SMM1, March 15: this round of interest rate increases in the United States has lasted more than three years, raising interest rates nine times, and the current federal funds rate range is 2.25% to 2.5%.

Japan has been stable at negative interest rates all the year round, the low interest rate policy has remained unchanged for 20 years, and there is no prospect of Japan's withdrawal from the QE.

China faces a complex economic environment at home and abroad, interest rate cuts are still expected, and it is almost impossible to raise interest rates. In this way, the United States pulled out of QE, ahead of the world and received a huge dividend from this round of monetary policy: the return of dollars from all over the world pushed up the US stock market, the US housing market, and the US economy flourished under the guidance of Trump's tax cuts. At one point, GDP growth was 4.2%, and the unemployment rate was 3.7%, the lowest in more than 40 years. At that time, the market was full of expectations for the future of the dollar and the US economy. Fed officials were full of hawkish remarks. In the second half of 2018, The US economy gradually returned to rationality, and the market began to doubt the unsustainability of the US economy. Especially after October, the crude oil market suddenly changed and fell sharply. At the same time, the volatility of the US stock market intensified and plummeted one after another. After a sharp correction in the US manufacturing index and consumer confidence index, Fed officials began to be cautious about raising interest rates, turning pigeon, and then some financial institutions, top investment banks, and analysts began to warn against a downturn in the US economy in 2019. As of December, some of the key indicators in the United States are still in recession, and the federal government is shutting down indefinitely, with 800000 government officials shutting down at home.

The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates near the end, Goldman Sachs has been optimistic about the U. S. economy, but also had to bow in the face of reality. According to the latest economic research report released by Goldman Sachs on December 29, Goldman Sachs has cut its GDP forecast for the first half of 2019 to 2 per cent from 2.4 per cent and the Fed's forecast for raising interest rates to 1.2 times. Similarly, the World Bank cut US economic growth from 2.9 per cent in 2018 to 2.5 per cent in 2019, or even 1.7 per cent in 2020, and yields on 10-year US Treasuries, which have been unpopular since 2018, have plummeted in recent months. At the same time, the phenomenon of interest rate upside down has always been worthy of special attention.

Ren Zeping, a prominent Chinese economist, said in an article a few days ago that the US economy is peaking, Trump's tax cuts are diminishing, and the global economy will peak and fall back in 2019. According to Zhou Jintao, the king of the cycle a few years ago, 2019 will be the ultimate low in asset prices and an important opportunity in life, the last of which was in 2008. Buffett said that fear in greed, greed in fear, 2019 is a challenging year, but also a year full of opportunities.