[SMM Black Futures Daily Review] 20190610: there is another variable on the supply side, and the ore is violently pulled up.

In terms of volume and price, RB1910 closed down 10 yuan / ton from the previous trading day to close at 3717 yuan / ton, while HC1910 closed down 21 yuan / ton to 3576 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. I1909 closed 17 yuan higher at 729.5 yuan per ton than the previous day, while J1909 closed down 20 yuan per ton at 2126.5 yuan per ton. In terms of position data, the number of RB1910 transactions increased by 114000 to 2.71 million, while that of I1909 increased by 1.4 million and increased by 67700 to 1.52 million. In terms of capital flows, the net inflow of funds from RB1910 today was 296 million yuan. I1909 net inflow of capital was 667 million yuan. Viewpoint: the concussion is strong. Today is the first trading day after the Dragon Boat Festival, thread shows a bottom after the recovery of the v-shaped trend, the daily line and then close the cross star, showing that the current multi-empty game is fierce. Judging from the industrial data, there are signs of loosening at the supply side in the near future. In the week of June 7, the output of rebar decreased by 0.8% compared with that of last week, and decreased for the second week in a row. The operating rate of blast furnace also dropped for the first time in nearly a month, reflecting that after the sharp decline in the market, the resource prices of some small factories have fallen near the cost line of electric arc furnaces, choosing to reduce production, so that the pressure on the supply side has been alleviated. There is a certain degree of support for the price. During the Dragon Boat Festival, foreign media announced that Vale will spend US $1.9 billion to close nine tailings dams in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, two of which will be completed within three years and five will be converted into downstream dams. The other two will increase the safety factor before shutdown. As a result, iron ore rose rapidly in the afternoon, rising 2.4 per cent a day. At present, the short-term ore supply is difficult to make up for effectively, iron ore prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall. Coking coal is affected by the mine accident occurred in Shanxi Pingshan Coal Mine and Chongqing Tianhong Salt well No. 1 Mine, and its performance is also relatively strong. Although the accident itself does not affect the output much, the strength and scope of security inspection in the later period may have a trend of further strictness. Although coke is not as strong as coking coal today, it is difficult to continue to fall against the background of strict policy. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3650, 3850); I1909 contract range (680780), gradual layout of multiple orders on the low side. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.