. Narrow money M1 is 3.4% year-on-year, with an expected value of 3.2% and a previous value of 2.9%. Cash in circulation M0 was 4.3% year-on-year, with an expected value of 3.5% and a previous value of 3.5%. Scissors shrink.

China added 1.18 trillion yuan in new yuan loans in May, with a forecast of 1.3 trillion yuan, up from a previous value of 1.02 trillion yuan.

two。 Net pass: a coke enterprise in Jincheng, Shanxi Province, cut the spot price of coke by 100 yuan per ton.

3. Zunhua Municipal Bureau of Development and Reform:

Notice on the suspension of power supply for the mineral processing of 86 iron ores in the city. The influence time is about 45 days.

4. The flow of iron ore to the port continued to decline, to about 3 million tons. It is difficult to find continuity for goods with high prices.

5. Focus on the sunrise of inventory data tomorrow.

6. Spot fall, cost up, two-way compression arc furnace profits look back today. In a word, the characteristics of the bottom of the spot are becoming clearer and clearer.

7. The weather affects demand only late, and when the weather cries, it is also the day to return from the need for revenge. Trend to build inventory, happy to see the success! Don't worry about gains and losses!

8. Inventory inflection point or not, spot, futures prices have fully reflected its expectations; waiting for tomorrow to fall out of the opportunity (especially the mine 1909 contract)!

 

The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. For details, see the outlook for the steel market in June and the weekly review on June 7.

 

 

Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781

 

(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)

 

 

 

Quotation
price forecast
daily review

For queries, please contact Frank LIU at liuxiaolei@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn

Related news