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SMM Evening Comments (Apr 15)
Apr 15,2019 17:38CST
price review forecast
SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Apr 15 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals, except for nickel, ended higher on Monday April 15. Tin nudged up 0.71%, zinc grew 0.65%, lead increased 0.46%, copper rose 0.41%, and aluminum went flat. 

The ferrous complex also increased as coke jumped over 2%, hot-rolled coil advanced 1.74%, rebar gained 1.38%, coking coal rose 1.14%, and iron ore grew slightly. 

Copper: The most-liquid SHFE June contract slid from above the daily moving average and stemmed its decline at the around 49,450 yuan/mt. With support at the 40-day moving average, it settled at 49,400 yuan/mt. Open interests shrank 3,258 lots to 182,000 lots. The SHFE April contract was delivered today with the settlement price at 48,980 yuan/mt. Delivery volume was 28,100 mt. We expect the June contract to test support at 49,400 yuan/mt tonight.   

Aluminium: The most-traded SHFE May contract declined after it rose to a high of 13,910 yuan/mt and ended flat on the day at 13,835 yuan/mt. The MACD red line shortened and the KDJ indicators expanded downwards. Open interests across all SHFE aluminium contracts lost 5,792 lots to 679,000 lots. Recovering consumption extended declines in social inventories of primary aluminium, by 14,000 mt from last Thursday as of Monday April 15, and this may expand upward room in the contract tonight. 

Zinc: The most-active SHFE June contract traded between the five- and 10-day moving averages today, with cautious investors withdrawing capital. The contract closed at 22,500 yuan/mt, with open interests down 4,404 lots to 237,000 lots. A buildup in LME zinc inventories may drag the contract to test support at the five-day moving average tonight. The SHFE April contract was delivered today with the settlement price at 22,685 yuan/mt, and delivery volume of 35,300 mt. 

Nickel: The most-active SHFE June contract rebounded from an intraday low of 100,330 yuan/mt, to a high of 101,640 yuan/mt in early trades as shorts exited. It hovered around 101,350 yuan/mt and ended below the daily moving average, at 101,090 yuan/mt as investors cut their longs. Open interests lost 4,000 lots to 203,000 lots. The contract may continue to trade rangebound with pressure above tonight. 

Lead: The SHFE 1905 contract ended three consecutive trading days of declines as exiting shorts pulled it to a high of 16,475 yuan/mt before it closed at 16,440 yuan/mt. Open interests dropped 3,676 lots to 40,774 lots. The June contract became the most-traded contract, which rose to a high of 16,440 yuan/mt and closed at 16,420 yuan/mt. The April contract was delivered with the settlement price at 16,380 yuan/mt and delivery volume at 8,800 mt. 

Tin: Departing shorts lifted the most-active SHFE May contract to an intraday high of 148,060 yuan/mt before noon. It traded steadily around 147,900 yuan/mt in the afternoon and ended at 147,760 yuan/mt. Pressure above was at the 10-day moving average. We see it trading with support at 146,500 yuan/mt and resistance at 148,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Evening comments
Futures movement

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