8.14: the price difference of superimposed thread high concussion coil is expected to be extreme in peak season.

Summary of Today's Futures Market

Volume and price: today's coil price spread before the continuation of the extreme market, as of today's close at-100. Today, the transfer of positions in the main contract of Thread 1810 continued, with a reduction of about 140000 positions and a reduction of about 30 000 positions in 1901 contracts. Of all the varieties traded today, there was a net outflow of thread iron ore (thread outflow of 740 million, iron ore outflow of 400 million).

Intraday trend: today's internal thread to high small shock adjustment, still with the basic metal out of the relatively independent market, intraday volatility is on the low side.

Short trend: August belongs to the traditional off-season alternate month, August thread out of the independent market in August this year due to the "off-season is not light" under the continued decline. Relatively low inventory and environmental protection is still the basic support of the futures end, superimposed yesterday thread breakthrough early 4260 resistance level, short trend to maintain easy to rise and fall to judge. Tomorrow, 1810 contract range (4289, 4378), multiple stop loss 4266, 1901 contract range (4093, 4192), multiple stop loss 4068. Are mainly to do long, buy on the cheap, should not chase more.

Long-term trend: at the macro level, it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure in the second half of the year will pick up, good building materials, and some of the policy hedges are on the short side a year ago. The risk point is yesterday's July macro data release, the economy still has downside risks and the traditional peak season "peak season is not strong." Long-term trend to see the high shock, careful to look more.

Analysis of arbitrage ratios today:

Disk profit: steel mill disk profit is 1447, a new high. The last trading day was 1440. Today, with the main ore contract pullback, futures disk profits continue to rise. In operation, it is recommended that the position of holding long futures disk profit should be stopped in the early stage to prevent the risk of pullback. The long-term trend still looks at repeated highs of disk profits. There is limited room for decline.

The coking panel profit was 1.97, compared with 1.97 on the last trading day. The same as the previous trading day. Spot end, coke ushered in the third round of price adjustment, the futures end of the performance of the near month is stronger than the far month. Overall, the weak pattern of Jiaoqiang coal continues. In operation, it is recommended to buy 1901 contract coking surface profit on the low side. Previously held to take a long position recommended partial closure of the position to prevent the risk of a pullback.