201904 12: the output reached a new high in the year, and the thread height fell back in the night market.

Volume and price: today's black commodity trend continues to show differentiation, thread, hot coil, ore near strong and far weak, bifocal countertrend strong. Specifically, compared with yesterday's close, RB1910 fell 14 yuan / ton to close at 3794 yuan / ton; HC1910 fell 10 yuan / ton to close at 3693 yuan / ton; I1909 closed down 1 yuan / ton from yesterday's close to close at 653.5 yuan / ton. J1909 rose 19 yuan per ton from yesterday to close at 2031 yuan per ton. In terms of position data, the number of RB1910 transactions decreased by 36200 to 2.24 million, while that of I1909 by 2.96 million, with a decrease of 9110 to 1.2 million. In terms of capital flows, the net outflow of funds from RB1910 today was 135 million yuan. I1909 net outflow of funds was $57.31 million. Viewpoint: the concussion is strong. RB1910 night trading was briefly horizontal after the capital sell-off, fell sharply, and then concussion upward, as of the close, recover most of the day's decline; I1909 out of the W bottom form, the short-term trend is strong. Today, data released by the people's Bank of China showed that China added 1.69 trillion yuan in new renminbi loans in March, higher than expected, rising from the previous value, while the increase in social and financial scale for the month was 2.86 trillion, exceeding expectations and rebounding sharply from the previous value. In March 2019, China exported 6.327 million tons of steel, an increase of 181.5 tons over the previous month, an increase of 12.0 percent over the same period last year, indicating an improvement in external demand. In terms of domestic demand, the production and sales of passenger vehicles completed 2.09 million and 2.019 million vehicles respectively in March, an increase of 83. 3% and 65. 6% respectively over the previous month, and there were also some signs of recovery. Judging from the trading volume of building materials across the country, the average trading volume reached 235000 tons in the first four days of the week, an increase of 0.3 percent over the average last week, indicating that demand is still resilient. At present, the factors restricting the rise in prices are mainly due to the high output and the stimulus of increased profits to the release of supply. In the short term, prices are still supported, but the risks are rising. The departure of the profit market in the early period may cause a large fluctuation of the disk at any time, and the risk should be strictly controlled at the same time in accordance with the trend. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3700, 3900); I1909 contract range (610680). Multiple single continue to hold, arbitrage focus on thread 10 # 01 positive sleeve. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy. [SMM Steel]