20190410: both supply and demand are booming, and the shock of mature wood is on the strong side.

Volume and price: today's black commodity trend is mixed, thread, hot coil, ore rose, bifocal continued to fall. Specifically, RB1910 rose 17 yuan / ton from yesterday's close to close at 3774 yuan / ton; HC1910 rose 9 yuan / ton from yesterday to close at 3690 yuan / ton; I1909 rose 3 yuan / ton from yesterday's close to close at 651yuan / ton. J1909 fell 27. 5 yuan per ton from yesterday to close at 2017.5 yuan per ton. In terms of position data, the number of RB1910 transactions increased by 39600 to 2.18 million, while that of I1909 increased by 1.68 million and increased by 110000 to 1.13 million. In terms of capital flows, the net inflow of funds from RB1910 today was 149 million yuan. I1909 net outflow of funds was $599 million. Point of view: be careful to be bullish. RB1910 most of the time in the (3736, 3765) interval concussion operation, afternoon concussion upward, closing up 17 yuan / ton compared to yesterday; RB1909 is also shown as the first shock and then pull up, the trend is slightly weaker than the rebar. At present, the disk in the impact of the 3800 level failed to fall back after the adjustment, in 3730 has been strong support, re-choose up, at present, the RB1910 bulls trend has not seen signs of deterioration, is still treated as a bullish train of thought. From a fundamental point of view, this week is still showing an increase in production, inventory reduction of both supply and demand situation, at the same time, the increase in production is not as good as demand, there is still a certain degree of support; On the ore side, the Australian hurricane affected port closure has ended, shipping volume has increased, but Brazil remains reduced, the reduction is expected to gradually appear in the second quarter, the ore trend is still expected to run more. The current risk points are the persistence of demand, the fear of high sentiment in the market, and the narrowing of the base, so as to adapt to the trend and control the risk at the same time. Strategy: RB1910 contract range (3630, 3850); I1909 contract range (610680). Most of the activists continue to hold, the sound ones only wait and see, and arbitrage pays attention to the thread 10-01 positive sleeve. The active ones continue to hold, the steady ones only wait and see, and the arbitrage pays close attention to the thread 10-01. Disclaimer: this information comes from a statistical arbitrage model based on historical data, and all conclusions are based on reliable and publicly available information. The SMM quantification team is not responsible for any losses that may be caused by all information. We recommend that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies. Investors are also encouraged to seek advice from professional financial advisers. This information does not provide a tailored investment strategy.