[market voice] China's data overall weak metal market more look at the weak aftermarket

SMM, Dec. 14: this morning, the National Bureau of Statistics released a series of important macroeconomic data for November, including industrial value added, retail sales of consumer goods, fixed investment in cities and towns, and so on. Among them, the overall data is not as good as the previous value, and the market interpretation is empty. China's stock market and foreign exchange market both fell today, while the basic metals market fell across the board with the exception of aluminum. In response to such data, most market participants are still not optimistic about the trend of metals before the Spring Festival. By Friday afternoon, most of the non-ferrous internal trading was down, with Shanghai copper down 0.61%, Shanghai aluminum down 0.4%, Shanghai zinc down 1.45%, Shanghai lead down 0.57%, and Shanghai nickel and tin rising slightly. As of 5 p.m., LME overall turned green, LME zinc fell 2.06% led by the colored plate.

Everbright Futures Metal Research Director / Xu Mili: the November economic data as a whole continued the weak trend of 2018. In the future, as the peak of real estate purchases recedes, the decline in corporate profit growth will be transmitted to production and investment. Real estate investment and industrial value added will continue to decline steadily. The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee stressed boosting confidence. On this basis, we believe that future policies will focus more on stabilizing the economy and restoring confidence. On the one hand, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will pick up compared with this year. On the other hand, there will be measures to boost the enthusiasm of private enterprises. As for the impact of the capital market, in view of the fact that it takes time for the policy to be implemented until the effect appears, the stock market will continue the trend of concussion and grinding for a period of time. In terms of commodity markets, most of the current commodity prices are at high levels in recent years. Due to the weakening of supply-side reform, the further growth of terminal commodity demand is under pressure, and commodity prices may fall back from their high levels.

Vice General Manager of CUHK Futures / Jingchuan: weak data is expected in the market, the market has been included in the price, the impact of the release of the data is mainly in the psychological level and further pessimism about the future.

Soochow Futures analyst / Zhang Huawei: today's data are generally on the short side, basically lower than the previous value. Solid investment data in the stable growth, the market is expected to increase infrastructure investment, the recovery is also very limited. The bearish situation was reflected on the night of the meeting this morning, and the spirit of the market interpretation meeting after the announcement of yesterday's Politburo meeting showed policy determination and did not show the tone of the need for more positive changes in policy. The current data is not good, the future does not see that the policy will be further relaxed tone, the metal market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival.

Macro interpretation

China's industrial production above scale in November was 5.4 per cent year-on-year, below expectations and 5.9 per cent of the previous value. China's industrial value added above the scale of January to November (so far this year) was 6.3 per cent year-on-year, also below expectations and 6.4 per cent of the previous value. China's industrial and consumption growth slowed in November, with only fixed asset and real estate investment growing at the same level.

Among them, non-ferrous metal smelting and Calendering industries increased by 12.8 per cent, and ten non-ferrous metals by 4.71 million tons, an increase of 12.7 per cent.

Haitong macro Jiang Chao, Yu Bo: the industry creates a new low, the risk of deflation heats up. Industrial production hit its lowest level since March 2016 in November. Dragged down by weak demand and falling profits, industrial production has taken a turn for the worse again, and the accelerated decline in PPI growth in November confirms that the industry is still in a weak pattern of supply and demand.

From this point of view, in the 17 major industries, the upstream and downstream growth rate rises less and falls more, the middle reaches rises more and falls less, among which special equipment, transportation equipment and non-ferrous metals contribute greatly, and automobile, chemical industry and electronics are the main drag. From a microscopic point of view, the growth rate of electricity generation has dropped, and the growth rate of iron and steel and non-ferrous production has rebounded, but the growth rate of cement, coal and ethylene production has declined, and the decline in cars has expanded.

Huatai Macro Li Chao team: judging from the weak performance of PPI, industrial enterprise profit and PMI in the near future, we believe that it is difficult for the manufacturing sector to recover substantially in the future, and the weak performance of industrial production confirms that there is still downward pressure on the economy. With the increasing downward pressure on the economy, residents' consumption ability and willingness to consume have been greatly impacted, and the procyclicality of consumption has been gradually reflected. At present, in the absence of effective stimulus policies, the pessimism of consumption continues to heat up. The performance of manufacturing investment will be restricted by corporate profit expectations, so it is difficult to show a trend upward. The real estate industry chain is long, which has a great impact on China's macro-economy. Under the prominent downward pressure of the economy, it is expected that the first and second line real estate policy may be relaxed in the middle of 2019.

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