[forecast of Shagang]

SMM forecast: it is estimated that the ex-factory price of Shagang in mid-May is 150 to 200, that is, the third-grade big screw (ex-factory price 4250), the Kuti cost in East China is 4200 and the plant cost is 4150.

Fundamental analysis:

On the supply side: on the one hand, according to SMM research, from June 11 to 22, some production equipment (1 φ 5.5bar) in Shagang was overhauled, but it had little impact on the output of thread steel with conventional specifications. Therefore, the planned screw thread volume of Shagang in June is still fully discounted-the supply is maintained at a high level.

Demand: at present, the toughness of demand for building materials is still there, but due to the concentration of flood season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in June, rigid demand is weakened by seasonal interference.

In the case of high supply, building materials inventory pattern may change, according to SMM data statistics, as of June 10, Hangzhou thread inventory reached 441000 tons, has begun to enter the storage state. In this case, the current business sales are generally hanging upside down, so the ex-factory price of this ten-day Shagang has been slightly reduced by 30 to 50 yuan / ton, and it is reasonable to make up for the reasonable difference in the last period of resources. However, we do not rule out the probability that steel mills will continue to push up their prices, mainly due to: on the one hand, the market spot price has fallen by 218.5 yuan per ton since its high level, and traders have reported that local prices have fallen to a low level at present. Under the progress of technology, the construction progress of the site is affected by the weather, the wait-and-see mood of the terminal purchase is weakened, and the actual shipping condition is better than that in the first ten days. On the other hand, the profit of the steel plant shrank (according to the statistical model of SMM data, the average profit of the long process steel plant in May was 642yuan / ton, and the average profit in the first ten days of June was only 431yuan / ton), but the output did not decrease, and under the condition of little pressure on the social database of the steel plant, The steel mill may be ten years old again. Stay on the sidelines.

Compensation: according to research, as of June 10, Hangzhou Shagang resources quoted 3980 to 3990 yuan / ton, businesses reported an actual loss of 180 to 200 yuan / ton. According to SMM steel data, the average selling price of Shagang resources in Hangzhou this day is 4020 yuan / ton, and the loss per ton of steel is 180. it is estimated that the steel plant will make up for the difference by 150 to 200 yuan.

In terms of cost: according to the SMM iron and steel data model, the thread cost of the long process steel plant is 3512 (excluding financial cost), and the thread profit is 388 yuan / ton.

Delivery ratio: Shagang full discount on the planned amount of thread in June, planned quantity in mid-June, 20% discount on thread (10% discount on the previous period), 10% discount on wire rod and screw (10% discount on the previous period); Yonggang planned quantity in mid-June, 30% discount on screw thread (30% discount on previous period), 9.5% discount on wire rod and coil (10% discount on previous period).