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Important events of the week: financial reports, production data and oil prices will shape the trend of metals
Jan 14,2019 17:49CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM1 14: according to Bloomberg, so far, commodity prices have risen sharply in 2019, and this week's events will help investors determine whether the rally is sustainable. On the oil side, OPEC (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (International Energy Agency) give prospects, while in China, the country's energy giants issue annual reviews. The move follows tough comments over the weekend by Khalid Al-Falih, Saudi energy minister, promising to take further action to rebalance global markets if necessary.

In London and New York, oil prices recovered their losses and returned to the bull market. This week, traders will receive the best guidance on the sustainability of the recovery. The main regulators of the global crude oil market will release their first outlook for the year on Tuesday, starting with the U.S. Energy Information Agency (eia), followed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (opec) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). In addition, they will also focus on whether China's economic slowdown will lead to a decline in oil demand.

In addition to the above data, CNPC will release its annual forecast for the trend of global crude oil prices on Wednesday. The incident has become the Chinese version of BP (BP Plc) 's acclaimed World Energy Statistics Review (Statistical Review of World Energy). This year's focus will be on how China can increase its domestic crude oil production to reduce its dependence on imports and how to avoid a natural gas crunch.

Raw materials

During the three months under review, raw material prices experienced a period of extreme volatility, crude oil prices fell sharply, natural gas prices fluctuated like a roller coaster, and gold prices continued to rise. These initiatives offer a large number of opportunities, but there are also a large number of risks. Other banks also submitted data, released by JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday and Morgan Stanley on Thursday.

Difficult times

Even Alcoa's impressive third-quarter results and share buyback statements are not enough to protect the company from the bleak global growth outlook. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the largest US aluminium producer reported its worst quarterly loss in seven years as prices plummeted. On Wednesday, the Pittsburgh-based company will report fourth-quarter earnings and is expected to update its outlook for the aluminum market. So far this year, as the market expects that once the United States removes the (United Co. of United Aluminum of Russia, Rusal) sanctions, there will be more aluminum supply to the market, aluminum prices have fallen.

China's field of vision

(Rio Tinto Group), the world's second-largest mining group, will release 2018 production data on Friday, offering new insights into the impact of China's slowing economy on demand for raw materials. London-based Rio (Rio), which earns about 44 per cent of its revenue from China, is expected to have stronger annual figures, including a record 340 million tonnes of iron ore shipments.

In November, Rio approved a $2.6 billion project to maintain existing productivity to build iron ore in Australia, a clear sign that the producer expects demand for steelmaking materials to continue to grow. Jean-Sebastian Jacques, chief executive, said in October that even if the mainland economy cooled, orders from China would still be abundant.

Bull market and bear market

After the biggest monthly rise in gold prices in nearly two years, traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are optimistic that the feast is not over. Against a backdrop of a weaker dollar and a bleak outlook for global growth, the low hit by (Comex) in August has risen more than 10 per cent. More than half of respondents were optimistic for the ninth week in a row, the longest since 2015.

On agriculture, 59 per cent of traders and analysts were bullish on corn, the highest in five weeks, on expectations that easing trade tensions between China and the US could spur more US grain shipments to China. Market sentiment also takes a positive view of wheat. On the oil side, more than half of respondents were optimistic about the outlook, and Brent crude oil futures prices returned to the bull market.

(translated from Bloomberg)

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