August downstream PMI report-cars, machinery continue to perform poorly, September and October peak season need to be cautious

Summary of key points:

In August 2018, the PMI composite index was 49.80, up 3.19 from the previous month and down 2.45 from the same period last year. After the quarter adjustment, the composite index was 49.69, down 2.61 from the previous month and 2.52 from the same period last year.

Taken together, this month's PMI composite index and quarterly adjusted composite index are lower than the 50 withered glory line, reflecting the overall demand downstream is weak. This month's composite production index was 48.05, up 4.17 from the previous month, down 3.12 from the same period last year, and some industries were restricted from starting production this month due to the effects of weather and environmental protection. The new order index was 51.66, up 6.93 from the previous month, down 5.38 from the same period last year, the overall order of the downstream industry increased month-on-month, the price of raw materials is too high, the procurement is still cautious, September and October or the peak season is not strong.

The PMI index of steel in August looks at the following points:

The PMI composite index of the construction industry was 49.69, up 1.70 from the previous month and down 3.29 from the same period last year. After the quarterly adjustment, the composite index was 48.73, down 4.23 from the previous month and 3.36 from the same period last year. The construction industry as a whole is in a normal state of work this month, with construction sites in some areas restricted by weather, capital and other factors. Most of the construction sites said they were expected to start work in September, and construction is expected to rise next month.

The PMI composite index of the machinery industry was 49.96, up 7.31 from the previous month and 1.05 from the same period last year. After the quarterly adjustment, the composite index was 51.72, up 1.70 from the previous month and 1.10 from the same period last year. The industry as a whole is still in the off-season this month, but the decline in production orders has narrowed, with most manufacturers still running low inventories due to tight funding and the risk of rising raw materials prices.

The PMI composite index of the automobile industry was 47.79, up 2.47 from the previous month and down 11.65 from the same period last year. After the quarterly adjustment, the composite index fell 47.39, down 7.80 from the previous month and 11.62 from the same period last year. The overall performance of the industry this month is still not very optimistic, due to the poor expectations for September and October, coupled with the high price of raw materials, manufacturers to consume the original inventory and on-demand procurement.

The PMI composite index of the shipbuilding industry was 51.51, down 1.57 from the previous month and 0.02 from the same period last year. After the quarterly adjustment, the composite index was 51.61, down 3.64 from the previous month and 0.2 from the same period last year. This month, the overall situation of the industry continued to remain optimistic, enterprises are still mainly on-demand procurement. Some large shipping enterprises need to recruit temporary workers to catch up with the production progress because of the full order, and the high price of raw materials weakens the export order.

The PMI composite index of the home appliance industry was 50.85, up 7.64 from the previous month and 1.33 from the same period last year. After the quarterly adjustment, the composite index was 53.33, up 3.23 from the previous month and 1.49 from the same period last year. This month, as a result of ahead of schedule for the National Day promotion season and Shuangxiu online and offline activities to make preparations, the industry production gradually began to improve. Some enterprises' export orders have not been greatly affected by the trade war and have maintained a smooth operation.

The PMI composite index of the transportation infrastructure industry was 51.51, up 2.08 from the previous month and down 0.11 from the same period last year. After the quarterly adjustment, the composite index was 53.11, up 1.08 from the previous month and 0.12 from the same period last year. This month, the transportation infrastructure industry as a whole has improved, some of the early suspended projects began to resume, capital pressure superimposed by the rise in raw material prices led to enterprises to purchase cautiously.