According to the latest research of SMM Iron and Steel, the total planned output of hot rolled sample mainstream steel mills in June 2019 is 9.4076 million tons, which is-3% higher than the actual output of 9.7293 million tons in May, and the planned export volume is 598000 tons,-12.7% month-on-month. The domestic investment volume was 8.8096 million tons, with a month-to-month ratio of + 4.8 per cent. The overall data show that:
1. Although there has been a slight decline in supply this month, the total amount has remained at a relatively high level. And due to the short production cycle this month, the actual production days have been reduced, so a small decline is at a reasonable level.
2. Exports have fallen sharply this month, and domestic investment has increased. Mainly due to: (1) the foreign trade price dragged down by the domestic trade price led to the widening of the domestic and foreign trade price difference, and the foreign trade profit shrank (according to statistics, today's FOB quotation is 493 yuan / ton, that is, RMB 3547 yuan / ton). Compared with today's domestic trade price of 3855 yuan / ton, foreign trade is not attractive to steel mills relative to the profit level of domestic trade. (2) with the escalation of trade disputes between China and the United States, the international trade situation is becoming more and more serious, which leads to the suppression of steel export trade and the reduction of steel mills' foreign trade orders.
Overall, in the case of a reduction in foreign trade and an increase in domestic trade, coupled with the implementation of the cooling and heat transfer plan of some steel mills, will lead to an increase in the supply of hot coil. Therefore, it is expected that domestic spot prices will still be under pressure.
In the northern region, the planned commodity volume of hot rolled coil is 4.8806 million tons, with a month-on-month ratio of + 11.6%, and the planned export volume is 222000 tons, a decrease of 68000 tons compared with the previous month.
The planned commodity volume of hot rolled coil in East China is 2.807 million tons,-9.4% compared with the previous month, and the export plan is 336000 tons, a decrease of 29700 tons compared with the previous month.
The planned commodity volume of hot rolled coil in Central and South China is a total of 1.315 million tons, with a month-on-month ratio of + 2.3%, and an export of 40, 000 tons, which is the same as the month-on-month ratio.
The planned commodity volume of hot rolled coil in the western region is a total of 405000 tons, with a month-to-month ratio of + 16.4%. [SMM Steel]