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2018 lead and zinc cattle hoof stall end 2019 macro, supply and demand side can help reverse
Mar 11,2019 14:30CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM2, 22 March: the macro-economy in 2018 is unpredictable, political accidents occur frequently, commodity trends are also affected, and the lead and zinc prices rise and fall. Throughout 2018, lead prices run from 17280 to 20810 yuan per ton, with a trend similar to that in 2017. However, the main rising wave market in April to June, lasted only 2 months, far less than 2017 as long as 5 months of "mad cow" market. It can be said that the lead price trend in 2018 is basically in line with the expectations of the industry.

For the zinc market, domestic and foreign zinc prices hit their highest levels since August 2008, climbing to 27235 yuan per ton and $3595.5 per ton, respectively. However, in the second half of the year, zinc processing fees at home and abroad are obviously upward, and the market is expected to strengthen the recovery of global zinc mine supply. At the same time, downstream demand continues to be weak, coupled with the continued heating up of trade disputes between China and the United States, under the strong pattern of the dollar index, pessimistic expectations of goods have significantly suppressed zinc prices, zinc prices bid farewell to the upward trend for two consecutive years and entered the downward channel.

In 2019, consumption, environmental protection, the new national standard, lithium battery replacement, and so on have become the focus of the market. In the first week after the return of the Spring Festival, the US Index rose continuously, returning to US $97. At the same time, under the joint action of lower and higher LME lead stocks, The London lead probe fell 2.2 per cent a week near its 40-day moving average, while the Shanghai lead 1903 contract tumbled 2.91 per cent on the back of a decline in external trading and an increase in inventories during the Lunar New year holiday. On the first working day back after the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Zinc main 1903 contract plummeted 785yuan / ton on a single day, a drop of 3.51 per cent.

As the Sino-US trade negotiations enter the seventh round of negotiations, there is an urgent need to clarify the trend of the lead and zinc market. Shanghai Nonferrous Network held the 2019 (14th) Shanghai lead and Zinc Summit in Chenzhou, Hunan Province from 2 to 3 April. Chenzhou is a famous hometown of non-ferrous metals in the world. Mineral resources are extremely rich. SMM gathered the lead and zinc industry market personages, specially invited the industry big shot, held the wonderful industry grand meeting, even though the lead and zinc market change trend.

What are the hot topics at the lead-Zinc Summit?

In 2018, the supply of lead concentrate remained tight, but in the face of tight supply of domestic mines, processing fees have been rising. SMM believes that the main reasons for the increase in domestic lead concentrate processing fees are:

First, during the production season of lead concentrate, the primary lead refineries are centrally overhauled, coupled with the unabated efforts of the central and local governments in environmental protection inspection during the year, the production of refineries is limited in stages, and the demand for mines has been reduced. So that refineries have more say in the negotiation of processing fees;

Second, the Shanghai-London ratio continued to improve during the year, the profit of imported lead concentrate was considerable, and the selection range of smelters was expanded, which led to the fact that domestic mining enterprises had to seize the market by raising processing fees. Third, with the increasingly tight supply of lead concentrate, the proportion of primary lead refineries using lead waste instead of lead concentrate has increased, which has reduced the dependence on lead concentrate to a certain extent.

The supply of domestic lead concentrate continues to be tight, and the processing fee of lead concentrate rebounded in 2018. Is it import supplement or domestic waste replacement? Can the tight supply pattern be improved in 2019?

The overall output of recycled lead is still increasing in 2018. This is mainly due to the continuous promotion of the process of industrial structure optimization of domestic recycled lead and the pressure of environmental protection supervision, which makes the domestic "three no" recycled lead refineries survive in the cracks. The continuous reduction of non-licensed enterprises has brought some gaps in the supply of recycled lead and more sources of raw materials to licensed enterprises, and the new expansion plan of recycled lead in licensed enterprises has increased, thus promoting the overall production of recycled lead. With the continuous promotion of the process of industrial structure optimization and the pressure of environmental protection supervision, it is a major trend for recycled lead to replace primary lead in the future.

With the promotion of environmental protection and various policies, primary lead and lead battery enterprises have been involved in the recycled lead industry one after another. How will the waste battery recovery system change in the future?

In 2018, the traditional electric bicycle (lead-acid battery) industry, on the one hand, is facing the pressure of lithium electric bicycle replacement, on the other hand, the landing of the new national standard of electric bicycle brings the battery "lightweight" and the impact of accelerating the use of lithium electricity. At the same time, various localities issued regulations on the management of non-motor vehicles, such as the Beijing regulations on the Administration of non-Motor vehicles, to promote the replacement of over-standard electric bicycles in the market, which also stimulated the demand for replacement of electric bicycles to a certain extent.

The new national standard of electric bicycle in 2018 is on the ground and will be implemented on April 15, 2019. It is urgent to "lighten" the battery. Where will lead consumption go in the future?

According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the total amount of coated plates from January to October 2018 was 44.69 million tons, which was adjusted by SMM, down 2.8 percent from the same period last year. In terms of sub-items, infrastructure investment increased by 19% in 2017 compared with the same period last year, but by October 2018, the cumulative infrastructure investment had shrunk to 3.7%, which was a significant drag on zinc consumption. From January to October, the automobile output was 22.787 million, an increase of only 0.78% over the same period last year, and the demand for automobile plate was further lower than that in 2017. However, from January to October, new housing construction area of 16.88 trillion square meters, an increase of 16.3% from a year earlier, the performance is more eye-catching, but overall, the performance of galvanized sheet is relatively weak. In 2019, the war of trade between China and the United States was everywhere, and the downward pressure on the economy increased. Where will zinc consumption go?

Many of the above market concerns will be resolved at the 2019 (14th) Shanghai lead and Zinc Summit. At that time, the senior lead and zinc analysts of SMM will carry the "secret weapon" developed by SMM for many years, "SMM exclusive data and exclusive Research Information report," to interpret the current situation and future development trend of lead and zinc market on the spot. There are also a number of experts and scholars for everyone to interpret the lead and zinc market. "learn more about the lead and Zinc Summit

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