SMM11, 19 March: as of November 15, China's economic data for October have basically been released. On the whole, there is certain downward pressure on China's economy. Manufacturing expansion slowed down in October, and social liquidity was not abundant. People prefer time deposits, and the problem of difficult and expensive financing for private enterprises is widespread. Early international oil prices hit a new high to support domestic PPI, fresh vegetables, egg prices fell, so that inflationary pressure is not large in the short term. Car drag agency zero growth unexpectedly slowed, cars and mobile phones dragged down industrial production continued to be depressed. Infrastructure growth picked up for the first time this year, and policy support is at work. While the pattern of weak external demand has not changed, domestic demand is still needed to stabilize GDP.
Official PMI and private PMI data have fallen to varying degrees, hovering around the withered line of 50, indicating that manufacturing expansion is slowing, business confidence in the manufacturing sector is not strong, or the willingness to continue to invest is not enough. According to the analysis of the Bureau of Statistics, there are some phenomena in the manufacturing industry, such as the decline of market demand growth, the reduction of raw material inventory, the decline of enterprise consumption, the slowdown of delivery time of raw material suppliers and so on. Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician, interpreted that the October data were affected by the "National Day holiday" some fluctuations, but the manufacturing industry as a whole continued to grow, the growth rate has slowed.
Trade account: higher-than-expected imports and exports in October were affected by rush shipments and devaluation of the renminbi
Imports and exports exceeded expectations in October, with a lower-than-expected trade surplus of $35.15 billion and down 7.8 per cent from a year earlier.
Imports come mainly from imports of resource goods, not consumer goods. Crude oil imports rose to 40.8 million tons in October, a sharp increase of 31.5 percent over the same period last year, with the total amount of imports up as high as 89 percent over the same period last year, and 7.3 million tons of natural gas, up 25.6 percent from a year earlier. With the exception of copper ore imports fell year-on-year, imports of other major commodities have rebounded year-on-year.
Exports are still buoyed by rush shipments and the devaluation of the renminbi, but exports and imports to the United States both fell. Overall, exports to Europe, the United States and Japan weakened slightly, and exports to developing countries strengthened. Considering that exports were relatively low in October last year, the effect of the data base in October this year was obvious, and the RMB dropped to 6.93 from 6.84 in September, which was conducive to the recovery of export data. Compared with the previous month, the export data was nearly US $10 billion. The pattern of weak real external demand has not changed.
External storage: continue to be under pressure for three months in a row
This is the third consecutive month of decline in foreign exchange reserves, and there is an accelerated decline, but the problem is not big, management has full confidence in the RMB, and the trade account is still dominated by a surplus. The pressure on the decline in foreign exchange reserves is mainly due to capital outflows, expectations of the Fed raising interest rates have been fulfilled, and emerging market currencies will continue to come under pressure. Li Yong, an analyst at Northeast Securities, said that the people's Bank of China will continue to be under pressure on the maintenance of the exchange rate, foreign exchange holdings and foreign exchange reserves, and that the decline in foreign exchange share in November is expected to be even larger, and the short-term exchange rate will stabilize with the support of the central bank.
PPI fell back for the fourth month in a row
PPI fell for the fourth month in a row, and CPI was flat from the previous month. PPI is still supported by oil-related industries, with oil and gas mining up 42.8 per cent year-on-year and oil, coal and other fuel processing up 24 per cent, mainly due to base factors. The balance of CPI was mainly due to the decline in food prices, which was affected by the centralized listing of autumn vegetables. Food prices changed from rising to falling, fresh vegetable prices fell 3.5 percent from the previous month, and egg prices fell 3.3 percent from the previous month. Among them, the price of fuel for transportation increased the most. It was up 4.2% from the previous month. Overall, inflation remained low in October, both CPI and PPI are expected to maintain a downward trend during the year, and inflationary pressures are not significant for the year.
The gap between M2 and M1 scissors continues to expand.
Social finance and M2 are two sides of the same hard currency. From M2, financial institutions are debtors, and from social finance, financial institutions are creditors.
The main drag on October's social data was new renminbi loans, which was only half of September's, and the scale of off-balance-sheet financing continued to shrink sharply, indicating that strong financial regulation has not yet been relaxed, and off-balance-sheet loans continue to shift to the balance sheet. The number of new local government bonds in September shrank sharply from the previous month. The weak credit data, reflecting the downturn in credit expansion and raising concerns about downward pressure on the Chinese economy, should be the "subtext" of the Politburo meeting at the end of October to woo private companies and boost market confidence.
M2 hit an all-time low in October, and the scissors gap between M2 and M1 continued to widen, indicating that people are more willing to choose time deposits, depressed credit creation activities and a lack of confidence in the future economy.
Social zero fell to its lowest level since May
Consumption data fell 0.6% in October, the lowest since May, with cars being the biggest drag, down 6.4% from a year earlier and negative growth for five months in a row. Zhang Yi, an economist at Zhongsheng Rong, believes that, given that large-scale unemployment has not yet occurred, the increase in household leverage and the expected deterioration are the main factors contributing to the decline in social zero growth rate, and it is expected that the continued zero social consumption will remain at the level of 8% to 9%.
Industrial value added continues to hover below 6%
In October, the growth rate of industrial value added continued to hover below 6%, which is relatively low in recent years. Industrial value added, that is, the rate of industrial growth, reflects the prosperity of the industrial economy. Cars and mobile phones are the main drag. Car production fell 9.2% in October, the fourth straight month of decline in growth, with car production down 7.1%. Production of mobile handsets fell 11.65 from a year earlier.
Increase in investment in fixed assets
The growth rate of fixed asset investment rose for the second month in a row from January to October, with investment in the manufacturing sector rising 9.1 percent from a year earlier, 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous three quarters, and picking up for the seventh month in a row. Infrastructure investment rose 3.7 percent from a year earlier, 0.4 percentage points higher than in the previous three quarters and the first recovery of the year. Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the acceleration of infrastructure investment shows that the current policies of encouraging, supporting, and guiding private enterprises to enter infrastructure areas such as PPP projects are seeing results, and the implementation of the policies is being intensified. For example, the construction of infrastructure projects suspended in the previous period has been resumed one after another, and the progress of some major water conservancy, transportation, energy and other infrastructure projects has been accelerated, reflecting the role of policy support in the recovery of infrastructure investment.
