[SMM Analysis] US dollar stabilizes 90 volatile uplink non-ferrous metals plummeted Shanghai Aluminum fell nearly 2 per cent

SMM2 8: non-ferrous metals suffered a heavy setback today, Shanghai copper fell nearly 2%, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai lead, Shanghai tin fell more than 1%, only Shanghai aluminum rose slightly. Black series concussion differentiation, hot roll, iron ore rose slightly, iron ore rose weakly; thread fell slightly, coking coal fell slightly.

Led by the external market, non-ferrous metals generally plummeted. Despite the rebound in US stocks, the global commodity sell-off intensified, panic remained, the US dollar index rose strongly by 90 in the evening, crude oil prices fell sharply, copper prices also fell sharply, Shanghai copper continued its decline, and yesterday's night trading volume fell. The main contract hit a two-month low of 51610 yuan / ton, and the Japanese market remained low and volatile, closing down 1.83 per cent. Other metals softened, with Shanghai zinc, Shanghai nickel and Shanghai lead all down more than 1%. Copper for LME fell about 3 per cent on Wednesday, while other base metals also fell as stocks returned to this week's volatility and investors worried that copper fundamentals would not be able to support current price levels. At the same time, the decline in oil prices and the rise in the dollar have also put pressure on the market.

Today's capital flow

In terms of capital flows, non-ferrous metals fell across the board and were abandoned by 580 million of the funds, with Shanghai Nickel leading the way with an outflow of 280 million. The black line was reduced by 560 million, of which iron ore lost 200 million blood and coke flowed out 180 million.

On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Michael McConnell announced a bipartisan budget deal that could avoid Friday's government shutdown and end months of gridlock over spending priorities, with the dollar index back at the 90 level. A number of Fed officials, including Philadelphia Fed Chairman Huck, still have a chance to speak publicly tonight. Commodity markets are also looking at the USDA monthly supply and demand report, which will be released at 1:00 on Friday.

A brief comment by SMM analysts on Feb. 8

Copper: today, the main 1804 contract for Shanghai copper opened at 51820 yuan / tonne. after opening, copper prices first briefly fell to 51780 yuan / ton, then slowly rose to near the daily average of 52147 yuan / tonne. in the afternoon, some short positions made profits, and copper prices jumped up to the daily average. After touching as high as 52400 yuan per ton, long positions left the market, and copper prices fell back to the daily average. they ended at 52120 yuan per ton, down 950 yuan per tonne. the position increased by 5056 hands to 227000 hands, and trading volume increased by 134000 hands to 302000 hands. Positions in the Shanghai copper index rose 5362 to 786000. Shanghai Copper is expected to follow Lun Copper's center of gravity to continue to move down in the evening. (Xu Jinqiao, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network)

Lead: within days, the main lead contract in Shanghai opened at 19125 yuan / tonne. after opening, the lead in Shanghai period recovered slightly, rising slightly to 19160 yuan / ton, but the kinetic energy of the long head was insufficient, the pressure at the 60-day moving average was obvious, and the long profit position was reduced in the afternoon. With some short positions coming in, Shanghai lead basically gave up its daytime gain to close at 19080 yuan a tonne, down 195 yuan, or 1.01 per cent. Volume decreased by 1862 hands to 46594 hands, and position by 3966 hands to 31164 hands. Shanghai lead around the 60-day moving average concussion finishing, the top 19200 yuan platform under pressure, the lower test Wanjiu pass support, the evening continuation of the concussion consolidation trend, but still need to be vigilant against the risk of decline. (Xia Wenming, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network)

Zinc: within days, the main 1804 contract of Shanghai Zinc opened at 26190 yuan / tonne. at the beginning of the session, the main contract opened at 26190 yuan / tonne. at the beginning of the session, the main contract opened at 26190 yuan / tonne. at the beginning of the session, the main contract opened at 26190 yuan / tonne. at the beginning of the day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc was opened at 26190 yuan / ton. at the beginning of the day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc The pressure of the upper 20 days line is strong, the trend of Shanghai zinc test is relatively stable, some short positions take advantage of the deficiency, and the daily average of Shanghai zinc falls, and the daily average of pressure near 26240 yuan / ton is narrow and consolidated. The close fell by 0.76% to 26270 yuan / tonne, with volume up 97588 hands to 288000 hands and positions up 142 hands to 262.55 million hands. Shanghai zinc repair part of the night market decline, from the morphological point of view, Shanghai zinc recorded three consecutive negative, the center of gravity gradually sank, short-term adjustment may continue, it is expected to continue to test 40-day line support in the evening. (Li Ling, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network)

Tin: last night Shanghai tin 1805 contract concussion fell, as part of the long profit closed; Today, bulls continued to take a large number of positions out of the market, Shanghai tin trend further concussion downward, the lowest hit 149190 yuan / ton at the end of the day, the final close of 149360 yuan / ton, down 1670 yuan / ton from the previous day, down 1.11 per cent. The transaction was 27406 hands minus 634 hands, and the position was reduced by 26142 hands by 2944 hands. Today, domestic non-ferrous metals generally fell, Shanghai tin followed the fall, affected by the surrounding market and pre-festival profit funds to leave the market demand, short-term trend is expected to continue to bear pressure, below the support of 147000 yuan / ton. (Wu Xiaofeng, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network)

Nickel: today, Shanghai Nickel 1805 opened at 100500 yuan / ton, opening long positions, Shanghai nickel straight down 99230 yuan / ton, after the short position of Shanghai nickel concussion rose, recovered 100, 000 customs, intraday hit a high of 101290 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the daily average of Shanghai nickel pressure fluctuated narrowly, closing at 100470 yuan / ton. Throughout the day, 1805 of the main Shanghai nickel contract closed at the lower shadow of the longer Zhongyin line, down 1530 yuan / ton, or 1.50 per cent, from the previous day's settlement price. Volume increased by 214000 to 1.438 million, while position decreased by 26000 to 449000. The daily technical index KDJ opened downward, the MACD green column became longer, the daily outflow of funds of 280 million yuan, the night attention to the bottom 40 antenna support, the evening attention to the Bank of England interest rate resolution and the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week of Feb. 3. (Zhao Manxiang, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network)

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