Primary aluminium inventories extend gains as consumption yet to recover

Futures: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2605 futures contract opened at 2,940 yuan/mt in the night session, hit a high of 2,947 yuan/mt and a low of 2,904 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,917 yuan/mt, down 22 yuan/mt from the previous day; open interest increased by 1,414 lots to 224,400 lots, with bulls and bears still locked in a tug-of-war. Technically, the closing price was below MA5 (2,983.60) and MA10 (3,007.20), indicating some overhead resistance to further gains, but remained above MA30 (2,892.70), providing some support at the bottom. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator showed DEA (50.64) crossing above DIF (43.42), forming a low-level death cross, with the histogram at -14.44. Alumina futures are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and continued attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, the commissioning plan for new capacity, and inventory changes.

[Mixed Macro News Signals, Aluminum Prices Are Expected to Mainly Fluctuate and Adjust] Overall, the situation in the Middle East remained a key concern. If aluminum smelters in the Middle East further cut production, it is expected to provide upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China. However, China’s social inventory continued to build up, with ample supply available, which is expected to put a ceiling on SHFE aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and adjust.