Macro Roundup (Mar 11)

SHANGHAI, Mar 11 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last weekend and what is expected today.

Last weekend

The US dollar fell against most major currencies on Friday as data showed US employers hired far fewer workers than estimates in February, although the jobless rate fell and wages grew more than expected.

Base metals, except for LME aluminium, declined across the board as LME nickel led the losses and closed 1.06% lower. Copper dropped 0.61%, zinc dipped 0.6%, lead slid 0.59%, and tin went down 0.49%. SHFE metals kept their declines within 1%, as nickel lost 0.84%, lead fell 0.54%, and others inched down. 

China on Friday reported worse than expected trade data for February, customs data showed.

Dollar-denominated exports decreased 20.7% in February from a year ago, missing economists' expectations of a 4% decline. January exports rose 9.1% from a year ago.

Dollar-denominated imports fell 5.2% in February from a year ago, missing economists' forecast of a 0.9% fall. January imports dipped 1.5% year on year.

US job growth came to a near halt in February after a blistering start to the year, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by just 20,000 even as the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, the Labor Department reported last Friday.

This was the worst month for job creation since September 2017, when two major hurricanes hit the employment market, offset by a solid increase in wages.

"A shockingly low jobs figure for February does not change the labour market narrative by itself," said Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide. "The three-month trend in job gains remains solid while survey data suggest no letup in demand for workers by employers."

China's producer price index (PPI) in February rose 0.1% on the year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. This was the slowest pace since September 2016, and compared with a 0.1% increase in January.

"We see two main implications from the latest inflation prints: first, inflationary pressures remain subdued, possibly reflecting weakening growth momentum," said analysts at Nomura in a note to clients following the data release. "Second, CPI inflation will most likely remain far below the 2019 government target of 3% which points to plenty of policy space to ease ahead.”

The consumer price index (CPI) in February rose 1.5% from a year earlier, the slowest since January 2018 and dragged lower by easing food price inflation.

China's new yuan-denominated loans stood at 885.8 billion yuan (131 billion US dollars) in February 2019, up 46.5 billion yuan year on year, central bank data showed on Sunday March 10.

In the first two months, new yuan-denominated loans increased by 374.8 billion yuan year on year to hit 4.11 trillion yuan, according to the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

The M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, rose 8% year on year to 186.74 trillion yuan at the end of February, according to the PBOC.

The M2 growth stood 0.4 percentage point and 0.8 percentage point lower from the levels at the end of January and the same period last year, respectively.

Day ahead

Economic data slated for release today include Germany’s industrial output and trade balance for January, and the US retail sales in January.