Home / Metal News / Steel & Iron Ore / [SMM Black Review] the road to the bottom has been completed and is ready to be carried out!
[SMM Black Review] the road to the bottom has been completed and is ready to be carried out!
Jun 11,2019 18:52CST
translation
Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

Current Review (11 June)

            

 

< 1 > spot aspect.

Today, steel market prices generally stopped falling and rebounded, with increases ranging from 10 to 60. Trading volume: OK. Tangshan area billet price cumulative upward 30 yuan to 3510 yuan / ton. Market mentality: stable and positive dominant.

    

 

Phase II steel.

Today's stock market, commodities, black is a feast.

       

RB1910 main contract:

 

When autumn comes on September 8 (3670), I bloom after a hundred flowers. The incense of the sky penetrated Changan, and the city was full of gold armour (3834).

 

After a huge increase of nearly 150000 positions in the day, a huge reduction in positions to 81010 hands, a strong rebound between 3712 and 3834 in the day, closing 3833. The main organization within the day clearance single 3518 hands.

 

HC1910 main contract:

 

Humiliation under the crotch (3529) General Han, the battle between Gaixia and Qiankun (3653).

 

During the day, there was a sharp increase and decrease in positions and tail positions to 12996 hands, with a strong rebound between 3560 and 3668 during the day, with a close of 3655 at the end of the day. The main organization within the day clearance single 8886 hands.

 

Iron ore l1909 main contract:

 

09, 01, 05 contracts are happy (seal the limit)!

 

Looking back at a smile 692.5 hundred beauties 760.5, six concubines are overshadowed one by one.

 

During the day, a huge increase in positions, tail positions to 160958 hands, in the day between 724.5 and 760.5 crazy, the end of the limit of 760.5. The main organization has a net increase of 28170 hands per day.

 

 

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:

 

Shidu Chishui 2066, after the three armed forces all open Yan 2213

 

During the day, there was a sharp decrease in positions and an increase in positions to 12496 hands, with a strong rebound between 2123 and 2213 during the day and a close of 2208.5 at the end of the day. The main organization has a net extra 245hands per day.

 

Coking coal JM1909 main contract:

 

Shorty goes to the theatre, accompanied by "Brother Jiao"!

 

During the day, there was a substantial increase in positions and tail positions to 31866 hands, with a strong rebound between 1404 and 1437.5 during the day, with a close of 1437 at the end of the day. The main organization has a net increase of 3211 hands per day.

 

Forecast for tomorrow.

 

1. Spot: concussion forward.

 

two。 Futures:

 

RB1910 main contract: between 3760 and 3850 concussion.

 

HC1910 main contract: between 3610 and 3680 concussion.

 

Iron ore l1909 main contract: 750 to 780 between shock.

 

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2180 and 2280 concussion.

 

Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1400 and 1450 concussion.

 

< 4 > suggestions for current operation.

1. On the spot side.

Practice the author's suggestion, complete the replenishment inventory operator: it is appropriate to enter the smooth rolling operation.

Those who have not implemented the author's suggestion: although it is too late to start replenishing inventory operation! But don't overdo it!

two。 Futures.

At the end of the material side.

In practice, the author suggests that more than a single gradual intervention, the general principle of position to be increased; with the ability to operate, can be high throwing low suction rolling operation.

Do not practice the author's advice: every time the return of multiple single intervention, do not chase up!

On the raw material side.

Iron ore L1909 contract, position to rise, it is recommended to drop the bag around 800 for safety! Wait until you make a mistake.

Demon Jiao J1909 contract, position to rise, it is recommended to drop the bag around 2280 for safety! Wait till you look back.

Friendly tip: not many single late enlightenment, wait for Thursday inventory data sunrise opportunity!

 

< 5 > Heart language and information.

1. The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council passed on: notice on doing a good job in the issuance of local government special bonds and supporting project financing, "see the SMM Nonferrous Network report for details.

The author prospective judgment research, the counter-periodic factor adjustment big probability speeds up on the road, now falls to the ground! Once again, help the infrastructure to make up for the shortcomings of the board!

two。 Unconfirmed news: Rio Tinto due to previous hurricanes, pb block quality problems, resulting in the next two months may not be able to complete the long term shipment. Today 09, 01, 05 iron ore contract rose limit, although the occurrence of the time with contingency, but as the author said, it must be inevitable to continue to move forward after looking back. There is necessity in chance!

3. Spot, yesterday I said: ten thousand years too long, seize the day! Late enlightenment, spot review probability depends on, do not overcatch up!

4. The current market dilemma: arc furnace capacity has not been reviewed, the necessary and sufficient conditions for spot to continue to rebound do not have, the author agrees with the short rhythm. However, as iron ore prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall, or even difficult to buy high-grade ore, it is bound to love scrap, in order to promote the cost of RB up. Today, scrap steel prices in most areas rose yesterday, the original two sides compressed arc furnace profits, now spot compression is weak, but the short rhythm disturbance is still there, stack the current situation of the long process, at least can be sure that capacity expansion is difficult to continue.

5. Spot iron ore prices rose yesterday, up 25 to 30 yuan per ton. Coke rose in the fourth round, steel enterprises are still high language birds not surprised! The game is in progress.

 

 

   

 

The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. For details, see the outlook for the steel market in June and the weekly review on June 7.

 

Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781

 

(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)

 

 

Quotation
price forecast
daily review

For queries, please contact Frank LIU at liuxiaolei@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn

Related news