Macro Roundup (Nov 30)

SHANGHAI, Nov 30 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar recovered but remained under 97 as concerns before the G20 meeting prompted investors to buy back the currency. Comments by the Federal Reserve chief were seen as a signal that a rising trend in interest rates may end, and this also supported the greenback. 

At the G20 summit in Buenos Aires on Friday and Saturday, the US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping are scheduled to discuss trade issues after months of tension between the world's two biggest economies. 

The pound fell against the US dollar on concerns about the UK parliament's vote on Brexit and after the Bank of England warned of risks to the currency in the event of a no-deal, disorderly Brexit.

Base metals closed mixed as SHFE nickel led the increase and jumped 1.47%. LME nickel grew 1.33%, tin gained 0.79%, lead increased 0.31%, while copper fell 0.74%, zinc and aluminium inched down. SHFE base metals, except for aluminium, rose across the board. 

German annual inflation accelerated slower than expected in November but stayed well above the European Central Bank's (ECB) target. 

Germany's consumer price index (CPI) for November was 2.3% compared to last year’s 2.5%, with an expectation of it only falling to 2.4% on an annualised basis. The CPI edged up 0.1% month on month in November, compared to an expected price growth of 0.2%. 

The ECB expects an inflation rate slightly below 2% for the single-currency bloc.

The US weekly jobless claims increased to a six-month high last week, which raised concerns that the labour market could be slowing.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 234,000 for the week ended November 24, the highest level since mid-May, the Labor Department said on Thursday. This marked the third straight week of increase. 

The claims data included Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, claims tend to be volatile around holidays. 

The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labour market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, increased 4,750 to 223,250 last week. Its jobless rate is at a near 49-year low of 3.7%. The labour market is viewed as being near or at full employment.

US consumer spending rose by the most in seven months in October, but underlying price pressures slowed, with an inflation measure tracked by the Federal Reserve registering its smallest annual increase since February.

Consumer spending rose 0.6% in October, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. This beat expectations of 0.4%.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding the volatile food and energy components edged up 0.1% after rising 0.2% in September.

That lowered the year-on-year increase in the so-called core PCE price index to 1.8%, the lowest reading since February, from 1.9% in September. The core PCE index is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation.

Day ahead

Economic data slated for release today include China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), Germany’s retail sales for October, and the eurozone’s consumer price index (CPI) for November. The G20 summit begins today in Argentina.