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[SMM Analysis] Black performance is not good lead Nickel lead up Colored Plate
Aug 8,2018 17:17CST
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM, Aug. 8: on Wednesday, most black varieties performed poorly, coke dived sharply, closing down nearly 2.5 percent, and coking coal and hot rolls were also weak. Crude oil fell nearly 1.5%. Non-ferrous metals as a whole were strong, with Shanghai lead and Shanghai Nickel rising by 2.58% and 1.89% respectively, Shanghai Copper by 0.3%, Shanghai Aluminum by 0.03%, Shanghai Zinc by 0.7% and Shanghai Tin by 0.46%.

Trade relations between China and the United States continue to be tense, and China's inflation figures, to be released tomorrow, deserve a lot of attention.

Today's capital flow

In terms of capital flow, today's domestic commodity capital is mainly inflow, feed plate is favored by funds, soybean meal futures attracted 430 million capital addition. But the coal plate lost 935 million of its blood, of which coke futures were abandoned by 558 million.

A brief comment by SMM analysts on Aug. 8

Copper: the main 1810 contract of Shanghai copper opened at 49470 yuan / tonne this morning. at the beginning of the session, the copper price climbed slightly to 49610 yuan / ton, and then briefly consolidated along the line of 49550 yuan / ton. The second trading session, long a large number of positions, copper prices rely on the daily average, step by step upward, afternoon touch up 49760 yuan / ton, near the end of the day, long profit-taking, copper prices fell back, closed at 49530 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton. Positions increased by 9824 hands to 167000 hands, while transactions decreased by 13000 hands to 172000 hands. Copper prices fell back after hitting high today, gaining a 5-day moving average and a 20-day moving average support level. China's import and export growth rate rose higher than expected in July, domestic market confidence picked up, basic metals rose sharply across the board today, and the entry of long funds increased significantly, but it is still much shorter. The one-day capital inflow of the nonferrous plate was 591 million yuan, and that of the Shanghai copper plate was 200 million yuan. Evening focus on the week-on-week MBA mortgage application activity index, Richmond Fed Chairman's speech and the United States that week EIA gasoline, crude oil inventory changes data, is expected to test the 5-day moving average support capacity.

Aluminum: today, the main force of Shanghai Aluminum completed a new month. the main 1810 contract opened at 14450 yuan / ton in the morning, and bulls gradually entered the market at the beginning of the plate. in the morning, Shanghai Aluminum closed in 14450 ≤ 14,470 yuan / tonne. in the second trading session, Shanghai Aluminum jumped up the daily average and touched 14500 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, it further rushed up 14520 yuan / ton, subject to a correction in the price at the end of the 5-day moving average, and sorted out the price at 14480 yuan / tonne. finally, it closed at 14495 yuan / ton, with trading volume increasing by 3202 hands to 109674 hands, and position increased by 6672 hands to 234864 hands. Shanghai Aluminum 1809 contract position continued to move backward. Shanghai Aluminum's main 1810 contract fell 5 yuan, or 0.03 per cent, to close. Today, Shanghai aluminum fundamentals lack of direct power, maintain the concussion situation, is expected to continue to test 60-day line in the evening.

Zinc: today, the main 1810 contract of Shanghai Zinc opened at 21480 yuan / tonne. at the beginning of the session, long positions came into the market, boosting Shanghai Zinc to a high of 21620 yuan / tonne. then short bulls left the market one after another when Gao Ping left the market, and the center of gravity of Shanghai Zinc sank slightly to 21535 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, Shanghai zinc rose again, hitting an intraday high of 21625 yuan / ton before breaking, and then continued to show weakness in the upward trend, and the air entered more flat. Shanghai zinc involvement fell back to the daily average to find support and in the daily average along the 21500 yuan / ton concussion finishing. It closed up 21525 yuan, or 0.63 percent, from the close of the previous session, with volume up 34386 hands to 508000 hands and positions up 4788 hands to 165000 hands. Shanghai zinc center of gravity up, technical index KDJ opening upward, there is no turning trend, at night or continue to run around 21500 yuan / ton near the strong shock, we need to pay attention to the outer disk guidelines.

Lead: the main 1809 contract for Shanghai lead opened at 18245 yuan per tonne. Shanghai lead rose strongly all day, mainly due to short profits, near the end of the session, as the Sino-US trade situation became more tense, and short positions stopped earnings from leaving the market, and Shanghai lead once climbed to 18565 yuan per ton. After the bullish panic, the Shanghai lead high fell back to avoid risk at night, and Shanghai lead fell slightly to close at 18455 yuan / ton, up 465 yuan / ton, up 2.58 percent, and the position was reduced by 1666 hands to 60468 hands. Shanghai lead closed Dayang line, has broken through the 10-day line and 20-day line, 5-day line inflection upward, temporarily stabilize the market mood, but two consecutive days of gains mainly due to short positions out of the market, it is expected that night Shanghai lead or around the 20-day line consolidation. Pay attention to the trend of lead at night.

Nickel: Shanghai Nickel 1811 opened at 113180 yuan / ton today. Today, the dollar weakened to support the rise in non-ferrous metals, LME, last period inventories continued to decline, at a nearly two-year low. At the beginning of the plate, long increased positions, Shanghai nickel concussion upward, the upper pressure of 114500 yuan / ton level after a small dip, and then bulls continued to increase positions, Shanghai nickel touched a high of 114690 yuan / ton, the highest point in nearly a month. Then bulls lack of confidence, profit-taking, after 2 p.m., Shanghai nickel concussion fell, below the daily average support, a small upward, closing at 114110 yuan / ton. Shanghai Nickel Index capital inflow of 349 million yuan, ranking first in non-ferrous metals. Throughout the day, 1811 of the main Shanghai nickel contracts closed on the Xiaoyang line, up 2120 yuan, or 1.89 percent, from the previous day's settlement price. Trading volume decreased by 47000 hands to 701000 hands, while position volume increased by 40 000 hands to 281000 hands. Daily line technology KDJ opening up, MACD red column longer. Shanghai nickel may fluctuate around the range of 113800 yuan / ton at night. In the evening, you should pay attention to the week-on-week comparison of the MBA Mortgage Application activity Index for the week of Aug. 3 in the United States, a speech by Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin (voting rights) in Virginia, and the change in EIA gasoline stocks (10,000 barrels) in the United States in the week of Aug. 3. EIA crude oil stocks changed (10, 000 barrels) in the week of Aug. 3 in the United States.

Tin: yesterday night Shanghai tin 1809 contract slightly higher after a concussion all the way down, the lowest hit 146050 yuan / ton, the end of the market in the vicinity of 146400 yuan / ton consolidation; Today, the opening of 146290 yuan / ton, the trend picked up again during the day, supported by short positions continued to maintain the upward trend, afternoon high of 147190 yuan / ton, the final close of 147130 yuan / ton, up 180 yuan / ton from the previous day's closing price. The transaction was 11566 hands minus 1216 hands, and the position was 19208 hands less than 888 hands. Today, most of the metals in Shanghai closed red, Shanghai tin tail broke through the 60-day moving average resistance, short-term testing continued to rise, the upper resistance of 149000 yuan / ton.

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