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[SMM Black Review] the end of the song is still small, for the price has not been achieved.
Jun 5,2019 18:02CST
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Source:SMM
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Current Review (5 June)

            

 

< 1 > spot aspect.

Today, steel market prices generally stabilized and rebounded slightly, and some areas fell back slightly in the afternoon. Trading volume: general. Tangshan area billet prices up 10 yuan to 3550 yuan / ton. Market mentality: stable dominant.

    

 

Phase II steel. The stock market and commodities are light green. Black is a strong shock as a whole.

       

RB1910 main contract:

 

During the day, there was a substantial increase or decrease in positions and tail positions to 11202 hands, with a strong earthquake between 3726 and 3758 and a final closing of 3747. The main organization has a net increase of 3504 hands per day.

 

HC1910 main contract:

 

During the day, there was a slight decrease in positions and an increase in positions to 3742 hands, with a strong concussion between 3578 and 3622 during the day, with a final closing of 3607. The main organization within the day clearance single 2641 hands.

 

Iron ore l1909 main contract:

 

During the day, the number of positions increased or decreased, and the number of positions increased to 1870. During the day, there was a strong shock between 712and 724.5, with a final closing of 719.5. The main organization within the day clearance single 17987 hands.

 

 

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:

 

During the day, there was a sharp increase in positions and a reduction in positions to 10362 hands, fluctuating between 2095 and 2127 during the day and closing at 2114.5. The main organization within the day clearance single 2059 hands.

 

Coking coal JM1909 main contract:

 

During the day, there was a slight decrease in positions and an increase in positions to 7640 hands, with a slight concussion between 1372.5 and 1383 during the day and a final closing of 1378. The main organization has a net increase of 1481 hands per day.

 

Forecast for tomorrow.

 

1. Spot: stability is the main aspect.

 

two。 Futures:

 

RB1910 main contract: between 3710 and 3780 concussion.

 

HC1910 main contract: between 3580 and 3670 concussion.

 

Iron ore l1909 main contract: between 710 and 735 concussion.

 

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2100 and 2150 concussion.

 

Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1360 and 1410 concussion.

 

< 4 > suggestions for current operation. See Weekly Review for details (June 1). )

 

< 5 > Heart language and information.

In May, the PMl52.7%, of Caixin China's service sector fell from April to 1.8Pb.

two。 Fed Chairman Powell's speech hinted at a rate cut.

3. On the raw material side.

Coke: Port spot price is stable as a whole, only Tianjin Port quasi-first-class 2200 yuan / ton (including tax), down 50 yuan / ton. Some coke enterprises in Shanxi rose by 100 yuan / ton in the fourth round, and a steel enterprise in Tangshan asked for a reduction of 100 yuan / ton, angry at incandescence; the spot of coke discount water was about 130 yuan / ton.

Iron ore: spot fundamentals are safe, port import prices are stable and rising, traders cherish the price. The mine water is about 102 yuan / ton.

4. After the recent price decline, demand toughness full superposition of pre-festival replenishment, yesterday and today spot prices stabilized.

It is suggested that we should keep the mentality of "picking wild flowers by the fence and inadvertently seeing Nanshan". Specific operational recommendations remain unchanged, details of which can be found in the weekly review.

5. Focus on tomorrow afternoon inventory data sunrise on the current disturbance. If you fall sharply, you will be happy to see it come true.

With yesterday's heart words and information.

1. Yangquan transmission: gas explosion occurred in a coal mine in Yangquan, Shanxi Province, resulting in 2 deaths and 9 injuries.

two。 The price of coke in the non-main coke area increased in the fourth round. Steel enterprise: the high language bird is not surprised.

3. Spot prices fell to this, some arc furnace steel enterprises gross profits close to the break-even line; steel enterprises normal maintenance "make-up lessons" is increasing.

4. The decline in iron ore inventory data has converged, and the futures mine has fully countered expectations. High demand, high discount, supply-side convergence superposition the author predicts the probability of profit of steel enterprises to expand again in August. The mine is still looking forward to, on the low Buduo although late still late, do not dance with the wall school.

5. The author concludes that the bi-directional compression of gross profit of arc furnace steel is being deduced. no, no. The inventory of scrap resources in some electric arc furnace steel enterprises is low, and the current price is stable, but it is difficult to purchase. Iron ore spot so, although the price fell by 2 to 15 yesterday, but traders are not willing to ship.

With yesterday's heart words and information.

1. Tangshan area billet short rhythm rise and fall are not easy: the rise is subject to billet rolling no profit, falling cost strong support.

two。 Recently, the environmental protection situation of coke enterprises in Shanxi is grim.

3. The escalation of Sino-US trade frictions and the acceleration of the adjustment of counter-cyclical factors are high probability events!

 

The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. For details, see the outlook for the steel market in June and the weekly review on June 1.

 

 

Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781

 

(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)

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