Macro Roundup (Mar 1)

Data Analysis 08:38:34AM Mar 01, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Mar 1 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

LME base metals traded mixed on Thursday. Aluminium dropped 0.9% and copper fell 0.6% while lead, tin and zinc rose about 0.4%, nickel nudged up 0.04%.

SHFE base metals also saw mixed performance overnight. Lead saw the biggest gain of 1.5%, nickel climbed 0.7%, zinc gained 0.5% and tin advanced 0.2%. Copper and aluminium lost some 0.2%.

The US dollar index rebounded from earlier lows on Thursday, after US data showed growth in the world's largest economy was stronger than expected in the fourth quarter.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that US gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 2.6% annualised rate in the fourth quarter after expanding at a 3.4% pace in the third quarter. Economists had expected growth of just 2.2%.

For the year, annual 2018 real GDP increased by 2.9%, the best performance since 2015, and better than the 2.2% in 2017.

The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week and the number of people on unemployment rolls increased to a 10-month high, suggesting some slowing in the labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ended February 23, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported.

In China, factory activity contracted for a third straight month in February, with the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) coming in at 49.2 in February, down from 49.5 in January, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.

NBS senior statistician Zhao Qinghe attributed the monthly decline in the manufacturing PMI to seasonal factors including production halts around the Chinese Lunar New Year.

In Germany, the inflation rate, measured by the consumer price index (CPI), is expected to be 1.6% in February compared with the same time last year, and 0.5% from the previous month, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

The White House announced Thursday that the Vietnam summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had been cut short with no agreement reached.

Day ahead

Caixin February manufacturing PMI for China will be due today.

In Germany, retail sales for January, unemployment rate for February and Markit manufacturing PMI for February will be released.

In the Eurozone, Markit manufacturing PMI and CPI for February as well as unemployment rate for January will also be released.

US economic data slated for release include personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index and personal spending for December, Markit and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for February.

Key Words:  Macroeconomics  

Macro Roundup (Mar 1)

Data Analysis 08:38:34AM Mar 01, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Mar 1 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

LME base metals traded mixed on Thursday. Aluminium dropped 0.9% and copper fell 0.6% while lead, tin and zinc rose about 0.4%, nickel nudged up 0.04%.

SHFE base metals also saw mixed performance overnight. Lead saw the biggest gain of 1.5%, nickel climbed 0.7%, zinc gained 0.5% and tin advanced 0.2%. Copper and aluminium lost some 0.2%.

The US dollar index rebounded from earlier lows on Thursday, after US data showed growth in the world's largest economy was stronger than expected in the fourth quarter.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that US gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 2.6% annualised rate in the fourth quarter after expanding at a 3.4% pace in the third quarter. Economists had expected growth of just 2.2%.

For the year, annual 2018 real GDP increased by 2.9%, the best performance since 2015, and better than the 2.2% in 2017.

The number of Americans filing applications for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week and the number of people on unemployment rolls increased to a 10-month high, suggesting some slowing in the labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ended February 23, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported.

In China, factory activity contracted for a third straight month in February, with the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) coming in at 49.2 in February, down from 49.5 in January, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.

NBS senior statistician Zhao Qinghe attributed the monthly decline in the manufacturing PMI to seasonal factors including production halts around the Chinese Lunar New Year.

In Germany, the inflation rate, measured by the consumer price index (CPI), is expected to be 1.6% in February compared with the same time last year, and 0.5% from the previous month, according to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

The White House announced Thursday that the Vietnam summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had been cut short with no agreement reached.

Day ahead

Caixin February manufacturing PMI for China will be due today.

In Germany, retail sales for January, unemployment rate for February and Markit manufacturing PMI for February will be released.

In the Eurozone, Markit manufacturing PMI and CPI for February as well as unemployment rate for January will also be released.

US economic data slated for release include personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index and personal spending for December, Markit and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for February.

Key Words:  Macroeconomics