The price of steel is already high, be careful to be scalded!

Current Review (8 April)

Spot: this period is now resonance, steel mills up and down. Steel market prices have rebounded sharply, with increases ranging from 50 to 100. In terms of trading volume, it is hot. Tangshan billet holiday rose 20 yuan, today up 40, up 60 yuan to 3510 yuan / ton. Market mentality: stability and caution.

Futures: today's stock market rose and fell back, green closing. The goods are still all over the mountain red, black department, carnival.

RB1905 contract:

It takes 4038 to see Changan every day.

During the day, the position continued to be significantly reduced, with a tail reduction of 750.5 million hands, a strong rebound between 3908 and 4038 during the day, and a close of 4030. The main organization within the day clearance single 746 hands.

RB1910 main contract:

During the day, there was a huge increase in positions, once more than 120000 hands, followed by a final increase of 46264 hands, running between 3613 and 3755 during the day, closing at 3730. The main organization has a net increase of 87306 hands per day.

HC1905 contract:

During the day, there was a sharp reduction in positions and tail positions to 24696 hands, with a strong rebound between 3855 and 3962 during the day and a close of 3944. The main organization within the day clearance single 10223 hands.

HC1910 main contract:

During the day, a small increase in positions, tail to 12418 hands, in the day between 3582 and 3687 strong rebound, closing 3668. The main organization within the day clearance single 5457 hands.

Iron ore l1905 contract:

Dream come true 700 big price.

During the day, there was a sharp reduction in positions and tail positions to 37496 hands, and there was a strong rebound between 685 and 715. the closing date was 712. during the day, there was a strong rebound between 685 and 715. it closed at the end of the day. Within the day, the main organization clearance list 4194 hands.

Iron ore l1909 main contract:

During the day, there was a sharp increase in positions to 120166 hands, with a strong rebound between 629 and 658.5 and a close of 653.5. The main organization has a net increase of 15409 hands per day.

Demon Jiao J1905 contract:

During the day, significantly reduced positions, tail reduced to 21504 hands, in the day between 2022.5 and 2055 concussion rebound, closing 2048.5. The main organization has a net increase of 1099 hands per day.

Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:

Coking coal JM1905 main contract:

During the day, a small increase in positions, tail to 2808 hands, in the day between 1244.5 to 1260.5 shock rebound, closing 1258.5. The main organization has a net increase of 674 hands per day.

Forecast for tomorrow

Mature end: more single high profit departure, the trend of empty single every high gradually involved (control the position can be).

Raw material end:

Iron ore: within the range, every low cloth more, fast in and out.

Coke: the far moon is dominated by low cloth.

< 5 > Information and heart language.

1. The National Development and Reform Commission passed on: the restrictions on the settlement of cities with a population of 1 million to 3 million people will be lifted, and the urbanization rate will be increased by more than 1 per cent.

2. The port of shipment of iron ore from Rio Tinto was forced to be closed because of a fire in the port of Dampier. The news of the mine accident does not stop, pay attention.

3. This round of spot prices have rebounded so far more than 300 points, falling in the author's forward-looking forecast of the first round of rebound target range of 300 + 50. The term steel has exceeded the range of 3900 + 100 in the author's forward-looking forecast. At present, the gross profit of blast furnace has reached 800 yuan / ton, and the gross profit of steel per ton of electric arc furnace has reached about 300 yuan / ton. The capacity release of short-rhythm electric arc furnace has been universal, and accelerated on the road, the pressure of steel price in the middle and late days is a high probability event. The overall rebound height is extremely limited, late enlightenment to chase high, take it easy.

Note: the revision of the monthly evaluation range is the target value of 600 + 50 for the forecast major trend rebound in December 2018, revised to 500 + 50.

< VI > Rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. For details, see monthly Review (April 5) and "Review and Prospect of Steel Market".

Consult consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781