Macro Roundup (Mar 7)

Data Analysis 08:26:12AM Mar 07, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Mar 7 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar held steady, while the Canadian dollar dipped to a two-month low as the Bank of Canada expressed caution about the timing of future rate increases, prompted by expected economic weakness in the first half of the year.

Like the Australian dollar, the Canadian currency faced pressure from expectations that their central banks might consider easing interest rates to counter further slowing in their local economies, analysts said.

Base metals declined for the most part as LME tin led the losses and fell 0.77%. LME copper and aluminium dipped 0.4%, nickel edged down, while zinc and lead nudged up. SHFE aluminium fell 0.4%, tin and lead declined over 0.3%, copper and nickel went down more than 0.2%, while zinc closed higher. 

The US economy is heading into a "new normal" of slower growth that likely will keep monetary policy restrained, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Wednesday March 6. 

After a year where the economy accelerated close to 3%, GDP likely will slow to 2% this year despite a mostly favourable backdrop domestically, he added.

Ten of the Fed’s 12 districts saw "slight-to-moderate" growth in late January and February, according to the Fed’s Beige Book report released Wednesday. The partial government led to slower activity in about six Fed districts. Sectors, including retail, auto sales, tourism, real estate, restaurants, manufacturing and staffing services were affected.

Employment in the US private sector increased by 183,000 jobs from January to February, the ADP announced in its latest employment report. This fell short of market expectations of 189,000 and came in below the previous reading of 300,000 (revised from 213,000). 

The job slowdown is most evident in the retail and travel industries, and at smaller companies, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. 

The US ran a trade deficit on goods and services of $621 billion in 2018, up more than 12% from the previous year, but still below the record $761 billion set back in 2006.

For December, the US trade deficit ballooned to a 10-year high of $59.8 billion, well ahead of expectations, despite President Donald Trump's efforts, the Commerce Department reported on March 6.

Slowing global growth reduced demand for US goods, while a stronger dollar upset the trade balance.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude supplies rose by 7.1 million barrels for the week ended March 1, above the expected growth of 1.2 million barrels. 

Supplies of gasoline fell by 4.2 million barrels, while distillates edged down by 2.4 million barrels last week, according to the EIA.

Day ahead

China will release data on its trade balance and foreign exchange reserve for February, the eurozone will release its final gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2018, and the US its weekly jobless claims. 

Key Words:  Macroeconomics 

Macro Roundup (Mar 7)

Data Analysis 08:26:12AM Mar 07, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Mar 7 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar held steady, while the Canadian dollar dipped to a two-month low as the Bank of Canada expressed caution about the timing of future rate increases, prompted by expected economic weakness in the first half of the year.

Like the Australian dollar, the Canadian currency faced pressure from expectations that their central banks might consider easing interest rates to counter further slowing in their local economies, analysts said.

Base metals declined for the most part as LME tin led the losses and fell 0.77%. LME copper and aluminium dipped 0.4%, nickel edged down, while zinc and lead nudged up. SHFE aluminium fell 0.4%, tin and lead declined over 0.3%, copper and nickel went down more than 0.2%, while zinc closed higher. 

The US economy is heading into a "new normal" of slower growth that likely will keep monetary policy restrained, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Wednesday March 6. 

After a year where the economy accelerated close to 3%, GDP likely will slow to 2% this year despite a mostly favourable backdrop domestically, he added.

Ten of the Fed’s 12 districts saw "slight-to-moderate" growth in late January and February, according to the Fed’s Beige Book report released Wednesday. The partial government led to slower activity in about six Fed districts. Sectors, including retail, auto sales, tourism, real estate, restaurants, manufacturing and staffing services were affected.

Employment in the US private sector increased by 183,000 jobs from January to February, the ADP announced in its latest employment report. This fell short of market expectations of 189,000 and came in below the previous reading of 300,000 (revised from 213,000). 

The job slowdown is most evident in the retail and travel industries, and at smaller companies, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. 

The US ran a trade deficit on goods and services of $621 billion in 2018, up more than 12% from the previous year, but still below the record $761 billion set back in 2006.

For December, the US trade deficit ballooned to a 10-year high of $59.8 billion, well ahead of expectations, despite President Donald Trump's efforts, the Commerce Department reported on March 6.

Slowing global growth reduced demand for US goods, while a stronger dollar upset the trade balance.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude supplies rose by 7.1 million barrels for the week ended March 1, above the expected growth of 1.2 million barrels. 

Supplies of gasoline fell by 4.2 million barrels, while distillates edged down by 2.4 million barrels last week, according to the EIA.

Day ahead

China will release data on its trade balance and foreign exchange reserve for February, the eurozone will release its final gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2018, and the US its weekly jobless claims. 

Key Words:  Macroeconomics