[SMM analysis] what is the impact of the second production line of Qingshan stainless Steel Electrolytic Manganese Plant in Indonesia on the domestic manganese market?

SMM February 19: according to the official news of the enterprise, February 13, Indonesia Qingshan stainless Steel Co., Ltd. (ITSS) Electrolytic Manganese Plant the second production line started smoothly. Taking into account the first production line in production, the electrolytic manganese plant in Qingshan, Indonesia, has opened a total of 2 lines, each with a daily output of 45 tons of electrolytic manganese. And the third production line is already planned.

Indonesia's Qingshan stainless Steel Co., Ltd. (ITSS) is located in the Castle Peak Industrial Park on Sulawesi Island. By June 2018, its third 1 million ton stainless steel steelmaking project had been put into production, with a local stainless steel smelting capacity of 3 million tons. According to SMM, the actual average monthly output is about 200000 tons, all of which are 300 series stainless steel. If converted according to the coefficient of 1 to 1.5 percent manganese content, the demand for electrolytic manganese is expected to reach 2000 to 3000 tons at most.

According to a comprehensive calculation, after all the electrolytic manganese plants in Qingshan, Indonesia have been put into operation, their electrolytic manganese consumption can basically be self-sufficient, and there will be no obvious surplus. In the long run, Indonesia Qingshan Electrolytic Manganese Plant can reach the level of domestic medium-sized manganese plant, which has little impact on the pattern of domestic manganese market, but China's electrolytic manganese export to Indonesia may decrease significantly in the later period.

Customs data show that from January to December 2018, China exported 19586 tons of electrolytic manganese to Indonesia, an increase of 67 percent over 2017, and classified as unforged manganese, indicating that all Indonesian demand for manganese comes from stainless steel plants.